저자: Jurnalisme Investigasi · 외국인
다듬은 글
the way we State the unemployment rate we're always very proud then we have more people not working than Europe does they seem to have found a new willingness to resign if the job is crummy and they're not paid enough and they and they have been treated diabolically badly since that 1975. if you look at the increase for an hour worked it's about 10 or 15 percent adjusted for inflation in 45 years and in France it's up 150 percent and if you read business week as I like to say it would have appeared over that 45 years that we had done nothing but kick French bottoms because of eurosclerosis French incompetence bureaucrats etc etc they take too much time off they have long holidays but when they work they're very productive and they get paid a ton more money than they used to and we do not even the lowly Brits around 60 the Japanese are up over 100.
how is it that our average hour worked in manufacturing has done so that bubbles are characterized typically at the end of a long bull market by a period where they accelerate and they start to rise at two or three times the average speed of the bull market which they did last year of course and the Russell 2000 actually went up an amazing 50 in three months ending in early February this year which is Compares very favorably to the 50 rally in 99 of the Super Tank bubble and the NASDAQ went up 50 in six months so this was bigger and better and of course they're always extremely overpriced by average historical standards and this one there are a few people who would still argue that 2000 was higher but most of the data suggests that this is the new American record or highest priced stocks in history and then there's the most important thing of all which is crazy behavior the kind of meme stock High participation by individuals which has kind of tripled in 18 months to an abnormally high level enormous trading volume in penny stocks enormous trading volume in options and huge margin levels Peak Peak borrowing of all kinds and the news is on the front page the news is not on the financial page the market big Market events are on the front page this is all characteristic of the handful of great bubbles that we've had which in 1929 in America maybe in 1972 certainly 2000 and in the housing market certainly the 2007-8 in Japan 1989 was the biggest and the best of all the major markets and even bigger and better in their real estate market so we've chunked off all the Box because now the question is how high is high very hard to tell always where the peak will be but what you do know is that how high the peak is has no bearing at all on what the fair value is the letters assume that the fair value on the s p is let us say 2400.
whether it stops at 4 300 or 5300 doesn't change that what it does change is the amount of pain that you get to go back to fair value and below the case in point would be Japan Japan had never sold over 25 times earnings in 1987 88 1989 until it went through 25 and went all the way up we were told at the time to 65 times in and the price you paid for that is that they're still not back to the same price they were in 1989 and their real estate market which was even a bigger bubble than the stock market in fact I believe the biggest trouble in history bigger than the south sea bubble and the Tulips the land under the Emperor's Palace really was worth the entire State of California and the price they paid was that their land is still not back to 1989 levels so 32 years later they're still there and that's how you get a major drag on the economy because when you mark down housing and lab it's an even bigger and more dangerous business than the stock market and if you do it at the same time as the stock market then you have an enormous loss of perceived bow and that is a big big drag on the economy which the Japanese have had to absorb and it took them perhaps 20 years to do that so you profoundly do not wish for a super high level to your bubble and you profoundly do not wish for more than one asset class to be bubbling at the same time and Japan made that terrible mistake and paid a very high price to have real estate and stocks at the same time we paid somewhat the same price in 2007 because we had the first really interesting housing bubble in American history we had never had one before and it was the kind that was so extra cream it would only occur every hundred years or so and we worked out that if it went back down to Trend it would cost seven trillion dollars and it did go back perfectly it was a very well behaved bubble it went smoothly back at the same speed that it had gone up three years up three years down and then for good measure as is usually the case it went below the old trend line value and added another couple of trillion dollars of Pain by the housing market going even lower and that housing market was so big and profound and so accompanied by financial instruments of the notorious subprime variety that it took the stock market down with it and caused obviously a financial crisis and the stock market threw in another seven trillion dollars of loss of value so you had a double whammy there which would guarantee a tougher recession from the negative income effect of which we had 2000 is a very interesting contrast because 2000 was a much higher Equity bubble than 2008 but the real estate market was cheap actually very cheap the REITs were selling cheaper than the value of their properties and the properties themselves were cheaper than the cost of building them and the yield on the Reit portfolio at the very top of the market was 9.1 percent secondly Bonds were cheap Bonds were incredibly cheap and the new inflation-protected Bond called a tip had just been introduced and it yielded 4.3 percent just imagine that 4.3 percent guaranteed protected against inflation guaranteed good money by the government and the regular bond market was very cheap so Bonds were cheap real estate was very cheap and only the stock market was expensive let me say that we typically identified a bubble Zone often it went on quite a lot longer but it always fell below the point where we had suggested it was entering bubble territory so once it broke through the peak the 1929 peak of 21 times earnings we started to be bearish in 1997 but only a little bearish and then as the peas Rose and Rose from 21 times to eventually 35.
