저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 0.3% 상승 마감 후 상승 탄력이 둔화되며 13,000대 하락추세선과 저항선에 막혀 있음. 반도체는 보합으로 저항선에서 고전 중이며 3거래일 상승분 이후 추가 상승 여력 제한. VIX 다이버전스·데드크로스 등을 근거로 리스크 관리와 분할 대응 강조, 전 재산 투자는 비추천. 금리 인하가 곧 증시 상승이 아니며 역사적으로 침체 후 인하가 반복된다고 경고. 명확한 방향 예측보다는 시나리오 중심 발언.
다듬은 글
closed yesterday with a gain of about 0.3%. We can see that the upward momentum, which had been strong, has now cooled down. The reason for this is fundamentally because this area is situated in a zone with a significant number of resistance lines. As you can see, the line from the low 14,000s to the high 13,000s has been continuously functioning as resistance.
Therefore, I would say there is a possibility that the uptrend will slow down from this point onward. So, regarding this rebound, it has already been exactly three trading days since the full-scale rise began, and it is now slowing down. While some may have made a profit during those three trading days, the probability that the majority are still making a profit after just one or two days is low.
Consequently, as a market analyst, I have repeatedly emphasized that it is difficult to recommend entering short positions. This is because risk management is crucial. You must buy only when risk is minimized as much as possible. In a way, we could potentially make a profit in the long term. However, regarding the rise on a trading day, the subsequent trend lines, and the risk zone of a bearish arrangement, I am telling you that it is not quite safe to hold the stock for the long term.
As I always say, when the price rises like this, many people appear who get overly excited and start panicking. They appear, but then disappear during these correction phases, right? This is a pattern I have observed for a long time; it was exactly the same in 2022. So, regarding these aspects, I am not advocating against buying.
As I have mentioned many times, I stated that this is the time to buy. I advised you to watch for support and buy once the market stabilizes. I warned that we need to be cautious during this period due to financial factors, and I emphasized that we must confirm the bottom line. Therefore, you should always remember only what you want to remember, because I generally tend to speak in terms of scenarios.
You need to understand this. There is Scenario 1 and Scenario 2; you respond like this when Scenario 1 appears, and respond like this when Scenario 2 appears. Basically, this is how you approach investing. It must be done. I am not someone who can predict whether the market will go up or down. If I did, I would be a shaman making a fortune.
So, I would like you to think a little more about the essence of investing. Currently, in the case of the Nasdaq, a trend is emerging where it is challenging the upper end of the downward trend line, the high 13,000s, while the upward momentum that rose strongly for three days is showing signs of slowing down.
I will summarize it like this. QQQ is also showing a similar pattern with a rise of about 0.4%, and as for semiconductor stocks, they ended the day flat and are showing signs of struggling a bit at the resistance line. Usually, semiconductors lead the market, and if the S500 or Dow follow, then based on current standards, semiconductors move the fastest, followed by tech stocks, then the SMP 500, and finally the Dow.
You can view it as moving in that order. So, the fact that semiconductors showed a flat trend is something we cannot judge in just one day. Please take a look this week and see what happens. It would be good if you could check if it hits resistance and starts to fall. So, what I am saying is that if anyone is considering going all-in at this position, that is fine.
It is up to each individual's judgment and will, so you are free to go all-in on your entire fortune here. I do not think that is a wrong investment; however, I am saying that I do not do that. So, looking at the current situation, I mentioned that I did not buy because the rebound was too short. Currently, the market is moving toward confirming the resistance line.
Also, since the German index finished somewhat flat and fell after hitting the resistance line, those factors could also have a certain impact. I will summarize it like this. And above all, the reason I continue to offer a cautious view is that you have likely heard this a lot while investing with me: I have often said that it is better to invest when the VIX—what we call the risk index—is forming this kind of divergence.
If you have been watching my videos, then right now, it is forming this divergence while creating a "dead cross"—which is good in a market, isn't it? In a previous zone, we could invest relatively safely, but we are currently in a certain zone. My point is whether we really need to take on the risk of pouring in a large amount of assets at this position.
In a way, since this could be a turning point, while you should invest if you absolutely feel it is necessary, there are times when we need to take a break and times when we need to observe the market. As you can see, we are currently at a turning point—specifically, forming a Golden Cross to create an uptrend based on the VIX index—and are in a position where a pump is possible.
That is why I keep asking whether we really need to place a bet at this point. For example, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets rose significantly yesterday, right? Let's take a look. They rose to a position where they could rise in just one day. Utilizing the positive news of the short-selling ban, they have surged sharply up to the 25-day moving average.
