저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국채 10년물 금리가 4.6% 근처로 재상승, 트럼프 관세·수수료로 인플레 압력 우려. 호르무즈 봉쇄로 유가 상승(브렌트 80달러 근접). 나스닥 하락 예상, 하드웨어(반도체) 과밀 및 메모리 고점 가능성 제기, 소프트웨어 바닥 기대(3~4분기). 소프트웨어 중 UiPath 등 추천, 부동산·에너지 종목 추가 분석 예고.
다듬은 글
Well, we are back in the Strait of Hormuz, where the Strait of Hormuz is being blocked again. Now we have the 10-year Treasury bond approaching that ceiling again, knocking on the door of 46 again, which is not good. Our ceiling is usually 457. We almost never stay above that level. But this is a pretty important level if we break through it, because we constantly get reasons to expect inflationary impulses, if you can even call it a word, because of , frankly, the activities of Donald Trump.
I don't want to say this, but first it's tariffs, then protective fees. Yes. Now Donald Trump is announcing a 20% safeguard fee, which almost certainly goes against the WTO Article 5 conventions, which say, "Hey, these international waters should function without any fee." To be fair , that's exactly what Iran was trying to do.
And so Trump is now trying to fight fire with fire. And, uh, the reality is that the United States has power in the region, and power is right. It's kind of like how in real estate we like to say that ownership is 9/10ths of the law. You know, when people are evicted, it's the one who owns the property .
You know, these are the ones with the gold. So anyway, what's really interesting right now is that the NASDAQ is selling down. It is obvious that NASDAQ technology equipment stocks will decline. I expect this stock to go down as well. Although, strangely enough , it is barely green now. Uh, but I expect this stock to go down too.
In this case, it's also a very low-flat, uh, ADR, like SpaceX, and that makes it a little bit harder to do the hardware, which is obviously very concentrated in the NASDAQ 100. But what's interesting is that even though the NASDAQ 100 is down a percent, and so across the market, it seems like everything is in the red.
Look at the IGV ticker. IGB is something we talk about regularly on the channel almost everywhere, mainly because we have such a large concentration in cybersecurity and software, and we expect to bottom out in the third and fourth quarters in software, and after all, we're already in the third quarter.
So maybe it's finally starting, even though it's been in bits and pieces for the last three or four weeks. So we'll see. It's worth keeping an eye on this. I personally believe that for the NASDAQ 100 to reach 750 or 800, we really need stabilization in the hardware. SKH Highix, great mitigation, let's get some stability in the hardware.
Let's keep Nvidia above 200, AMD above 500. Then hopefully we'll get an expansion in software. We will get this extension in the software . What will happen? Perfectly. Now we can reach new all- time highs. So it's a good thing we don't have a big sale today. But unfortunately, these inflationary pressures will be mentioned in Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, which begins tomorrow.
Remember, Kevin Walsh is intentionally keeping a relative silence. His communication vacuum regarding the inflation thesis is that we will only pay attention to two parts. We will not pay attention to the decimal point. In addition, we will have a forecast for the future when the working groups are ready to use it.
This is not very comforting for the markets as it leads to markets continuing to factor in prices. Let's go. Another inflationary push. We will have to expect the Federal Reserve to be forced to raise rates, creating the risk of peak Allen Greenspan. We'll talk about that in a moment. But since I'm in London and catching another flight to Amsterdam to visit family, we added a very short vacation coupon on meetke.com.
So check it out. mekevin.com vacation coupons and join alpha membership. We still do an alpha report every day. Uh, and you'll still get this in your feed every day, even while I'm gone . And, of course, we will soon return to live streaming for course participants. But going back to Donald Trump and this blockade, remember that a lot of oil found another route, and then we'll talk about how a lot of oil actually found another route out of Hormuz, despite the blockade of Hormuz.
We have maybe about 34% of the oil. So, a lot of Saudi and Omani oil was able to use their pipelines to be exported from the Red Sea. And remember, the Houthis in Yemen haven't yet blocked the direct path to the bottom of the Red Sea, which is great because we support the international flow of oil. But again , it is expected that only about a third, about 34%, actually found another route.
So that's one of the reasons why we're still stuck with high oil prices compared to what they were at the beginning of January . At the beginning of January, around $59, around $60, something like that. Now we are about to break through $80 for Brent again. So we're still a third higher than we were at the beginning of the year.
Partly because this ceasefire, as Iran tells us, is now, quote, in crisis mode. So I did a little searching to see, and I know a lot , you know, this is not a video about discussing the JCPOA and its pros and cons or anything like that, weapons inspections on nuclear weapons and so on. But I looked at how long it actually took to negotiate the JCPOA and who was involved.
And what was notable was that China, Russia, the United States, Germany, there was another country, actually I think there were two more countries, because it was the P5+1. Anyway, the P5+1 of the UN was involved in the JCPOA negotiations with the Obama administration for 20 months. It's been almost two years.
And literally China, Russia, and the United States were on the same side. China is not participating at the moment . China doesn't seem to be interfering. Okay, whatever , dude. It's like they're spying and seeing, in my opinion, is that really all you have? The USA, Taiwan look juicier every day. So, China is not involved.
Obviously, Russia is not involved. And I mean, you know, some people say Russia is involved. I mean, isn't it a little strange that we just visited Kyiv with a senator who was completely healthy on video one day and died of cardiac arrest two days later? But we're not here to provide conspiracy theories.
