저자: 미상 · 외국인
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인텔이 실적 발표에서 4분기 실적 하회 및 약한 가이던스를 제시해 주가가 급락했다. 매출총이익률은 약 39%로 과거 10년간 약 60%였던 수준에서 크게 낮아졌고, 하반기 회복 기대를 명확히 제시하지 못했다. 데이터센터와 PC 부문 모두 부진하며 AMD, TSMC 등에 점유율을 빼앗기고 있다. 최근 5년간 AMD 주가는 약 500% 상승한 반면 인텔은 약 34% 하락했다. 인텔은 2025년에야 기술 리더십 회복을 기대하며, 대규모 설비투자로 마진 압박이 이어질 전망이다.
다듬은 글
uh Intel posted shocking guidance on its earnings release last night that stunned investors who sent the stock plunging the legendary tech company also missed wall Street's expectations for the fourth quarter uh with its forecast pointing to more trouble ahead and I think if you roll back the tape to how we discussed Intel three months ago we will have used the same language just wow and it wasn't just the weakness in the quarter uh the company operating uh just really missing on on earnings it was also this Outlook and this sense coming off this earnings call that things are not going to get better for Intel uh this current quarter the next quarter or maybe any quarter this year and it just I think signifies just the continued struggle struggles and the transformation that Pat gelsinger has to to drive here to catch up to the likes of an AMD and video you name it yeah break out the uh the mullet wigs if you will because that was certainly talked about on the earnings call and of course this is the mullet trade that we talked about with Jeff rosenos Brent still once before and this kind of business in the front party in the back but it's a big question for Intel because there other factors that are impacting them a little bit more outsized than the rest of the market which will break down but what they said on the call is that they're expecting more positive expectation for the second half of the year and some of that is revolving around a recovery in China as well but in the near term profit margins or excuse me those gross margins of 39 well off of what investors had come to expect for almost a decade of roughly 60 percent in that same category it might be coming but they were so uncertain that that second half recovery is coming they didn't even give a forecast right and I think you really have to parse the gelsingerd's language here he said the possibility of second half improvements there is not really any optimism baked into this and the other interesting thing that caught my eye from the call the the head of investor relations saying that the first quarter is going to be the most significant inventory decline in our customers that we've seen in recent history and that has to do especially with the PC business and the company said PC sales this year are going to be at the low end of their forecast but also you and I were talking about this morning saws the data center business which had been a growth driver for the company is also not doing great yeah data center a key margin driving or margin driving segment for Intel and they continue to lose loose market share to likes of of an AMD and I think this is going to be another uh just turn around or transformation year for Intel and there they've acknowledged that they may not gain leadership in the tech in the chip space until 2025 so what happens in between there now there is one common I'm not seeing get talked about but they mentioned this on the earning Coalition I think it was pad talking about they're looking at other value creating initiatives uh over at Intel uh that definitely Rose my Spidey Sense unclear what that actually entails but is it more cost cutting this is a company that just three months ago outlined 10 billion dollars in Cost Cuts through 2025 so it's unclear to me what else could be under the umbrella yeah in terms of initiatives they man mentioned some of the initiatives that are underway trying to improve the gross margins three billion dollars in reductions that they had talked about for 2023 and one billion of that is in the cost of sales so that could pass back to or at least relate back to that cost uh that cost of sales or that headcount reduction that you're talking about as well and I'll just quickly add here too before we go on to another angle list I just don't think this is Pat's issue per se I think this reflects really Decades of just mismanagement and Intel now yes we're going to talk about can we talk let's let's pivot for a minute okay as Intel does continue to stumble and warrant of more trouble ahead some of its rivals in the semiconductor space are picking up speed two big Winners off of Intel's market share losses Taiwan semiconductor and amb both who have been taking business away from Intel quarter after quarter now let's talk about why that has been happening because everyone every chip maker rate is suffering from these macro headwinds so we've talked about including AMD and TSM to some degree Intel seems to be suffering the most and that that gets to what you're talking about size which is what is different what are some of the missteps that Intel has made that have brought us to this point it's something as simple as only two different things first AMD has been a beast over the past decade especially under co uh Dr Lisa Sue Nvidia has been a beast under Jensen Wong and Intel I go back to when Bob Swan was leadering before Pat and leaders before that I mean it went as so far as they removed I believe key performance indicators you essentially had Executives not uh just driving accountability throughout the organization and then over time that really helped them or LED to them losing market share and putting out really Best in Class products here so Pat was brought in I believe over two years ago to help turn this thing around and and a transformation of an iconic manufacturer like this does not happen overnight so just to hear Intel save 2025 is when they become a leader again and compete with an AMD and it's various other competitors I think it's very telling it takes a while to turn a ship like this around right and it's going to have to come on more spending which is going to compress margins even more War when they entered into this what 30 billion dollar multi-billion dollar partnership um not just with Brookfield but other partners as well to try and bring up their Foundry services to try to be able to produce and bring on online more capacity that's more money out the door for Intel and then where does that continue to have to move forward they've got to continue to Source materials to bring into those different operations and that is a five-year lead time at least by the time you not just break ground open up the capacity and then additionally start to ship out to Partners and then investors start to recognize that and so I think investors are trying to as best they can get ahead of these wave of spending that Intel is gonna have to do in the near term that makes some of the other players more viable as investment opportunities perhaps and that's why you see over the past five years and AMD soaring by about 500 percent in its stock price and Share value uh while Intel over the past five years is down by about 34 percent well also illustrates why Intel has so much work to do to catch up with it I mean because all AMD needs to do is keep doing what it's been doing Intel needs to really get a big step up here and I don't think that there's from an execution perspective it doesn't seem like the likes of an AMD or some of the other chip makers are wavering even though obviously we are in where we are in this glut environment for the the chip engine right let's see what uh AMD unveiled at CES a couple weeks ago is incredibly impressive and is likely to keep AMD as a market share Gainer
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