저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥 단기 반등 이후 고점 근처에서 추격매수를 자제하고 5% 조정이나 저점 상승 확인 후 진입을 권고. 레버리지 ETF(SOXL·TQQQ)는 주봉상 아직 고점 돌파 과정이므로 주의, 테슬라는 시장 대비 약세라 조정 시 저가 매수 전략을 제시. 손절 설정과 원칙 중심 대응을 강조.
다듬은 글
closed with a gain of about 0.5%. It appears to be hovering near the high point. Many of you— those who missed the opportunity to buy—are likely feeling a strong urge to purchase at this current level. However, if that is the case, it means now is not the time to buy. In other words, because profit-taking sales are taking place after the market has been pushed back due to such sentiment, the fact that you have a strong desire to buy at this level implies that those who have already made money are using that psychology to sell.
So, first of all, this high point has reached the previous high, and more importantly, a wave has already occurred. Therefore, I do not think there is a need for us to enter at this point. Please observe the wave a bit more. I believe that entering when there is at least a 5% correction is a way to invest more comfortably, rather than relying on psychological factors.
There is no reason for a significant change in your outlook due to this rise. As I keep telling you, it is a simple movement As a result, the market, which had been moving in a reverse order, bounced up once, and the direction changed. These moving averages, right? They were going down, but now we are at the beginning of a change in direction like this.
So, for this trend to continue, if a process of creating waves occurs by raising the lows again, this wave can continue further upward. Therefore, instead of making a fuss about this rise and saying things like "Oh, a major bull run has begun," we just need to watch how the next direction is established.
This is because, as you can see, the direction that was cut downwards due to this rise has shifted upwards, and since strong buying pressure came in and changed the direction, we need to confirm how the direction goes next. If it just collapses here, it will lead to a downward trend while trapping a huge number of people.
However, if it raises the lows and establishes support, there is a possibility that the rise will continue to some extent after this, so that is when you should enter the market. Of course, it would have been good to buy at this point as well—entering during the gap-up zone to take short-term profits would have been good, but...
we [are taking] a safe risk When considering managed investing, there is no need to obsess over missed gains. We simply need to control our psychology. So, if we look at the current position, it seems we can view this as a similar phase. After breaking through with surprisingly strong energy, the direction shifted from a continuous downward trend to an upward one.
There was a process where the price touched a low point and pushed upwards steadily. Given this, if we were to enter the market now just because we missed the rise in this zone, our average purchase price would end up stuck for several months. As you can see, if I bought in this zone in February, it takes almost three to four months to break out of the same price level.
Do not do that. At this high position, unless you entered right here, you should wait or take profits and wait to see how the next wave develops. If you are a long-term investor, even if you bought here, you should hold on and prepare cash to increase your position when the next low rises. Therefore, regarding market movements, you don't have to worry about how far to enter from here.
Predicting what will happen is actually meaningless; what we need to consider is how we will respond. If the energy continues, as I mentioned here, the Nasdaq could touch the upper limit of the existing trend line, specifically the 15 level— that is one scenario. However, if that does not happen, we could see a movement to confirm the lower limit while undergoing a short-term correction near this year's previous high.
In that case, the location where that lower limit is confirmed becomes meaningless in terms of where the support line is established. This is because the current push is driven by sentiment, and regarding macroeconomic trends—as I explained earlier—there is the expectation of a pivot, plus various other factors.
There is a slight decrease in inflation, and on top of that, there are concerns about deflation, or recession. Since various sentiments are mixed in this situation, it is not a zone where we can simply say it will definitely go up or definitely fall. Currently, the market has been pushed up steadily following the short-term interest rate freeze due to expectations of a pivot.
What factors will be added to move this market from now on is beyond the realm of our prediction. So, regarding that aspect... Rather than trying to predict, you need to establish principles. For example, if you have made a purchase, you should establish a principle of taking profits near the previous high, or if you believe that because the current energy is strong, the price will touch the trend once before the previous one, you should realize 50% of your position here and hold to prepare for further gains.
