저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기침체 시 아파트 대형 멀티패밀리가 주택·소형 수익형보다 유리하다는 통념과 달리, 하버드 연구를 인용해 멀티패밀리가 공실률(2009년 50년 내 최고), 임대료 하락(1년 4.1%), 자산가치 하락(40% vs 32%)에서 더 불리했다고 설명. 투자 원칙으로 30분 거리 내 투자, 과도한 투기 금지, 30년 고정금리 등을 제시. 개별 종목 가격 예측 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here what do you think happens to real estate in a recession and do you think there's any difference between small real estate like houses or duplexes and really big apartment buildings like the big boy kind of stuff well yeah I mean a lot of us usually think well okay let's think about this logically oh we're all logical people so let's think about this okay recession happens people are likely to lose their jobs that make sense for session people lose their jobs okay and then those people might have to sell their houses if they own one and then they become tenants which means they'll probably be more tenants which means they'd probably go rent from apartment buildings which means rents will go up at apartment buildings and prices go up at apartment buildings so apartment building so where it's at for investing in real estate yeah what have I told you Harvard found that was totally wrong well you might be surprised and so was i I was so surprised at that well I wanted to share it with you now to make this as simple as possible I'm gonna include little footnotes here at the bottom of the screen just so you could see which section of the study I'm referencing and if you want to see a copy of the study that I've annotated just click the link in the description down below right under where you can take advantage of joining me in my real estate courses or courses on money and property management and join me for my daily live streams at 9 a.m.
every day all right so what was the difference what happened between a s is really where things get shocking first of all Harvard actually found that there was more speculation in multi-family real estate leading up to the crash which speculation is bad speculation means you have people going into deals not caring about how much they're paying they just want to park money when you hear people say I just want to park money and I don't mind paying a hundred million dollars for that apartment deal because I'm gonna sell it to some idiot who's gonna pay me 120 million dollars for it twenty million dollars profit for me when you hear people saying that you're listening to a perfect example something called the greater fool than I threw if you haven't heard of that theory before it basically says hey you know what I'm gonna buy this and they'll always be a greater fool than I who will pay more money for me and that's really bad and Harvard found that there was actually more of this kind of speculation in multi-family real estate over single-family real estate which doesn't end too well for multifamily real estate despite us going into this thinking that wait a minute more people should be wanting multi-family real estate during a recession yeah wait for that one unfortunately because there was so much speculation before the crash big investment companies had to get more creative and they started getting interest-only loans and shorter term riskier debt that came with things called balloon payments balloon payments basically mean hey went seven or ten years go by the bank calls you up and say you owe us all the money well that's really bad if you almost all the money during a recession and that's exactly what ended up taking down a lot of real estate investments in the bigger multifamily space don't get me wrong there was plenty of speculation and single family dead people were getting loans teachers were getting mansions okay it was bad but a lot of these investment companies were taking out shorter term debt or interest-only debt where they're not even paying down the loan because they wanted to be able to tell their investors hey look you're getting bigger dividends you're getting more cash flow but they weren't actually getting better deals they weren't actually running the properties better they were just getting crappier and riskier forms of financing to compensate for the fact that the deals were crappier and on top of that before the crash bigger multifamily investment companies started looking in areas outside of their expertise and started investing in areas just to try to find more cash flow when in reality they were investing in areas with riskier tenants this is what Harvard found when it came time for the crash a couple of interesting things happen first of all tenants ended up suffering a lot more of what's called a rent burden this is kind of like if you get paid $2,000 a month and your rents $500 your rent burden is about 25 percent right 25 percent of your pay goes to your rent well what if your hours now get cut and you're only making $1,000 and your rents $500 your burden just went up to 50 percent well during the crash a Harvard found that a lot of tenants rent burden went sky-high as their hours or jobs got cut back and this disproportionately affected very low-income or low-income tenants specifically in multifamily real estate as more tenants got stressed out during the recession and either had to leave or get evicted operating costs for big multifamily apartment buildings went up as evictions went up maintenance went up and other unexpected costs all went up at the same time so all of a sudden there was less rent coming in expenses were going up and landlords were really starting to suffer at the same time the clock was ticking on shorter term riskier debt and this is where three really big and shocking things ended up happening to multifamily real estate compared to single-family real estate which I have to say blew my mind but here's the data vacancy rates or the percentage of units that are vacant or not paying rent went up substantially higher in multifamily real estate over single-family real estate or smaller deal real estate like duplexes triplexes and for plexes because Harvard found that people preferred renting single-family properties this was at the same time as less big multifamily buildings were being constructed which means you actually had less supply but ironically the opposite half less supply the markets crashing and vacancy rates and multifamily are going up higher worse than in single-family real estate this is Harvard's conclusion not mine in fact vacancy rates got so bad that in 2009 vacancy rates for multifamily real estate jumped to the highest level ever recorded in the 50 years data was recorded on multifamily real estate vacancy rates obviously vacancy rates went up for single family and small deals as well but I thought it was ironic that multi-family real estate would have a higher vacancy rate than these other forms of investments it's kind of the opposite of what we would think would happen this impact by the way was even more prominent in areas that were considered over built like Dayton Ohio Phoenix Arizona Memphis Tennessee and Orlando compared to areas that were under build like Sacramento Indianapolis or Grand Rapids by the way quick shout-out to Benjamin who purchased his first property in a desirable neighborhood in his area at a wedge a deal Benjamin is in my real estate investing group and do-it-yourself property management group and says the courses are well worth the money just do it and you'll thank yourself later thanks Benjamin on top of substantially higher vacancy