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oh you won't believe what Donald Trump just said about Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve let's analyze how exactly what's going on what it means for a potential Market correction also keep in mind that if you want to invest in my real estate startup coming out at a one-to-one valuation that's a steal of a deal you could do so but potentially only as a course member we're opening up Investments to course Members First and potentially only if we max out so make sure your course member before that coupon expires this Friday I would bet that over the next year leading into the 2024 election one of the biggest topics that will be argued about by politicians running for office will be the fate of the Federal Reserve Donald Trump just had a few Choice words to say about Jay Powell and we're going to review exactly those we'll also review what I predicted Donald Trump Trump would say just about a week ago but first it's worth remembering that criticizing Jerome Powell has not always been popular in fact very few criticized Jerome Powell during the pandemic when the money printer was flowing and everybody was making money however Republicans were initially first to start criticizing Powell for being too slow to respond to inflation and they were right Jerome Powell and the FED were way too slow they were still printing over 80 billion dollars per month when we had over six percent inflation because they believed that inflation would be transitory now maybe inflation would have been transitory if we were only facing one wave of covid and then we were done but we didn't have one wave of covid we had a wave of covet followed by a wave of Delta followed by a wave of Omicron and then War which led to a massive oil price shock and massive sustained inflation thanks to these oh over and over again repeated shocks breaking down Supply chains leading actually to de-globalization which is very inflationary and ultimately leading to a Federal Reserve that just missed the boat they printed money and too much money for too long let's not even get started by talking about the fraud that happened during covet let's just focus on what politically happened for a moment before covid see during covet we know that Republicans were first to criticize Jerome Powell but they were also critical of drone Powell before coven remember that when rates were actually rising in 2008 Donald Trump said he would consider firing Jerome Powell because it didn't make sense that Jerome Powell was Raising interest rates when in the mind of Donald Trump the economy was fine and there was a belief that potentially the economy might actually over overheat the yield curve inverted before covid it's inverted again now which is potentially a way of saying okay maybe we need to slow the economy down and try to orchestrate a soft Landing which is much of what the fed's trying to do now as well but inflation was actually running under Target in 2018 and previously leading a lot of people to wonder what why what was the point of slowing down the money printing if inflation was actually fine so you kind of have a little bit of a flip-flop right because in 2018-19 you had Republicans and Donald Trump like hey keep printing like why are you taking the punch bowl away and then in covet it's like hey all right we printed too much now okay now we printed too much let's let's take the punch bowl away and what's fascinating is the only ones to really criticize Powell now that the punch bowl is being taken away so far have been Democratic lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren I arguing that well hold on a second if you're raising rates this much you're going to overdo it and now you're going to cause a recession and you're going to lead to more joblessness in fact Elizabeth Warren says hey Jerome Powell isn't it true that if the unemployment rate goes up one percent it's likely to actually go up two or more percent isn't that historically true to which Jerome Powell actually said yeah that is historically true not only is that historically true but that's kind of planning for unemployment to rise another one percent this is leading to a lot of nervousness and so that's where we go right back to now and what we expect going forward with politics in the Federal Reserve because right now it feels like the Federal Reserve is crushing the economy a little too much markets are selling off because they believe the Federal Reserve is blind to essentially inflation being gone the markets here that the economy may not actually be trending into a recession in fact the FED at the end of July said maybe we're not trending towards a recession JP Morgan came out about a week later saying maybe there won't be a recession and since then the stock market has essentially been straight down part of the reason for that is because the stock market's like okay well if there's not gonna be a recession then there's no reason for Jerome Powell and the FED to cut interest rates so we're screwed if we stay at these rates for longer they're going to destroy the economy and that's what led me to tweet just about a week ago the following I expect Donald Trump will start promising zero percent rates by January 2025.
if he wins even though ultimately it's up to the Federal Reserve especially since under Joe Biden will probably start cutting just before the election in other words it would be popular if we're going to cut rates before the election for Donald Trump to start talking about demanding rates being cut sooner rather than later so maybe he could argue taking some credit for it although Donald Trump's probably not wrong here Donald Trump's actually probably right we probably ought to cut rates even though people believe that inflation could reanimate with a strong economy in cutting rates there is possibly a greater risk of going too far and breaking something that will not easily be able to be undone much like in China there is a fear that China has gone so deep into deflation where people just don't don't spend money that even if they do decide to cut rates which they recently did and they print even more money which they haven't quite done yet but they're you know it's they're revving ramping up to this potential idea that it won't have any effect because I've killed the economy so much it would be like poking a dead horse with a stick going come on horse get up it's too late you killed the economy that's what China did ever Grant just went bankrupt that's not good now listen to what Donald Trump just said today a day where the stock market let's just say hasn't had a fantastic day and the 10-year yield is skyrocketing because people are making a bet that dronepal is actually telling the truth they're going to keep rates higher for longer they're going to destroy the economy and so what does Donald Trump have to say about exactly that well of course Donald Trump is going to remind you to check out the coupon code expiring Friday you could use that for both the meet Kevin for as long as those go on and Financial advice we are actually now offering Financial advice at stack hack if you'd like to learn more about the financial advice Services we offer uh whether it is a fundamental research will throw in hours with our team doing fundamental research for you or portfolio analysis Financial advice learn more at stackhack.com keep in mind that the real estate startup coming up house hack may only end up selling shares to course members so you may as well take advantage of a great price now let's get started now with what Donald Trump says so you had exactly the reverse policies no matter what he says the facts show clearly that yours succeeded you actually had it going year on year three four percent economic growth until the Federal Reserve started tightening interest rates uh in 2018 and 2019.