we became more and more bearish until we were screaming bearish and still the market went up for another year so we were pretty early in the housing bubble we did much much better we basically walked people through the last year or 18 months pointing out how dangerous the subprime and so on and the housing market and how much damage it would do we pretty well got that one right and of course we got extremely lucky on reinvesting when terrified which was posted the day the market hit the low in March about nine and here we are I thought we entered bubble territory about last June about a year ago and I've made it quite clear what I consider a definition of success and that is only that sooner or later you will have made money to have sidestepped the bubble phase so I am suggesting that the last 20 or 30 percent of the market will be retraced with interest and I would expect that the fair value of this Market would require the market to approximately half and I would be surprised if it did much less than that and if it goes up another 20 it will have to get rid of that as well as a bonus you can very seldom identify the pin that pops it 1929 no one's agreed yet what the pin was and they say about 1929 that quote selling came in from the country which means that the initial selling pressure was from the Midwest not from Boston and Philadelphia and New York what was going on was probably that the economy which had been unbelievably strong was turning down but because of the lags in the data the city's Liquors didn't know it but the guys out in Chicago who actually had businesses and farms and cattle and so on they knew that things had turned out and they decided sitting around the club at lunch that they better take a few profits and so selling came in from the country and the bubbles tend to Peak at Absolute optimism when the economy looks perfect and you're extrapolating it forever and that's the definition of a bubble and they have to be facilitated by friendly monetary conditions and when you've had a wonderful economy and friendly monetary conditions you've pretty well always had a bubble they're not that common and here we are again and we feel the economy looks wonderful if we extrapolate it forever it means it's worth a huge price of course it never does last forever but if it did it would be worth a huge price and that the mechanics that is going on and then you can say what might raffle the cage well I think unexpected covet problems on a global basis and in the U.S I rattled the cage unexpected inflation that doesn't go away in a hurry and then starts to run into longer term inflationary pressures which we could discuss that might rattle the cage and the biggest cage Rattler of all is everything else you haven't thought about that could go wrong and my guess is that's probably the cause in the end of most of bubbles deflating the mechanics of a bubble is you have maximum borrowing maximum enthusiasm and then the following day you're still enthusiastic but not quite as enthusiastic as yesterday a week later you're not quite as enthusiastic as last week and last month and gradually the enthusiasm level drops off a bit you have no more money to borrow your fully borrowed and the buying pressure gradually slows down and that's it and there is a very interesting warning signal that has only happened a few times and that is in a bull market the risky stocks go up a lot more than the Blue Chip it's a major surprise um you could flip that around and say it was a major surprise people chose to have big families very expensive they take all your time and energy they take all your money she will holidays to um Borneo I mean and and as the cost of education has gone through the roof in real terms adjusted for inflation the cost of Education was just risen remorselessly um it now costs if you have three or four children you you need a million dollars of after tax money to get them through at colleges and and Etc and um you could say it was amazing we had so many children for so long it's easy to sympathize with with uh taking the easy way of having one or two children or no children and particularly if you're a woman just getting on with your life and not having to drag a man and two children around so I I have no real understanding of why it came on so quickly in the last 40 years there is a lot of short-term starts here with covid but it's as if covet borders the time to reflect on what we were getting from our job and a lot of crummy jobs didn't seem worth the effort and so people were quicker to resign and we still haven't reached the utilization rate I'm sorry what is it called the percentage of people working is way down from 2000.
in 2000 we had about as high a participation rate as anyone on the planet and since then has come down the Italians and so on have have gone out and we have one of the lower participation routes which is really the definition of unemployment how many people do you have what fraction are working and and the rest are in a sense unemployed and and we do not equally EU the way we State the unemployment rate we're always very proud that we have more people not working than Europe does they seem to have found a new willingness to resign if the job is crummy and they're not paid enough and they and they have been treated diabolically badly since that 1975.
if you look at their increase for an hour worked it's up 10 or 15 adjusted for inflation in 45 years and in France it's up 150 percent and if you read business week as I like to say it would have appeared over that 45 years that we had done nothing but kick French bottoms because of neurosclerosis French incompetence bureaucrats etc etc they take too much time off they have long holidays but when they work they're very productive and they get paid a ton more money than they used to and we do not even the lonely Brits are up 60 the Japanese are up over 100.
how is it that our average hour worked in manufacturing has done so badly and it's because we have had decent aggregate productivity for all of those games have flown to the top 10 a lot of it to the top one percent Etc and a lot of that top point one and I in a way I speak it's at point one percent um and it's had its advantages it's funded a Grantham foundation and that in itself I I warmly recommend um to Old fogies that you have a sense of purpose and a green agenda is a terrific sense of purpose and as I have to explain incredibly entertaining and stimulating as well and and and the very best corner of the American capitalist system which is otherwise looking a little as I say fat and happy I mean they're not doing the same entrepreneurial stuff that they did in the 60s in the 60s everybody was at the market share always opening a new Factory which is a portfolio manager was very irritating just as things got tied they would all all five companies and the paper business would all open new Mills at the same time and ruin the profits now they don't now they sit on the expansion they expand very reluctantly um and they concentrate on profits they keep the staff lean and mean it's brilliant it's for the management who have their stock options and and the buyback program but it's bad for growth and so the profit margins and the last and and Goldilocks era profit margins have been 30 40 about the previous hundred years they're brilliant for the management and Brilliant for stockholders and fairly rotten for the economy where the growth has steadily slowed down
Comments 0