저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이 영상은 특정 자산의 가격 예측이 아니라 원칙 기반 의사결정, 명상, 고통을 통한 성장에 관한 일반론이다. 영상의 핵심 주장은 자신만의 원칙을 글로 적고 검증하면 의사결정이 체계화된다는 것이다. 투자 원칙에서 시작해 회사 운영, 개인 삶으로 확장했다. 성격 유형 검사(Shaper 유형)에 대해 말하며, 엘론 머스크, 빌 게이츠, 리드 헤이스팅스, 무함마드 유누스 등 성공한 사람들을 검사한 결과 0.8%가 같은 유형이었다고 주장한다. 자신은 큰 그림과 새로운 아이디어를 좋아하지만 세부사항에 약해 꼼꼼한 사람들이 필요하다고 설명한다. 실패와 고통에 관한 교훈으로, 고통과 성찰이 합쳐져 진보를 만든다고 말한다. 파산 직전의 경험을 정글 비유로 설명하며 위험을 감수하는 것의 가치를 강조한다. 명상을 통해 감정과 논리를 연결하고 현실을 있는 그대로 받아들이는 능력을 키웠다고 한다. 현실을 인정하고 통제 가능한 것에 집중하라는 메시지다. 영상 속에 특정 종목, 지수, 금리, 환율, 코인에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다. 과거 시장 경험과 일반적 투자 원칙에 대한 언급만 있다. 출연자 전망: 해당 영상에서 향후 자산 가격에 대한 구체적 전망은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
I think people only learn when they're wrestling themselves with the question so you know I wrote three books on on different types of principles and one of the things that really changed my life there were a couple of things that changed my life in a big way one of those was meditation that gave me the Equanimity the calmness the ability to connect my conscious uh logical mind with my subliminal emotional mind but also at an early age when I would make decisions I would write down my criteria for making decisions because everything's another one of those these things happen over and over again and I would write down those principles and that got me to think differently and in so many ways changed my life the books that I wrote were not books that I wrote as much as principles that I had that I just put together and passed along and from doing that a number of people found them impactful and it's really most important that each individual has their own principles for dealing with their own circumstances so that's what I want to give people that I found that I needed to write down my criteria and test them so I started with in the markets because I I you know it's tough to rest a law in your head with everything and so I found that I needed to do that and I could test the criteria and I found that transformative because when I contest them I know how they would have worked I test the logic when I tested them I learned in ways that I wouldn't have learned and then I could systemize the decision making I could write them into equations I could have the computer help me I could be understood by people I was with we could debate the criteria rather than just screaming our conclusions at each other and that then led me to do the same thing in when I'm managing the company okay I'm having company the people it grows you know from 9 to 1500 people and you know how do we communicate how we do it how do you have an idea of meritocracy how do you do that so writing down my criteria and the principles and then saying should we debate that is that the right way and then I began to realize that every dimension in my life was like that if I have a child if I have everything I'm not the first to do it and it's been going on and on so to think I the way I look at it is everything is another one of those like a species what one of those or what species is it and how does it work and how do I handle that species like a doctor having many cases so a series of things first the markets then running the business and carrying it forward to life that reflection and so that's what I want to pass along to people you know the power the enormous power that when you're thinking just to write them down and I think like I'm happy that my grandchildren will be able to get my advice and other people can get my advice and think for themselves and so when you think there are so many successful people in the world well whatever they're successful at they must have been successful because of how they made decisions so I'm encouraging um right now I'm going to build an app that is going to take people's principles the best people most successful in all different areas and I'm going to have them write down their principles for dealing with those things and it could be for anything dealing with a medical condition it could be dealing for with anything and then you could just call it up and you could say listen I'm dealing with this subject and you could vote up what the best principles are and you could also go to you know what are this person's principles Bill Gates's principles or whoever you want to have their principles and you see so that it's easy for people to think about principles and in a principled way so that's the Continuum you know I just found out that it works I've created this journal and it's a guided journal to self-discovery as you know the they're the various stages in it that are helpful so it started you know like what is my rule for the markets and you're doing one by one and then it's evolved into this yes your English accent uh just want to make it clear that that word is paths in in Myanmar again yeah so but but that's right find your nature matching your nature with the paths that suit your nature that's the discovery problem born with nature and certain nature and then our environments give us a certain preferences a certain personality things that we want and I've seen that through running my company and that's also why I created this principles you test that is available to everybody free so it's like a half