I wanted to ask you about that because I know you were very cross at the Federal Reserve and very unhappy with Jay Powell now Powell's been reappointed as you well know he's going to be there till 2026 so a second Trump Administration you have to put up with j-pal what would you do about that and would you think about reappointing him or speaking with him or how would you handle that because interest rates can be important tools to stop inflation but they can also destroy growth yeah uh I would not reappoint him uh I thought he was always late whether it was good or bad but he was always late uh I was surprised he was reappointed probably he got reappointed because they knew I didn't like him much uh I felt that he was uh not good in fact I was very tough on him and if I wasn't I think we would have had much higher interest rates for much longer and we had a boom and it was primarily in fact one time it looked like I was going to come down on the very heart and he actually dropped him so much that it was like it was he dropped him so much at one time remember and people said wow what's wrong with the economy he gave him most improved player yeah but but anyway I'm not a fan of Jay pal okay well there you have it so first of all what is Donald Trump referring to when when he says that drone Powell in fact at one point dropped them so much at one time uh so that was covid and that was when Jerome battle dropped rates two percent on a Sunday an emergency announcement boom we're dropping rates Super Sound that was obviously an emergency situation but whether it was because of the political pressure from Donald Trump or not back in 2018 Jerome Powell did finally U-turn in December of 2018 and pause the rate hike cycle that we use on and then potentially suggest easing now that was a big moment for stocks because if you go back to the pain that we experienced in December of 2018 which was about a three month period you'll actually look back and see it was one heck of a time to buy now that's no guarantee that now is the time to buy everybody's going to have their different opinions on where and exactly what you should be buying right now and I'll give you my actional opinions in just a moment but take a look at this this was 2018 and I covered the FED then you can actually go back to my channel and look at my drone power videos from five years ago because I covered every minute of this and folks as you can see the market was on a beautiful uptrend but diverted from this uptrend very harshly here in 2018 where you had this correction from about 187 to 139 on the NASDAQ well just to put that into perspective that is a 25.7 decline in the NASDAQ that would be like if we go to present day today and say that we're revisiting a December of 2019.
let's go ahead and take our top here a recent top 387 let's call it 388. let's go ahead and take off about uh 26 so we're going to be down to 287 in that case 287 would bring us back to this about 23 Fibonacci level that would be quite a double dip it might not be all the way back to the fears of the Paul volcker times but it would be quite the dip back down if we had a December of 2018 style correction and this is where I believe that this is actually right now the moment that is most opportune for candidates like Donald Trump to start ramping up pressure on Jerome Powell mostly because I personally believe the fed's already overdone it with interest rate hikes I think inflation is solved every single day I read earnings calls for companies just in the last two days uh Target Walmart Home Depot what are they all saying no more inflation supply chain solved no need to raise wages anymore every single one of them are saying the same thing yet here we have a feathers where's even more I think this is going to turn into a massive political discussion the amount of political pressure that ramps up against the Fed will exponentially increase the more a we get closer to the election and B the stock market potentially sells down now it doesn't look like we're anywhere near a recession now the inverted yield curve suggests that we're going to be heading into a recession although they are steepening they're steepening back to banking crisis days in March of 2023 here that's as steep as we are again on the yield curve we're still negative by about 60 basis points but the point is we're steepening and when we use steepen you tend to experience pain which here we are we're experiencing pain this is part of the volatility that we were expecting in 2023 we just haven't actually had much of that volatility uh so anyway I wouldn't be surprised if we actually return back to this greater trend line that I have right here you can see this trend line I have drawn here if I somewhat extend that uh we'll grab the correct line here if I somewhat extend that trend line that I have drawn it wouldn't surprise me to end back up at about a 348 NASDAQ which means honestly we probably still have Jackson Hole to get through here Jackson Hole style sell-off maybe Jackson Hole is the opportunity for jpow to turn this around but if Jackson Hole next week goes bad and we actually get more of this Hawking from the FED when inflation is already proving to Trend down the market has more pain ahead of it not just another three percentage points on the NASDAQ but even more but again the political conversation around Jay Powell and his efforts will be ramping up because Donald Trump is hitting a nerve when he says that j-pow is always late so far Donald Trump is not wrong what do you think either way tomorrow remember that'll give you a first access to investing in house hack and potentially the only access to investing in-house hack when you work course member we'll see you soo it at Wolf have your ]
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