rates real estate rents for multi-family real estate dropped four point one percent in just one year from 2008 to 2009 especially as larger multifamily real estate started offering more concessions like your first month free if you move in with us just to try to compete with the single family and small deal landlords well now guess what happened vacancy rates up more evictions more problems rent is going down operating expenses are going up so all the costs are higher the incomes lower guess what ended up happening to multifamily property values despite our assumption that multi-family real estate would do better than small deal real estate in a recession property values in multi-family real estate plunged in fact they ended up falling more than single-family real estate home values fell let's do the math Harvard found that if you invested $100,000 into multifamily real estate your 100k would be worth a hundred ninety five thousand dollars at the peak just really good unfortunately during the crash multifamily real estate lost forty percent of its value throughout the country which meant that one hundred ninety five thousand dollars went down to about one hundred seventeen thousand dollars on the flip side had you invested that $100,000 into single-family or small deal real estate your $100,000 would have grown to a hundred seventy six thousand dollars which is less than the multifamily real estate probably because of all of the rampant speculation and overpaying and risky loans but single-family or small deal real estate only ended up falling 32 percent in value which would have left you with about a hundred nineteen thousand six hundred eighty dollars now obviously that's pretty close you could almost sare basically on roughly the same market cycle but it totally kills the belief we had at the beginning of this video and that's the crazy thing at the beginning of the video we said recession more tenants more people are gonna rent multifamily but Harvard found the exact opposite happened less people chose to rent multifamily multifamily ended up having more management nightmares and ended up falling in property value more than small-scale real estate that was mind-blowing for me and so that really got me thinking about my real estate investing strategy I've always been tempted to invest in different areas maybe where there's more cash flow because I'm in Southern California and Here I am doing really well investing in wedge deals buying houses and small deals below market value where I know the day I buy it it's worth way more than what I paid for it that's good I don't get that in stocks when I pay $400 for Tesla stock I paid $400 for Tesla it's worth more in $1 if it goes up or down tomorrow that's speculation but when I can buy a house for $400,000 and know it's worth $600,000 tomorrow that's money in my pocket but I have to come clean I've been tempted to invest in places like Arizona where it looks like there's more cash flow or Florida or Idaho or whatever because of this interest in well there's more cash flow but after this study I start realizing uh-uh no no no do not break what I tell all my course members is a must follow rule 30 minute rule do not invest outside of 30 minutes from where you live number two do not speculate don't overpay for an apartment building just to say you got an apartment building that's bad speculation is very very painful see this is where if we go back to those Harvard numbers and we say hey you know what for that single-family equation instead of investing $100,000 what if we only invested $70,000 but we took control of a deal that was worth $100,000 you're still so much more up on this real estate ride than you would have been paying market value for the multifamily deal another rule that really reinforced what I've believed for a long time is stick to really safe financing 30-year fixed-rate financing the longest term of fixed-rate financing you can get why bother with prepayment penalties and expensive appraisals and balloon payments on commercial loans and stay away from over built areas that got hit a lot harder with way worse vacancy rates during the recession and don't get me wrong I love multifamily real estate I love apartment buildings I love the fact that if you own a 10 unit apartment building and you raise the rent just 30 dollars per unit all of your monthly cash flow goes up by $300 a month in one swoop like that's cool that's really awesome and that kind of makes you feel like you have more scale but the problem is we've got to separate the misconceptions like oh multifamily does better in a crash no it doesn't from actual investing principles another big misconception is that somehow scale is going to get you a better deal when in fact it's more likely to do the opposite see when you start looking at scale and these bigger apartment buildings what are you setting yourself up for competing with well you're more likely to compete with these hedge funds and these Wall Street companies and these capital funds that want to dump money into real estate and they don't care how much they're paying so you're competing against this really sophisticated audience with a lot of money to get into big multi-family deals and I mean by big multi-family tails I honestly just mean anything above 5 10 20 30 50 units like all that stuff it's all gonna be exposed to more sophisticated investors with more money in other words there's no surprise it's harder to get good deals on bigger multifamily deals because the whole scale concept which is how fun sell you into investing with them is really just a way for funds to park money faster and get their fees faster scale actually ends up hurting you because you end up with a worse deal because there's more competition which makes sense and that's where I usually recommend anytime you're thinking about investing in something remember this $10,000 is $10,000 if I put $10,000 into a condo and I make $1,000 I made 10% on my money if I put $10,000 into a 100 unit apartment building with some investment fund and I made $1,000 I made 10% if I put the money into Tesla 10 now's lawyers in the Tesla and I made $1,000 it's 10% it's all the same which I know that might sound like well Doug heaven I mean obviously but wait a minute what do most people say about real estate oh gosh well a duplex is better than a single-family house because you have two units it doesn't make difference $10,000 here or $10,000 there how many doors the property has doesn't predict which one's going to do better the style of management how good of a deal you got going in how good of an area it is the appreciation the cash flow all of these things come together to give you a return so there's no way somebody could say oh because this has a hundred doors and a big pool and over there are 20 single-family houses doesn't necessarily mean one is better than the others it always comes down to the numbers so I don't know about you but this information is really fascinating and helps me kind of make sure I keep putting money where I know to put it wedge deals safe loans safe places this is the stuff I've been preaching on this channel for years I'm really surprised I found a Harvard study that found the same thing to be true let me know what you think remember link is in the description down below right below those courses check those out and we'll see you next time
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