hour a test you answer questions and everybody virtually said ah that describes me and it also shows if you put another person in it it describes what your relationship with that person is likely to be like based on what you're like what your preferences are so we have these preferences uh I can you know enumerate them somebody's a big picture Adventurer kind of thinking some person is more detailed and not adventurous and all of these things so to know your nature and then you want to match it up with the path so that you say Ah that's going to be you know a great path for me and that's that's the exercise so the first exercise is that exercise uh not only take the test that that gives you and it will it will describe you almost everybody who's taking the test says wow that's described me in detail and then it takes you through some other questions to help to make that Discovery and then you move on with the path so I'm in personality test I'm what's called a shaper which is um and then there's other parts something in bedroom and so on but I'm a shaper is somebody who likes to visualize something and build it out and I'm very excited about new ideas and adventure and all of that kind of thing so what I find is that I need people who are strong where I'm weak and I'm weak in paying attention to a lot of details I mean I I will go to the detail but I need tremendous amount of Leverage or of different kinds of people some people are meticulous and reliable and they'll help keep me out of trouble or you know that kind of thing so I guess that's kind of it in a nutshell I I wanted to find out when I started to transition think about the transition of the control of Bridgewater I wanted to find out uh what were the elements that were in common among Shapers such as Elon Musk Bill Gates Reed Hastings who didn't on Netflix um Mohammed yunus who received the Nobel Prize for inventing so many different I gave them uh the personality test and 0.8 percent of them they were all the same and they accounted for 0.8 percent of the population so it's that element you know you can see that preference and so for me it was that I have this personality and I need people who are strong and and that means like meticulous patient reliable of course in the people's nature there are values abilities and skills and they're different things so you have to know what they are about now so that exercise lists all of those and and some more I think and then what you're supposed to do is you pick the three most important and then you pick the three least important and that helps you to make that Focus for me it's meaningful work and meaningful relationships and I'm a shaper meaning I like to visualize things and build them out so those are uh I like Adventure I like ambiguity I like differences I like going to far away on that unusual places with unfarland musical places I've I've always had those preferences that's always been in me and then I um by my nature I just happen to find a way to do that oh that's it was so good it was such a painful experience I think and and then I really learned pain plus reflection equals progress that's one of the principles I learned that every time I have an encounter that it's like a puzzle that if I can solve the puzzle you know what should I do differently or wow should I deal with it I would get a gem and the gem would be a new principle and a learning that would improve my life and so in that particular case I learned to fear and deal well with the possibility of being wrong I it gave me a humility I needed to balance with my audacity in other words it made me think how do I know I'm right and then through that process to try to find out of curiosity the smartest people I could who disagreed with me and to study their reasoning and it made me learn really how to diversify my bets by diversifying my bets I could radically reduce my risk without reducing my returns and it let me also reflect on life like I was at a juncture I was broke and I you know it was do I go get a a job do I put on a jacket and tie and take the you know the railroad into the City and work at Wall Street or something or do I not and it was like I was sitting on one side of a jungle and I could I could have the Safe Life by sitting on the one side of the Jungle and not going into the jungle but I knew that if I wanted to have a great life I had to cross this Jungle of all these threats in the jungle and survive and then I sort of said okay what am I going to do am I going to live this this Safe Life or and then it won't be as terrific or am I going to go into the jungle and how would I go into the jungle and then I realized I learned okay let me go into the jungle with people who would be on the mission with me and could see things I couldn't see and we would protect each other as we went into this jungle and I found out from that experience that I didn't want to get to the other side of the Jungle to the success and sit on the success because I found being in the jungle with these people or being on the mission with those people even through the ups and downs and the threats was rewarding that all came from reflections of that terrible mistake that terrible mistake we learn a lot from pain you know life I think is it's almost a trick that