저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
인플레이션은 2021년에 갑자기 생긴 문제가 아니라 10년 넘게 누적된 문제이며, 중앙은행의 2% 목표와 양적완화가 그 원인이다. 중앙은행은 원래 인플레이션 상한으로 2%를 두었으나 이후 2%를 목표로 바꿨고, 이는 부채 부담을 낮추고 정부 재정을 지탱하기 위한 위장된 정책이라고 주장한다. 2009년 이후 양적완화는 사실상 정부 부채의 화폐화이며, 통화정책 효과는 시차를 두고 나타나 현재의 인플레이션은 2009~2010년 정책의 결과라고 한다. 초기 통화 유입은 주식·채권·부동산 가격을 먼저 올려 자산가에게 유리했고, 그래서 대중과 정치권이 문제로 인식하지 않았다고 설명한다. 미국 공식 CPI는 실제 체감 물가보다 낮게 측정된다고 주장한다. 예로 본인의 주택보험료가 전년 대비 38% 올랐다는 점을 들고, 주택가격 약 40%, 임대료 약 20% 상승에 비해 OER(약 6%)은 인위적인 수치라고 지적한다. 공식 인플레이션률이 8~10%인 상황에서 실제 물가상승률은 그보다 훨씬 높을 가능성이 있다고 본다. 인플레이션 해결책은 정치적으로 수용되기 어려우며, 중앙은행의 2% 복귀 약속은 현실화되지 않고 결국 20%대 인플레이션을 보게 될 것이라고 전망한다. 영국은행이 금융위기 우려로 긴축을 접고 다시 양적완화로 돌아선 것을 중앙은행 항복의 첫 사례로 든다. 진정한 해법은 금리 인상과 정부지출 축소인데, 두 가지 모두 정치적으로 어려워 인플레이션은 더 악화될 것이라는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
history is is bearing me out here so I think the mainstream is going to have to bend and realize that they've been radical the whole time and what I've been saying has just been okay that you're setting my timer just to make sure anyway welcome everybody to this event and I want to talk today about the word that's on everybody's lips these days and on everybody's mind and that is inflation everybody is talking about inflation but I've been talking about inflation for over a decade now inflation didn't just suddenly creep up out of Left Field in 2021.
inflation has been the problem the entire time except that Central bankers and governments relied on inflation as the solution to their problem in fact for the last decade the one thing Central Bankers seem to agree on whether it was in Japan or in Europe or here in the United States they agreed that the problem with inflation was that there wasn't enough of it we just didn't have enough inflation prices were Rising too slowly and that was a problem that the central banks were determined to solve they were going to do whatever it took to increase the inflation rate up to two percent per year because two percent was what they claimed was the Holy Grail of inflation that inflation must be two percent prices must go up by two percent every year and if they don't well this is a huge problem and the central banks need to solve this problem with radical monetary policies even if it meant negative interest rates they would do that in order to make sure that the cost of living went up by two percent per year now to average people you know this would sound absurd why does the cost of living have to go up by two percent a year and if it only goes up by one percent a year what's why is that a problem why does it need to go up faster than that most people would rather the cost of living go down if food got cheaper people would like that if their rent went down everybody would love that if your landlord said hey we've decided to cut your rent this year nobody would object to that what if you know you go to the gas station and the prices are lower good news what if College tuitions went down what if medical bills instead of going up what if they went down right everybody would love that everybody likes it when the things that they want to buy the things that they need to buy become more affordable so why was it a problem for the central banks that the stuff we needed to buy wasn't going up in price fast enough and it needed to rise faster and first of all where did they get this two percent figure why is two percent so great why not one and a half percent what's wrong with that or two and a half percent I mean why is two and a half percent too high and one and a half percent too low why is two percent just right and the answer is it's not two percent is not better than one percent it's worse one percent is better and negative one percent is better than positive one percent when it comes to prices but the way this two percent Target came about was years ago many central banks began implementing two percent inflation as a ceiling what the central Bankers were telling everybody was that we're going to keep inflation below two percent if it gets up to two percent we're going to take action because two percent is our ceiling we don't want it to get above two percent a year so as long as it's below two percent everything is okay gets the two percent or higher we're going to spring into action to make sure it comes back down well somehow along the way that two percent ceiling became a Target where central banks said we need to get up to two percent that was never their mandate no Central Bank had a mandate of making sure inflation was two percent it was just making sure inflation was below two percent that didn't that didn't mean that if it was one percent I had to try to get it up they would just say oh it's one percent that's great it's below two percent we succeeded but they completely changed why did they do that it was all a pretense the central Bankers were faced with some serious economic problems that they didn't want politicians to have to deal with countries had run up a lot of debt and the governments really didn't have the ability to pay all this debt and so what central banks did was lower interest rates to make that debt affordable by lowering the interest payments on that debt and that allowed governments all over Europe governments in the United States to continue to pile on debt without having to make any difficult political choices of raising taxes or cutting spending but also because central banks kept interest rates so low it wasn't just government debtors that were able to go deeper into debt it was the private sector you know corporations individuals everybody loaded up with debt and the more debt everybody took on the more the Federal Reserve and other central banks felt compelled to keep interest rates artificially low because allowing interest rates to rise would have caused a financial crisis a lot of people would have defaulted on their deaths including governments and so the central banks kept interest rates low