However, if your stance is that since this is a retracement wave, you will let it flow and decide to buy after seeing where the next bottom is formed, then waiting is the appropriate strategy rather than entering at a high price right now. You simply need to establish principles that fit the market based on your individual investment style and principles; there is no need to make a huge fuss as if you have missed a massive opportunity just because a retracement rebound has occurred.
Making a fuss about missing this implies that a sense of entitlement has kicked in. You are thinking, " I didn't make money when others were making it, and I waited this long, yet I missed out." In that case, you need to reflect on why you couldn't profit at that time. I am telling you not to fall into a vicious cycle where you insist on entering at a high position here, get stuck while others realize profits, spend two or three months struggling just to lower your average purchase price, and then fail to re-enter the market when it rises again.
If you missed a spot, you should coolly watch it, whether it reaches 15.5 or 16.00. However, if you do want to make an additional purchase here, you must set a stop-loss line with a cool head. Ultimately, this is a very important point when buying in a risky zone. Taking on risk means you also need to make an effort to reduce it.
This is exactly what a stop-loss is. In other words, when buying in a risky zone—that is, at such a high position—you must set your stop-loss line coolly. For instance, if you intend to sell if the previous gap-up zone collapses, you need to ensure that your stop-loss is triggered at the 13.8 or 900 level on the NaDac.
Therefore, you must be aware that there is risk because the price wave has already progressed significantly from this position, and you should proceed with your purchase. If you intend to proceed, I think it would be best to set up a stop-loss plan accordingly before buying. In the case of QQQ, it has already nearly reached its previous high.
Since the rebound was as strong as the massive rally of 2021, the direction of the moving averages has already shifted in the short term, and the long-term moving average is also maintaining its position. Therefore, now is the time to observe how it blocks resistance, confirms a bottom, and turns into an uptrend again.
Rather than buying near the previous high, please be aware that there may be resistance there. It would be good to reduce your position size slightly or make strategic decisions as I explained earlier. SXX is also reaching near its previous high. However, here is something I really want to tell those investing with triple leverage: looking at the auxiliary indicators, you might think this is not a bad zone to invest in right now.
However, this can be a deception. Even though it is a stock that has already reached near its previous high, as you can see, it appears to be starting from a significantly low position. The point is that there can be a deception. In other words, in the case of TQ, if you look at the weekly chart, it appears to be just starting from a very low position.
Both TQ and SXL are currently trading at quite low levels, right? However, you need to be aware that the actual trend is one of challenging the upside from a significantly high position. Since the large price difference in this zone is due to the divergence rate, please acknowledge this point. I am telling you to enter with the understanding that this is not starting from the bottom, but rather reaching the previous high.
This is because, when viewed with 3x leverage, it appears as though there is upside potential two or three times from an extremely low price level. However, I want to explain once again that you must understand that it is currently in the process of challenging a previous high position to reach two or three times that amount.
Now, regarding Tesla, as you can see, I mentioned that among large-cap stocks, the energy sector is relatively weak. Since it failed to rise when others were rising and is continuously failing to break through the short-term upward trend, if the market enters a short-term correction phase, there is a possibility that Tesla will also experience a correction.
Therefore... Even looking at the daily chart, we are currently seeing a pattern of repeated resistance within the trend. In the short term, regarding the Nasdaq, you can consider it to have reached a certain level while forming these waves. The fact that it has reached this level implies that if a short-term correction occurs, Tesla could also experience a correction along with it.
I believe it would be more advantageous to buy at that low point. This is because it is currently moving as a weaker stock than the market, rather than a stock that beats it. Therefore, I think it is more favorable for profit and a better strategy to target the rebound buying pressure that comes in when the decline widens during a correction.
So, please keep in mind that a wave has already occurred once for Tesla as well. Rather than buying just because you feel an overwhelming urge to buy right now, I think it is necessary to maintain a mindset of mind control while waiting for the wave to develop. I am also maintaining that mindset myself.
Conversely, I continue to pay attention to and invest in stocks like this that are positioned at the beginning of an uptrend. So, regarding your own investments... I think you just need to stick to the principles. So, I will end today's video here for now. Thank you.
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