NVDA's DeepSeek Selling: Warning or Buying Opportunity?

요약 보기

딥시크 모델 충격과 관세 뉴스가 겹치며 엔비디아가 주간 큰 폭 하락했다. 공급 규제·중국 경쟁 우려가 부각됐고, 애널리스트 매수 의견은 유지되며 실적 발표 전까지 방향성은 불확실하다는 진단이다. 진행자는 엔비디아 콜 수직 스프레드 전략을 소개했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. it's now time for fomo so unfortunately we're looking at one of the most substantial pullbacks of the week which is NVIDIA and definitely one that is felt by the overall markets so joining us now to talk more about some of the pressures right now Weighing on the stock as day in King Hall senior markets correspondent for the network so Diane I did just see that that densen Wong is set to meet with Trump at the white house this afternoon amid all of the other right now I'd say definite headlines that are spinning so walk us through the latest and greatest with Nvidia because it does still feel like we are reeling from the deep seek hangover I just have to say that word a few thousand more times to close out this week yeah I mean that's not the only thing that's happening it's clearly a lot of headline risk that is hitting Nvidia this week it started Monday with deep seek and the threat that that poses but I know Alex just talked about kind of the broad Market reaction to this breaking news that we saw from reuter about the looming tariffs and you saw Nvidia take a leg down after that the stock had been pushing a little bit High higher marginally higher it still would have been lower for the week but you had seen some investors you know trying to step back in and by the dip that we saw this week a major hit that it took so here's obviously as we knew how it happened we had this news about deep seek and that there may potentially have been a competitive threat to Nvidia with this deep seek model that they had that is the top downloaded app in the app store that was running faster allegedly than nvidia's chip there was so the concern about then would it eat into competition it was reportedly cheaper we still don't know if that 5.6 million was actually accurate I know we're looking into that and we know that government officials are also looking into how deep sea got these chips were they did they circumvent the process especially when you think about export controls to get these there's reporting I saw this from Bloomberg that they may have gone through Singapore to get these chips to be able to do this model that could potentially be a threat to Nvidia uh so that is what we've seen that hit the stock this week so again it's been a lot of headline risks that's hit it you know at the beginning of the week it was uh deep seek and then midweek there was also I think the questions that came into play is the uh earnings from both meta and Microsoft which was a mixed bag meta was good Microsoft there was some conservative uh commentary in there and so what Nvidia needs is these uh mag 7 to continue to spend and to keep up their Capital allocation towards Nvidia now envidia does have a big moat and it has long leadership it is the front runner in this AI space so it has that to its Advantage but it brings up questions and there had already been questions about valuations within big Tech anyway uh so it it's clear that the market took this as an opportunity to you know sell out of this right now and potentially do a reset when when it comes to Nvidia guys yeah and so when you have that in mind then Diane it does seem if you're an investor and you were looking at a company like Nvidia maybe it's been your portfolio big winning position this is kind of the reason that many have been looking for to deleverage those positions you think that's unfolding right now I do think that's part of it because it's an opportunity where you say okay if there is a competitive threat coming you know I've already made enough on this that you could certainly see that there's the case uh for that but again and you are foregoing the potential for future gains so there are there is the question about you know is this a real competitive threat from China and as Jenny mentioned as well uh that Jensen Wong was is has been scheduled to meet with President Trump today now according to the reports that I've seen from both Bloomberg and Reuters this was a pre-scheduled meeting but you can bet that deep seek will be on the conversation table today and then there will likely be a conversation about uh export controls especially when it uh comes to its chips to China so you can bet that will be on the table for conversation today and Alex the other thing to keep in mind especially how investors look at this what I didn't notice was a any kind of major reset from the analyst Community I saw reiterating of buy ratings and we see the the analyst Community is largely in the buy camp we still don't have any sell ratings on Nvidia so that in itself is is also frankly amazing and and I know we have earnings not I believe till the end of February so this is always a late late reporter in our our cycle but as far as now like some of these these expectations moving forward I mean I do feel like when it came to Nvidia I know we had some specific news but like you said this week was a lot of volatility with a lot of headline risk and I I don't feel like it necessarily pertained specifically to Nvidia but Nvidia was the one that really took took on the brunt of the forest it feels like yeah heavy is the head that wears the crown and Nvidia has been the king in this space so it is being treated as such that you know we will come right for the leader in other words the investors are saying you know okay uh we're coming for NVIDIA and obviously broadcom was involved in that selloff as well and it's the question of is this treated you know kind of a shortterm you know reaction or do you bank on the longterm and the you know kind of proven case that Nvidia has been especially they they have proven performance so it's a matter of framing I think now in terms of Nvidia is this was this a warning sign or is this a buying opportunity we really won't know until we get their next earnings that is also so true and we speculate just like the way we speculate on the fat and we get all the answers and we're still not happy so I I do feel like this is going to be many many more months of us talking about deep seek and the ways in which which we expected to impact Nvidia but again we'll know when we finally get those financial results but appreciate the insight as always Dan King Hall senior markets correspondent for the network and so now when we look at trading this name Alex we are down about 610 of a percent here so we've been in a pretty substantial decline really since I mean around basically the start of our show and the inid shares well this name has been volatile today I mean we we almost are back to actually where we opened we Rose to 12 785 then fell to right now 124 so it's been a busy day for NVIDIA no doubt about it and so say you think this stock can make a run at its all-time highs before earnings I got a strategy that risks a little chance to make a lot if that happens what we're looking at is buying a call vertical spread in Nvidia uh buying the 143 153 call vertical for a dollar debit uh means that you're going to be risking 100 with a chance to make 900 Break Even would be one 44 on that particular spread all of this expires the week prior to earnings has not contend with that so Jenny elongated z- risk profile but risk a little to make a lot but you're going to need a lot of help from the market for this one to work out you're going to need a lot of the narrative really to shift because right now it feels like we're piling on with these negative headlines and unfortunately a lot of it out of invidious control but that's the nature of of what happens when you're so exposed to some of these regions overseas and of course at that Del Liberty of your Administration so one of them will will be watching but it's definitely been felt by these markets that Nvidia has pulled back as substantially as it has on the week now down about 15% from its highs and down about I mean excuse me and now now down about um 19% from its highs and about 133% on a week to- dat basis we'll leave it there for NVIDIA though