저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 1분기 풋옵션 약세 베팅을 접고 콜옵션 중심 강세 포지션으로 전환, 포트폴리오를 약 3배(5억 달러 이상) 확대했다고 분석. 상위 5개 보유 종목이 전체의 73% 이상이며 헬스케어(유나이티드헬스, 리제네론) 비중이 크고, 메타·ASML·중국 테크(JD닷컴, 알리바바)에도 콜 베팅. 버리의 가치투자 원칙(비인기 종목, 안전마진, 손절)을 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
When you hear the name Michael Bur, one word probably comes to mind. Bear. I mean, he's the legendary investor from the big short, the guy who called the 2008 crash. But the ultimate pessimist just did something that's got Wall Street completely stunned. He's totally flipped the script and made one of the most aggressive bullish bets of his entire career.
So, what does a bet like that even look like? Well, it looks like this. More than half a billion dollars. Now, to put that into perspective, just last quarter, his whole portfolio was worth around 199 million. So, in just a few months, he's nearly tripled his exposure to the market. This isn't just some minor tweak, you guys.
This is a seismic shift. In this chart right here, it lays it all out perfectly. In the first quarter, Bur was betting against the market, using put options, which, you know, make money when stocks go down. And now, all those bearish bets are gone. His portfolio is just loaded with call options which are bets that stocks are going to go way up.
He's gone from the ultimate market bear to a raging bull. So this brings us to the big question, right? Why why would the one guy who built his entire reputation on seeing disaster where no one else did suddenly bet the farm on a massive recovery? To get to the bottom of this, we first have to understand the man himself.
To really get why this bullish pivot is such a huge deal, you got to go back. You have to remember the legendary bet that made him famous in the first place. See, Bur was one of the only people who saw that the entire US housing market was a total house of cards. It was all built on these terrible loans, subprime mortgages that were packaged up and sold as if they were perfectly safe.
While literally everyone else saw a golden opportunity, he saw a ticking time bomb and he figured out how to bet against it. and his weapon of choice, something called a credit default swap. You can basically think of it as an insurance policy. Bur started paying these regular premiums to ensure mortgage bonds he didn't even own.
Now, his maximum loss was just the cost of those premiums, but his potential gain if those bonds went bust, it was massive. The guy personally made $100 million. It was a classic asymmetric bet. Very limited downside with a truly gigantic upside. And this is the kind of thinking that just sets him apart.
He didn't just see a bunch of bad loans. He understood the systemic failure. He knew the real problem wasn't the people taking the loans. It was the lenders who had completely thrown caution to the wind. That's the level of deep dive analysis he brings to the table. So, how does this contrarian brain of his translate into an actual investment strategy?
Well, it all comes down to a pretty clear playbook. I love this quote because it just gets right to the heart of his entire philosophy. He is a true value investor through and through. He goes out there and actively looks for companies and industries that everyone else has completely given up on. Convinced that somewhere in that wreckage, there's a diamond in the rough.
And his playbook, it really boils down to three core rules. First, find those unpopular roadkill stocks. Second, only invest with a margin of safety, meaning the company is so cheap that your potential downside is pretty small. He says sheer outrageous value is its own catalyst. And third, and this is so important, be disciplined.
If a stock keeps falling, he cuts his losses fast. This prevents one bad idea from sinking the whole ship. So, at the end of the day, managing risk for Bur isn't about some fancy Wall Street algorithm. It's about old-fashioned, deep, fundamental research. He calls it respectful business evaluation. He just does the hard homework that most other people are unwilling to do.
And that is where he finds his edge. Okay, so keeping that playbook in mind, let's connect the dots and see how he's using it right now. Where in the world is he seeing that sheer outrageous value today? A quick look at his top five holdings tells you a lot. I mean, they make up over 73% of his entire portfolio.
Right away, you can see some really clear themes emerging. a massive massive bet on healthcare and some names in consumer and tech that are well pretty surprising. Let's break it down. So, his single biggest bet, the new foundation of his entire strategy is the healthc care sector. After pretty much sitting on the sidelines last quarter, he's now made it the absolute core of this new bullish view.
And just look at the conviction here. Just two companies, United Health and Regeneron, now make up more than 37% of his entire fund. And notice these are all call options. He's not just hoping they'll go up a little bit. He is betting they are going to go up significantly and soon. All right. Now for what is maybe the biggest surprise of all after famously betting against big tech stocks just last quarter.
Bur has done a complete 180. He's made a huge call option bet on Meta Platforms, a company he has literally criticized in the past. This tells you he now sees some deep hidden value there. maybe in their AI moves. He's also gone big on ASML, which makes the essential gear needed to create semiconductors.
So, in other words, he's betting on the picks and shovels of the whole tech gold rush. And the reversals just keep on coming. He's also made a major pivot on Chinese tech stocks, which, as you know, have been absolutely hammered for years. I mean, you can't get any clearer than this. Last quarter, he had put options against both JD.com and Alibaba, betting they would fall further.
This quarter, he has completely flipped to call options, betting that they're going to soar. This is a huge signal that he thinks the worst is finally over for these Chinese giants and that they are now that classic roadkill value he's always looking for. So, when you put all these pieces of the puzzle together, the healthcare conviction, the tech reversal, the China pivot, what's the one big idea, what is Michael Bur really betting on here?
It really boils down to a few key things. He's making a broad bet on an economic recovery. He's strategically moving into sectors like healthcare that he thinks have big potential. And he's using his classic playbook to find what he believes are just dirt cheap stocks in tech in China. But the number one takeaway has to be his use of call options.
This isn't a patient wait andsee investment. It's an aggressive all-in wager that a significant rally is coming and it's coming fast. There's really no other way to say it. Tripling his portfolio size and flipping completely from puts to calls. This is one of the most aggressive market calls of his entire career.
He's not just dipping a toe in the water here. He's doing a cannonball into the deep end. And that leaves us with the ultimate question, doesn't it? The man who correctly predicted the biggest financial meltdown of our generation is now making an equally huge bet on a recovery. Time will tell if he's right again, but one thing is for sure. When Michael Bur makes a move this big, the world pays attention.
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