Leave that to the autopsies and what comes after that. Hmm, but in any case, this is a completely different situation. You only have the United States negotiating with Irvan. You have some members who are supportive. Obviously, Pakistan is trying to help. You have, uh , the Omanis and Qatar trying to help, but we don't have a definitive breakthrough yet.
I argue, as we have said regularly, that there is a rush to enrich as much uranium as possible deep inside Pickaxe Mountain. I believe that every vehicle entering and leaving Pickaxe Mountain, just outside of Fordow, that is, outside of Nathans, not outside of Foro, is documented and recorded by satellite.
We were watching this like a hawk. And I wouldn't be surprised if one of the reasons is the increased pressure of, "Hey, this deal isn't working the way we want it to," instead of having the kind of long process or patience that we saw under the Obama administration, we're very quick to strike, mainly because Donald Trump has to do it, and a lot of people are calling on him to "quote, finish the job." I think on one side there are people who say we need to finish the job.
On the other hand, there are people who are in a similar situation. There are people who say they get rich faster. This is probably intelligence that the United States is receiving. And on the other hand, of course , there are people who simply complain about Donald Trump and say that he was a failure.
This was a big mistake. Understand that no one tried to charge for four steps before this invasion. The invasion may have been partly due to Donald Trump's impatience. Remember that , uh, Israel reported that Donald Trump, uh, was preparing an assassination attempt against him by Iran. And back in February, Israel told us that Iran could explode in two weeks .
Apparently, this now applies to Belgium too, given what happened with the, uh, football match. I can't believe they could explode in two weeks , just kidding. But anyway, let's think about it practically for the market. So, practically, here's what I'm looking at: I'm looking at this as an opportunity for IGV.
I think the hardware is pretty overcrowded, and while I think there's still room to expect another hardware increase, I wouldn't be surprised if memory has already peaked. We did a video a couple of weeks ago, actually it was about four weeks ago about memory hardware. I still think stocks like Nvidia have upside potential, even given their size in other hardware companies, whether it's Vertive or even Dell.
Dell was fantastic. A server rack business with very low margins but high, high, high, high, high volume, maybe it can continue to operate. But, in my opinion, this hardware remains in average trading volume. And unless you have some crazy 10- year thesis, which I think a company like Marll has, then, you know, it's time to move on to something else.
And this , in my opinion, is something different. Software, software and more software. Clearly, there is great concern about AI disruption. And this is where companies with platform modes win. One company I should have mentioned last week when I was talking about Meta on the channel, and when I was also talking about Salesforce to a lesser extent, you know, two pounds to the dollar at Salesforce.
Salesforce may turn out to be a value trap, but let's just say , uh, there's more research on Salesforce than just its valuation. There are some interesting things happening there. Uh, but nevertheless, there's another company that actually has platform development that's worth looking at, and that's what a lot of people are doing right now, they're asking, "Where's actually the platform integration so we can integrate LLM and the platform technology that we have?" Both UiPath and UiPath would be number three to consider.
Why? Because they were originally the developers of, uh , RBA, robotic RP, robotic pathway automation . Make sure I understand correctly. I don't have any notes. This is all coming to mind now. So basically, how do we integrate systematic processes that are repeated regularly across a company? And how do we get inside companies where companies use us and rely on our platform regularly, and then pay us a licensing fee for what we've created?
Is there a risk that someone could just create their own platform this way and customize it? Absolutely. And that's why the stock has fallen to $10, which seems to be the lower limit. No, no guarantees about that. This seems to be the lower limit. A very, very cheap company based on straight P/E. High cash flow, profitable.
You, like revenues, appeal to corporate clients, namely those where you want to see them. The customers you are losing are the same customers you see at all other software companies. Companies with lower dollar values are giving up. This is a very common phenomenon. They either create something of their own or something like that, but larger enterprises, especially very common in healthcare and banking, are not in the business of creating their own software.
They use existing platforms like UiPath or Salesforce for commerce enterprises, or Palunteer, and let those teams help them build what they need, and then they pay for it. It may not last forever, and there will definitely be some disruptions, but keep an eye on the profits of these three companies.
And you know, people always say, “But Kevin, you know, you can’t just tell all the secrets to the course participants. "You have to give us something too. " And that's true, because that's why we make these videos, and we take it all apart. That's what I'm drawing attention to. Of course, no guarantees.
Now, as we do more fundamental analysis, which I'm publishing more this week for course participants, my goal is to publish four or five fundamental analyses of new stocks this week for course participants. You will be able to see it in the promotions tab and I will send a notification when they are ready.
Remember, you can join on meet.com. Use this red coupon for a vacation. We believe it is posted on time. But, uh, we're going to pick four more companies, probably in software, although part of me is also thinking about real estate, uh, and then either energy or utilities. Overall, I'm not a big fan of utilities.
So I'll probably choose energy, real estate, and two software options . These are probably the four I'm looking for this week. Um, mostly because real estate stocks suffered after Donald Trump's ban on institutional investors, which has a million exceptions and is worth absolutely nothing in terms of actually banning anything.
So, for example, the invitation to rent American homes, for example, which one is better, we'll do the same with energy, not, you know, I have something to say about Olo, but you know other opportunities, and then we'll look at some other software names . Um, a lot of people have been asking about Service Now .
We've already done an in-depth analysis of Service Now, so we'll do another analysis, but these are some of the things we'll be looking for. Um, with that in mind, thank you very much for being here, and see you in the next video. Goodbye and good luck.
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