저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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관세 충격으로 증시가 급락했으나 'tech wreck'이 아니라 과도한 공포로 판단. 기술·금융·산업재는 펀더멘털이 양호하다고 봄. 관세로 인플레이션과 소비 위축(스태그플레이션) 우려가 커졌고, 채권시장은 인플레보다 경기둔화에 더 반응 중. 연준은 인플레 때문에 서둘러 금리를 내리지 않을 것으로 전망. 실업률 4.1%로 고용은 양호하나 고용지표 둔화 조짐. 다음 고용보고서 민간고용 약 15만명 예상, PCE 물가 상승 압력을 더 중시.
다듬은 글
Stocks plunging today. We know the worry. It's tariffs. What does it mean for the US economy? What it means for the global economy? You're talking to clients. Ed, on a day like today, what are you telling them? Well, I think it's too late to panic. I mean, it clearly that's the knee-jerk reaction of uh anyone that's in the market is with this kind of selloff is how much lower can we go?
And uh is is it too late to to panic? I I think it is. I I think there's some really interesting values occurring here because I I think we've seen some panic selling uh in in some areas of the market for sure. It's not broad-based uh but it's uh it's it's it's painful enough. Uh but this doesn't mean you have to rush in to uh to pick up these these bargains simply because the reality is uh the issue of tariffs and its impact on the economy.
Uh it's going to take a while to sort it out. It's ironic that so many people thought that um yes yesterday so-called liberation day would be peak uh uncertainty that once we got all the all the specifics on it we could kind of like breathe easier. But I don't think that's the case at all. I think there's still plenty of uncertainty about how all this plays out.
Will there be negotiations that bring these tariff rates down? I think there will be. Will there still be some uh issues with retaliation by other countries? I think there will be. I think it's going to be messy and it's uh it's probably going to be uh hanging over us for another couple of months and then we'll start focusing on the extension of the uh 2017 tax cuts.
Ed, I'm wondering where would you be looking for potential bargains on a day like today? Josh mentioned how the energy sector is a big loser, but they have actually done really well this year. Yeah. Do you see more upside there? And then what about big tech? They have gotten crushed for all of this year.
At what point do they finally bottom? Yeah. Well, when the current bull market started back in October 2022, it took us a couple of weeks to recognize it. In early November, we were recommending overweing um the uh technology and communication services. We were recommending overweighting financials and industrials.
And uh from a fundamental perspective, they still look pretty good to us. uh you know barring a really terrible recession uh we think u a lot of these areas are going to continue to grow. There's there is a lot of onshoring going on and that's good for industrials. The financials are very good shape.
Um they're not really exposed to any sort of major financial calamity here and they have lots of capital and then the technology companies actually have earnings. This is not the tech wreck. So, I think there is sort of a knee-jerk fear that this is going to turn out to be like what happened in 1999 2000 and kind of a big big bubble bursting, but uh I don't see it that way.
Ed, let me get your take on what we're seeing in the 10-year. You know, I'm looking here, we're back to 405. Is the message that's sending investors, Ed, is it that okay, recession fears right now outweigh inflation fears? And two, I'm curious, where do you see the 10ear headed from here? Yeah, I think you're right.
I think uh clearly the uh the straightforward interpretation is the bond yield has come down uh on the tariffs and u we we all know that the the tariffs could have an inflationary potential and that that in turn could create stagflation because consumers uh were consumers who voted for Trump many of them expected that the first thing it would do would bring prices down.
Instead we're going to see prices up. So that could depress consumer spending in the second half of the year. And you're right, the bond market seems to be focusing more on the weakening economy rather than on the inflationary potential. I think there's still a belief that the Fed's going to come in and save the day.
But I don't see that happening at all. I think uh the Fed is in no rush to bail out this misguided trade policy coming out of the administration. I think they're going to say, "Look, uh we can't move right here. We can't lower rates because we're going to have a bout of inflation. We think it's going to be transitory, but we can't be certain about that." And so I I think the Fed is uh is going to hold off uh giving us uh any sort of relief.
Yeah, I was going to ask you about that as well, Ed. With regards to the Federal Reserve, when do they feel compelled, do you think, to start lowering rates again? How high would the unemployment rate have to go? And is there the risk that they wait too long to cut at a time where we know they're in an easing cycle?
So, it's not as if there's the symbolism of it's the first rate cut. They've cut rates already a couple of times. It's just a pause right now. Yeah, it's it's a pause. And uh last we heard from them, they were still kind of in a doubish pause because they were saying that they're in no hurry to lower rates.
They didn't say we're in no hurry to do anything. They didn't say we're in no hurry to raise rates. They said we're no hurry to lower rates. So, their heads are still clearly focusing on on lowering interest rates here. Uh but uh the reason they're in no rush is because the economy up until now is actually looked pretty good and u inflation was still above their 2% target.
Now what we can expect is that inflation will look worse and the economy will look worse. So scratch your head and what do you do with that dual mandate? And I think uh for the sake of their credibility they can't let inflation get out of hand the way they did in 2021 22 23. So, I think they're they're going to say we we can't rush here because we got an inflation problem.
Ed, uh, tomorrow jobs report. Curious what you expect there. You know, Ed, really the labor markets look broadly stable, right? I mean, cooling, not crashing. That's been the mantra, but what do you see tomorrow and what do you see ahead for the labor market, Ed, given all the uncertainty we're dealing with here?
Well, that's the pity here is that the economy actually is in in pretty good shape. The labor market's in very good shape. The unemployment rate is 4.1%. But we are clearly seeing uh announcements of layoffs increase as a result of the Doge boys as I like to call them uh kind of announcing that they're going to reduce uh payrolls at the federal government level.
We aren't actually seeing that in initial unemployment claims. So it's not clear that what they're saying is what's happening because the courts of course have held them back on cutting back actual employment. But on the private peril side, I expect something like 150,000. That'll be consistent what we just saw with the ADP.
So, it's going to look fine. It looks like it looks like the economy is doing fine. But we just had the purchasing manager survey uh for uh non-manufacturing and we did see a rather sharp drop in that employment index. So, I I think uh employers are just as confused and concerned and fearful about the consequences of these uh trade policies and uh they're going to kind of stop hiring until they can figure out what's going on.
Uh I hope they don't start firing. Any chance at all, Ed, that we see a noticeable enough deceleration in wage growth in the jobs report tomorrow? I mean, if average hourly earnings don't rise at the type of level that would spook the markets about inflation, you could argue that maybe that tips the balance a little bit for the Fed to be more inclined to ease sooner rather than later.
Well, it's possible, but I think uh at the end of the day, the Fed really focuses on the consumer prices, the the PCED, the p personal consumption expenditures deflator. And uh that uh looks like it started to heat up uh last month and uh given what the tariffs are likely to do to auto prices and auto autorelated price prices, we are likely to have an inflation problem in the PCED.
And that's more important than what happens in wages. And of course if wages are moderate moderating but uh price inflation is increasing real wages are going down that's going to depress consumer spending hence we get stagflation. Ed always great to see you always great to have you on the show. Thank you sir. My pleasure. Thank you.
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