and kept printing money now they called it quantitative easing but quantitative easing is basically a euphemism for inflation that's what it is when the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing for the first time in 2009 what it really decided to do was monetize government debt and create inflation that's what quantitative easing was all about it was about inflation and in fact the central banks Justified quantitative easing and negative zero percent interest rates because they said these policies were necessary to raise the inflation rate inflation was too low so central banks recognize that these policies were in fact inflationary because they were designed to cure the problem of too low inflation but that problem didn't exist all they did was pour gasoline on an inflation fire now inflation didn't really rear its ugly head in a way that became a big problem until last year and that's because these monetary policies operate with a lag and what surprised me was the length of that lag the inflation that we're experiencing now in 2022 really started in 2009 2010 we've we haven't even caught up to the inflation we created in 2020 uh that's coming but there's all this inflation in the pipeline now another reason that that inflation did not become as big a problem is because the way the money entered the economy in many cases was through the banking system through the financial markets so the prices that were impacted the most by inflation were stock prices bond prices real estate prices and so people didn't mind when inflation was making them richer in fact people like that politicians like that everybody likes a bull market so when inflation is first entering the economy and the first impact it has is on asset prices nobody's worried about it and so the central bankers kept creating it the other factor that was important was the fraudulent way that governments measure inflation particularly here in the United States some more familiar with rcpi but I think other cpis in other countries are similarly flawed by Design but the increase in consumer prices the way it's officially measured is not nearly as great as what is actually experienced by consumers when they're buying goods and services so if you have an official measure of inflation that says prices are going up by one and a half percent a year it's possible they're going up by four or five percent a year in reality and so when the government says hey we don't have enough inflation we got to get that one and a half percent inflation up to two percent what they're actually doing is getting that five or six percent inflation rate up to 10 percent now where we are today you've got Nations all around the world reporting official inflation rates at eight percent nine percent ten percent or more which means The Unofficial actual rate of inflation is probably somewhere between 50 and 20 percent so inflation is a enormous problem all over the United States look I just got the other day my uh uh new uh premium from my homeowners insurance policy for my house I have in Connecticut and it was a 38 increase over the prior year I mean that's that dwarfs what the government says inflation is and the reason my insurance premiums went up so much is because they said the cost of replacing the house if it burns down has gone up so much because of the increase in raw materials and labor costs it's going to cost 38 more to rebuild my house than it would have cost to rebuild the same house a year ago that's what's going on in reality and I've experienced in my personal life and so if so many other people that email me price increases that dwarf what the government claims is the increase in fact speaking of housing in the United States when we measure consumer prices we don't use rents we don't use home prices home prices are up something like 40 percent since uh the beginning of covet 30 40 percent rents are up maybe 20 percent but according to the government they use something like owner's equivalent rent and that's only up six percent well what is owner's equivalent of rent doesn't matter because nobody actually pays it it's a made-up number that the government puts into the CPI so that it can pretend that shelter which is a third of the CPI is rising at a much slower rate than it actually is so now inflation is a huge problem see inflation was the government's solution to the problem until inflation has now become the problem so what is the solution to the inflation problem there is none at least none that is politically acceptable and so inflation is going to get much worse forget about what these Central bankers and politicians are saying about their commitment to fight inflation how they're Resolute and how they're determined no matter what to bring the inflation rate back down to two percent that's never going to happen we're going to see 20 percent inflation before we see two percent inflation and this pre-ten war against inflation is going to come to an end soon and the central banks are going to surrender and inflation is going to win look we've already seen the First Central Bank capitulate and wave the right white flag and that was the bank of England the bank of England a week or two ago was every bit as committed to fighting inflation as the Fed until the inflation fight threatened a financial crisis and then they cowered out turned around and they're back to quantitative easing they went from quantitative tightening to open-ended quantitative easing in fact the bank of England said we're going to print as many pounds as we have to we're going to keep on buying guilts we're not going to let interest rates go up they have to let interest rates go up if you want to fight inflation you got to let interest rates go up but the other thing you have to do to fight inflation is to make government spending go down because government spending is the source of that inflation
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