저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 2018년 2월 조정 이후 미국 증시가 2~3월 약세를 보이다가 연준 금리 인상 이후 반등할 것으로 전망했다. 향후 베어마켓이 오면 올해 이후 가장 심각할 수 있으며, 2009년 이후 9년간 상승한 강세장이 이미 정점을 지났을 가능성을 언급했다. 다만 마지막 상승 구간(1999년 나스닥처럼)이 남아 있을 수 있다고 덧붙였다. 중국발 부채 문제가 다음 위기의 발원지가 될 수 있고, 중국 기업·은행의 파산이 나올 것이라 경고했다. 위기는 보통 주목받지 않는 곳에서 시작된다고 말했다. 금은 현재 보유 중이며 장기간 보유해 왔고, 큰 폭 하락 시 추가 매수할 계획이다. 다만 위기 국면에서 금이 버블 수준으로 과대평가될 수 있다고 봤다. 비트코인은 보유하지 않으며 매수 계획도 없다. 대부분의 신생 자산과 버블처럼 사라질 가능성이 크고, 미래 화폐는 인터넷·컴퓨터 상의 형태가 될 것이라 전망했다. 발언 시점과 관련 자산 가격 수준은 자막만으로 확인되지 않으며, 2018년 영상이므로 현재 시점에서는 결과 검증이 필요하다.
다듬은 글
- Massa Jim Rogers Judah Hiroki chairman Hal Rogers holding scale Jim hi me here here can you hear me how are you fine could you hear me yeah I can hear you very loud and clear we had a chat yesterday only but I didn't know that you will be so bang on that us markets will give up a 5% of their gains in one day only you mentioned 10% drop 5% drop yesterday itself well it's only because I learned everything from CBS you know that that's that's so nice of you but I mean see we have all the intraday basis also if we see we have scenery bound in Dow futures and before you joined us what we were trying to figure out was that will this recovery get sold into because typically that happens you know in a heavy sell off whenever market recovers typically it gets sold into what is your view but now you know I'm the world's worst market timer I'm no good at short-term trading but what I expect to happen is that the market will be weak throughout February March maybe into March once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates the markets will start rallying and then we have to decide what to do next part of the reason the markets are going down now is that well first they went up so much for so long with no correction it's well overdue for correction as we discussed now we're going to happen in the correction until they raise interest rates people will buy on the news and then we'll have to figure out what to do next just watch the bills you don't need to talk to me that's true Jim also you know lately in last may be one and you have seen markets for many decades now but in last one or two years the typical tendency of all large markets globally including India u.s.
Hong Kong the typical tendency is that the corrections have been very sharp but very short-lived you expect this trend to continue well I depends on how you consider short-lived sure as I said I expect the markets to be weak in February into March until they until they raise interest rates and then we'll start rallying again but the next time we have a bear market I want to remind you it's gonna be the worst in your lifetime we haven't had a bear market since night 2009 that's nine years which is very much longer than historically the way things work and then 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt well you know as well as I that the debt is much much much higher everywhere in the world now even in China which had virtually no debt last time so the next time we have a problem it's gonna be terrible you better watch CBIZ that's again i would like to thank you for that that's so nice of you what is the probability of a next serious global slowdown or a meltdown originating from China because there have been concerns in China about the kind of credit rating that they are managing about the kind of debt they are running about the so called management of the books which is happening in Chinese banks China had no debt for many decades I mean nobody would lend money to Mao tse-tung's so they didn't have any debt for a long time now they do and it's gonna you're gonna see some bankruptcies coming out of China which is going to surprise a lot of people including me and I know it's coming yes the Chinese have built up a lot of debt fast they don't know how to handle debt they don't have experience in depth so yeah but whether it starts in China I don't know it usually starts in someplace where people are not looking you know you remember before it started in Iceland neela said what we didn't know Iceland could go broke and then Ireland went broke and then Bear Stearns went broke and then Lehman Brothers went broke and everybody so there's a problem so it usually starts someplace we're not watching and snowballs hmm that's true but Jim can we safely say that for the time being you know for next maybe a couple of years the best performance of the US and I mean obviously the global markets is behind us can we safely assume that that we have seen the best of the bull run now and it's behind us well the market was up for nine years so yeah yeah that's the best is behind us that does not mean that cannot be a very nice leg up here at the end you remember in 1999 I don't know if you remember but in 1999 the Nasdaq tripled and it's like something like eight months nine months at the very end yeah Markovic going up since 1982 have been up for 17 years few Corrections along the way but then in 1999 it had this wild explosion and that was the end so why it might happen again I don't know I'm not smart enough to know but would you want to maybe Park some of your money in a safe heaven let's say a gold or something of that sort I'm not buying gold I own gold and have for a long time I have a body serious gold in eight or nine eight years but if and when go goes down a lot my plan is to buy a lot of gold because before this is over gold is gonna turn into a bubble it sell it's gonna get buried over value when turmoil comes people are gonna be desperate for someplace gold will turn into a bubble a very overpriced acid at that time so I plan to buy a lot more but not for a while one last question Jim and I asked you this yesterday as well but I didn't know that overnight Bitcoin will crash the way it did and I think it's gonna crash more is that correct I answered today it's the same as yesterday I don't own any Bitcoin I'm not gonna buy any Bitcoin a lot of those things are gonna disappear just like has happened in every other new asset and every other bubble I don't know who I would I do know that money's gonna be on the computer in the future and on the internet in the future I suspect there will not be Bitcoin in any of the others I'm not buying them absolutely all right Jim thank you so much for joining us pleasure having gone this way as always and thanks you
Comments 0