what happens is the second order consequences are so often the opposite of the first order consequences in other words the things that are really good for us don't feel good and the things that are bad for us feel good you know okay the tasty stuff is the stuff that is not probably good for you the exercise that might be painful is the thing that you don't want to do and you want to do the Plainfield quite often pain or that is the opposite it's a trick can you do the things that are really good for you and so those kinds of Reflections I think were very powerful have an experience really brought a lot of those and from those lessons that I learned that was the bottom in other words from that point well there have been some uppes and downs it was almost totally up all almost all the way of course twists and turns and bumps and personal things of course terrible personal things that have happened I lost his son I you know all of those things but to reflect on reality okay what does it teach you about reality and and whatever and how do you approach that all of those Reflections I've learned a lot from those Reflections and so it's that you know at that instance but you know many since it tells you about reality like I think a lot of people get upset if reality is not what they want it to be that's so stupid I mean reality is reality so how does it work and how do you interact with it to get what you want rather than sit there in pain you know and okay so look and you can get past it the pain when you approach it this way isn't nearly as painful so what is it the pain the most of the pain goes away pretty quickly or diminishes very quickly the worst things you know they can ache or something but you know they'll probably and so what do you do because that it's like the Serenity Prayer God give me the serenity to accept that which I can't control and give me the power to control that which I can and wisdom to tell the difference or said differently do the best you can and then accept life because that's the way life is and so anyway the reflections like that have had such an impact and I want to help people have that that's why I did the journal it's also I think your ability to see it as a game to have this kind of thirty thousand feet view of yourself to watch yourself playing this game and to uh I remember a great investor in Canada Francis chew once telling me that he would think of himself in the third person it's investing it's such an interesting trick right yes yes it what it is is like going above yourself and looking down at yourself in circumstances with others with that objectivity so that you can navigate yourself and others like who is the best team I could put together it isn't always me as being the star that's not going to get you where you want it's it's not around me it's around okay you know who was where this best idea come from you know so and that's what it's like going above it how does the world work how does it operate I'm looking down at me in that world and others in the world and what are the interactions like do you think you would just why this way that you were slightly unemotional and objective or was this actually just a way you trained yourself to think no well first of all I want to be clear I'm very emotional I think the most important things in life are things like love you know the emotions the inspiration excitement okay what is it about I mean I think that those are important what I do but I'll answer your question what but what I do is when I I just navigate it and no I think that it was probably brought about by some to some extent I was born with a um with pluses and minuses my minuses I would say is I have a very poor rope memory if you ask me about like to remember anything that has no reason for being what it is names phone numbers things like that and then that has led me to probably I have a very good conceptual uh memory I could describe almost every year of what the markets did and what the economy did and so on for it because I experienced it and has the reason for being that way so I think to some extent by we weakness helped me develop a strength of trying to figure things out I think that then being in the markets since I was 12 is a dealing with reality uh you know it's just you know what are you going to do okay no I didn't like that I'm blaming the stock market for going down there's nobody to blame or whatever it is so you know I think the interactions I started at 12 in the markets the interactions and then the feedback I think by the way life is more like a video game than it is like School in other words you're you're going out there you encounter these things you learn and so on rather than you sit there and remember what you're taught so I had I I had those experiences and then I think I it's because I also learned to meditate at a fairly early age I think I was you know I don't know about 18 or 90 something like 18 or 19 and I learned to meditate and that had that so I think I've encountered my realities from an early age I and I learned really it's up to me to deal with reality there's no excuses and then the meditation I think has helped me go above it and then the writing down these principles is out
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