If you look, this is a major resistance line, right? It is currently blocked right at the 20-day moving average. I think the KOSDAQ is likely similar, right? So, what we need to consider is... You need to consider whether to invest your entire fortune or to observe how the market moves today and decide whether to buy or sell after seeing if it hits resistance and falls.
In my case, I do n't think it's something to be too upset about just because it has risen like this and I missed out on a profit. After all, even in a downtrend, there are actually many stocks that hit the upper limit. You see them occasionally on the KOSPI every day, right? Stocks that fall like this and then suddenly surge—stocks you've never heard of before, right?
You've seen various such stocks on the KOSDAQ, haven't you? There are so many stocks that hit the upper limit in a state where you think, "There was a company like this." The question is, are you going to engage in an investment style where you go around searching for those kinds of stocks? If you intend to always buy only falling stocks just to catch those, then while this might feel like a waste right now, it is certainly not a safe position.
In other words, from the perspective of risk management, whether the KOSPI rose 7% or 5%—it is just that what should have taken three days rose in one day—if it rose in one day when it should have taken three, that is actually not good. Because I... one day Even if you enter the market, the opportunity to gain two more days was shortened because the price rose in just one day.
What I mean is, for example, if the gains that could have taken nearly four months were lifted in a single day, a sector attracting attention would emerge as a leading stock during that rise, right? Then, if we find and invest in that leading stock, we make a profit. However, the fact that it rose like this means the leading stock took a significant amount of gains at once, while the remaining sectors rose gradually.
But since the upside potential has already hit its limit, there is a possibility that the investment period itself will become shorter. So, you should think of a rapid rise as being similar to giving back the duration of the rise. Now, if there are people here who are planning to invest their entire fortune, as I said before, that is a tendency to like risk.
However, what those who invest heavily and always exercise caution emphasize is, fundamentally, risk management. Since we have reached the 200-day moving average resistance at this position, you should make your decision while observing how it moves from this point. In my case, I would rather look at those aspects...
Since I believe it is safe to enter, I tried to explain my view on that aspect. So, regarding the overall market trend, the situation is a bit ambiguous. I still do not consider this a late buying opportunity. I need to continue confirming, at the very least, that the lows are getting higher. In a way, the trend of the moving averages needs to change, but since the short-term moving average trend is currently heading downward, I still view it as risky.
So, I don't know what kind of trend will emerge at the end of the year. Many people have conflicting views right now. Some say that the interest rate freeze presents an opportunity to make a profit, while Bill Gross, considered a master of bond investment, says there is a high possibility of a recession next year.
What you are currently misunderstanding is that many of you who have been watching the FOMC since the market fell following recent interest rate hikes seem to simply think that stocks will rise unconditionally if interest rates fall. However, that is a very simplistic view. In fact, lowering interest rates implies that a recession is coming, so the economy...
When there is a recession, stocks do not rise; they fall significantly, right? Why would stocks rise when an economic downturn is coming? Therefore, you need to think about these aspects from a more complex perspective. For instance, regarding the start of interest rate cuts—that is, the scenario you are currently expecting is that the FMC, or Powell, preemptively lowers rates to prevent a recession, thereby avoiding it, allowing the market to recover, and with rates already low.
However, I have repeatedly emphasized that history has never unfolded this way. The story that has been repeated throughout U.S. stock market history is that a recession always hits, a hole appears somewhere, and the economy begins to collapse; only then do they belatedly cut rates retrospectively, and eventually, the market reflects this to some extent, and the market rises afterward in line with the lowered rates.
Of course, it would be great if this time followed the ideal scenario I mentioned earlier, but ultimately, what is the reason we study history? Right, it is to predict the future and human psychology. So, we should view it as a counter-teacher. From that perspective, I hope you are aware that such risks exist.
We must continuously monitor macroeconomic conditions. That is why you mentioned that the economy has been performing well recently. Even though the economy is performing well, if the inflation rate remains at 2% and doesn't fall, there is naturally no reason to lower interest rates. So, I hope you don't think about anything too simply.
If investing that simply would work, everyone would be a millionaire in the stock market right now, right? That is why you should always think about things in a slightly more complex way. I, too, still have a long way to go; I am constantly striving. The reason I can make these moves is precisely because I am working hard.
For instance, while you read one book, I am likely to read ten. So, rather than just discussing things based on fragmentary pieces of information, I believe it is significantly important to study further and think critically about that person and my own opinions. I would like to conclude this video by saying that instead of leaving negative comments on my opinion, you would be much more helpful for your own development and progress to leave negative comments on your own. That is all for today's video. Thank you.
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