저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 중국 수출 규제와 화웨이 경쟁, 트럼프 행정부 정책 불확실성으로 난항이 예상되며 젠슨 황의 입지가 복잡하다는 분석. 테슬라는 Q3 인도량 430k 전망(전년比 9% 감소 추정), 전년 대비 판매 감소, BYD 등 경쟁 심화, 시장 점유율 하락을 지적하며 단기 촉매 부재를 우려. 자율주행·옵티머스 등 장기 서사에 의존하는 구조이며, 자동차 사업이 여전히 매출의 대부분이라 규제·정책 불확실성이 큼.
다듬은 글
Why didn't Nvidia stock rise by 10% yesterday? Broadcom was, of course, but I believe it was partly due to the belief that when you think about it, Oracle is one that wasn't taken into consideration. After earnings, I believe a lot of that might be on Nvidia. just because it has to do with China. I believe you still see some sentiment.
They seem to have missed their I mean they actually missed the data center, don't they? Alternatively, they entered in a line or something and I was actually in the camp when they said that the stock would drop by 10 to 15% on that day. The fact that it didn't happen suggests in my opinion that there are people who wish to keep purchasing this stock.
Additionally, a lot of it is connected to the commerce with China because well, you saw the headline in the information today. All right. So, Alibaba and Buu are beginning to employ their own ships, but only out of necessity. These businesses are still on the CUDA network, but Huawei is present and attempting to compete.
When they can, they continue to purchase these chips. In actuality, they're still waiting in line for Nvidia chips. and everyone is essentially attempting to determine when they will have a better understanding of the target from a timing standpoint regarding the Trump administration the restrictions and eventually what the next call such as a Blackwell restricted chip will be after that the White House will likely say that it's a payforplay model at the moment that's pretty much it there is a problem though in that the White House imposed an export an export tariff but the Chinese suddenly said wait a minute these aren't even our second or third greatest technology and you guys are boasting about it.
As a result, they are telling their local and powerful people, hey, listen, Trump is having the influence that a country like China normally has over their companies. Do you understand? When you combine those two factors, you can end yourself in a state of impass that Jensen Hang would prefer to avoid.
He does not want that because in his opinion, he must be amicable with Trump on both sides. But he also needs to be amicable in Beijing. Considering how well Elon is in the same place, by the way, he's in a lot worse situation. I mean, his association with Trump has put him in a lot weaker position.
And I would also add that from a regulatory standpoint, you need a much simpler regulatory path around autonomous. Therefore, Trump is very necessary for that. Okay. So, before we get to Google, I would like to discuss stalling or rotation if you like. As a result, Microsoft is down roughly 8.5% since its earnings and is unable to overcome its own obstacles.
It's not trading you. No, the NASDAQ just closed at an all-time high. You know, yesterday or the other day, but Meta really made up the difference in its earnings. We're recording this Thursday afternoon and you're listening to it Friday morning. Thus, Meta is rather mired in the mud. Amazon is mired in a rut.
In actuality, Amazon never verified the NASDAQ highs. And as I look around, I see that Tesla received a bid today. It is increased by 5 a.5%. Again, rotation, you know, Q3 deliveries, you know, will be released on October 1st or 2nd. There is agreement on 430,000 that is anticipated to be 9%. Lower than the previous year.
335,000 deliveries were made in Q1 and 384,000 in Q2. You may observe a slight pull forward as a result of the tax credit disappearing. That 430 may therefore be 450 or whatever. Is that something? When you consider this business and this kind of second year in a row of units going down, you consider all the other things like pricing wars, China brand deterioration and so on.
In addition, competition is a problem. Yes, in China, but they're losing market share here. I mean, in the US, I believe it is 38%. And it has consistently been higher than 50%. Perhaps it's not as low as 38, but it's unquestionably below 50 or something. What would you do with such a stock? Is the stock off to the races if they post a number that appears to be 460 or anything similar?
Look, if you focus, and I know many people are like bearish on it, the story is far more about robo taxi Optimus and AI in my opinion. In fact, it's funny when I sit down with them since the majority of institutional clients are more pessimistic than optimistic. Or rather, I would say that institutional investors are more pessimistic than optimistic.
But that is likely changing a little as more people have the attitude that hey, maybe I just take a shot because it's been an underperformer. And I take a shot on the autonomous optimist moonshot. And if I'm right, everything else that delivers doesn't even matter. Those are not things you want to own.
For example, why would anyone choose to acquire Tesla's collection of deteriorating assets? I take it that's not the business model. I don't understand. Then what is the next catalyst though if the EV industry is struggling? Because the market is attempting to determine that. You might make the case that Optimus and the AI narrative would ultimately take off, but they are long-term wagers.
In the upcoming quarter or two, they will not appear. The market is forward-thinking but not indefinitely patient as you are aware. Where is the short-term story? Therefore, if there isn't any immediate increase in deliveries, pressure on margins, heightened competition, and a brand that is beginning to suffer, the key question is that, you see, Elon has a history of pulling rabbits out of hats.
Whenever people begin to question him, he always manages to come up with something fresh that rekindles the narrative. For him, it has been a recurring pattern. However, I believe that the distinction this time is that the EV market is now completely competitive. 2019 is no longer a year when the market would reward a simple statement like we're making electric cars.
Yes, and it's reflected all around the world. BYD is still gaining market share in China. Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW are all moving up their game in Europe. Even in the United States, Ford and General Motors are beginning to take significant action. When you consider all of that, you can see that you are competing not only on technology but also on scale, pricing, manufacturing efficiency, and regulatory incentives.
Even though it still exists, Tesla's lead is getting smaller. The problem with it is that the stock must continue to generate tech-like growth in margins if it is to trade like a tech business. However, the market will eventually repricing it in line with an automaker if it is acting more like one. That's precisely correct, and that's where, in my opinion, the gap between Tesla's perceived value and its true business fundamentals becomes apparent.
Some of the people I spoke with at the event yesterday, some of whom are longtime Tesla supporters, made an intriguing comment. Look, they added, we no longer even give a damn about the auto industry. We are interested in the story of autonomy and AI from a narrative standpoint. That makes sense. But you still have to go through the upcoming quarters.
Until those future opportunities truly come to pass, you still need to demonstrate that the business can withstand setbacks. That's right. And I believe that's where many investors are currently struggling to make sense of things. One side says, "Ignore the auto industry and focus on AI." While the other side says, "Yes, but the auto industry still provides funding for everything else." Yes, since those things cannot simply be separated, car sales continue to account for the majority of Tesla's revenue today.
They will be less able to invest as heavily in the other projects if that slows down. Therefore, it remains primarily an auto company with potentially fascinating future options until we see any observable revenue streams from software, FSD subscriptions, etc. Optimus. Yes, and the FSD article is intriguing as despite its progress, there is still a great deal of regulatory ambiguity.
You still need to get it approved and scaled even if you reach a technical readiness point. It will take time for that to occur. Another wild card is the fact that you brought up Trump earlier. Tesla's future might be significantly impacted by the outcome of the election and the way his government handles environmental regulations, EV subsidies, and China relations.
Of course, because it's possible that under Trump, the EV credits will be reduced or altered. Demand may be impacted by such, particularly for less expensive versions that depend on those incentives to remain competitive. On the other hand, there may be less overall regulatory pressure, which could be beneficial for innovation and production.
It's a bit of a mixed bag then. In any case, though, it creates uncertainty and the market detests ambiguity. That's right. And for that reason, I believe the upcoming quarters for Tesla will be quite imp.
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