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이란-이스라엘 교전이 4일째 이어지며 협상 신호가 나왔다고 진단. 미군 공중급유기 전개가 압박 전술이며 이란이 협상 테이블로 나올 가능성 제기. 이스라엘의 추가 공격 가능성과 이란 지도부 피해를 언급. 베팅마켓에서 미-이란 핵합의 확률이 22.5%에서 45%로 상승했다고 소개. 발언 말미에 AMD가 좋다는 언급과 부동산 스타트업 홍보.
다듬은 글
Israeli military says it's continuing strikes in central Iran. Iran asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to ask Trump to press Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire. Exclusive breaking news just out on Iran. Iran is freaking out. Quote, "A battered Iran signals it wants to deescalate hostilities with Israel and negotiate." This comes after just this morning uh Russia requests that Israel stop potentially striking nuclear sensitive sites that could lead to some form of nuclear fallout.
It also comes as yesterday there were a lot of rumors that the United States was uh and sort of flight trackers that the United States was sending somewhere around 45 potential refueling aircraft uh to Europe and then towards the Middle East to potentially aid in fighter jet transitions into the region.
Mind you, fighter jets just don't have the fuel capacity to go back and forth very frequently uh in the uh Iranian or near the Iranian airspace. Uh given that you're you're typically not taking off from Iraq, which would be right next door, uh you've got a little bit more of a commute, so to speak, and and fighter jets uh need this sort of refueling.
So either this is sort of a pressure tactic of here's what's coming Iran uh or or this is some form of just deployment of strategic assets into the region to be ready for a broader escalation. I usually like to say like these very public movements are usually designed to force countries into negotiations.
Donald Trump remains optimistic that some form of deal could be struck. Uh but uh Donald Trump also sort of throws up his hands a bit and says uh but they might have to fight it out a bit more at the same time as we see those US refueling aircraft moving over. Uh this Wall Street Journal report is apparently now referring to uh Arab intermediaries who are receiving these signals.
Take a look at this. Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks to end hostilities and a resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the United States via Arab intermediaries. Uh now there was also a rumor this morning that uh Iran might be open to stopping its nuclear enrichment program which which I would be a big fan of because I do believe that Iran is a country we have to be careful of creating a nuclear weapon and then not safeguarding it.
So I'm not I'm less concerned about Iran itself using a nuclear weapon. I'm more concerned about Iran letting a nuclear weapon get into the hands of uh you know these these potential groups in Afghanistan such as the Taliban. Uh you could have uh the Houthis get their hands on it in Yemen. You could have Hezbollah get their hands on it in Lebanon.
You could potentially even have Hamas get their hands on a strategic nuclear weapon in Gaza. Uh and you know lob one over the border into Israel. These groups that are basically on on the verge of complete annihilation would love the opportunity to reset the balance of we just used the strategic nuke.
You want to see where more of those came from? Keep messing with us. It would g it would be a power gamecher for these groups and Iran would be the perfect country to enable that distribution of weaponry. And this is I think why Israel has has gotten so nervous given that we've been told for decades that Iran has a nuke.
Uh but now the IEA as well as other international bodies expecting that potentially Iran already has uh not just the yellow cake which is a precursor to uh Iranian nuclear bomb uh preparations but uh also enough ready and stored nuclear material to produce somewhere between three and 15 nuclear bombs today.
In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tran has told Arab officials that they would be open to return to the negotiating table as long as the US doesn't join the attack. Now, this is great because it really gives sort of a little bit of a bow to Donald Trump, like please, please, anything but Donald Trump, you know, coming.
And and this gives me again this reiteration that I personally think this aircraft deployment from the United States was purposefully really loud and proud. I mean, how convenient that the very night uh you know, the very next morning after the night that we see this this deployment, what do we get?
Oh, wow. All of a sudden, uh, you know, Iran is is open to talking again. Meanwhile, of course, you know, strikes have been continuing uh between the two countries. Here's actually a video of another launch from uh somebody flying on a Dubai uh bound aircraft or or leaving Dubai. Uh, and you could see launches taking off from Iran.
You could really see the different booster phases here. You're get you're getting hypersonic even. Uh, and I mean it's it's really an incredible sight to see this aircraft based on sort of the curvature of the Earth that you can see here, I would guess, is somewhere at 35 uh to 40,000 ft in the air.
Pretty remarkable. Uh, flying at 45,000 ft, you really see even more curvature. But anyway, going back to the story here, uh, but with Israeli warplanes able to fry fly freely over the capital and Iranian counterattacks inflicting minimal damage. Yeah, it is true. I mean, you're not you're not like really achieving devastating strikes against Israel, but let's be clear, you you are definitely striking Israel.
I mean, neighborhoods in Israel are getting hit, homes are getting hit in Israel. uh and it's quite frankly devastating as as people on both sides are dying. Now you have BB who argues that well we're just targeting military officials. However, there have even been apartment buildings in Tehran that have been hit.
But then again, you know, these are things that we're hearing from vice versa of both sides of uh of media. For example, there is uh there is talk that Iran struck a campus for disabled children in Israel. Uh and you know so people are showing children's desks with you know the the little bee icons over here and wheelchairs uh in destruction uh and obviously the medical facility here.
Hopefully the expectation is a lot of these people would have been in a shelter but again now their medical facility is interrupted. Of course that is the uh Israeli POV Iranians are saying very similar things that hey you're hitting women and children here with sort of potentially bombs that are missing or are indiscriminate.
point is more of these bombs keep flying and it's true more damage is being conducted to the Iranian leadership than certainly the Israeli leadership. There hasn't as far as I aware really been any kind of general that has been killed from Iranian strikes. Whereas numerous generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, nuclear scientists uh and and other chain of command individuals like the chief director of intelligence for the country have all all been killed and executed either through bombs or uh commandos.
Remember, commandos are so deep inside of Iran right now that we uh saw uh Iranian uh Israeli commanders take out Israel Gosh, I'm screwing up my names here. We saw Israeli commandos take out Iranian air defenses with drones that were smuggled into the country, enabling this Israeli air superiority.
So really Iran is in in a very tough position to where there are sort of documented leaks with the with the New York Times. Uh and I know not everybody loves the New York Times, but the New York Times had some documented leaks where Iranian officials were essentially, you know, in text message communications that were reviewed by New York Times journalists complaining about why do we have no control over our airspace?
And it really shows that Iran is at this sort of edge of potentially regime collapse. Now remember I have argued you do not want regime change or collapse. If you have either change or collapse you could have a power vacuum which means a worse regime could come in say the Taliban. You could also maybe not necessarily worse maybe equivalent right or just as bad basically.
You don't want that. You don't want the Taliban having control over these nuclear facilities. You don't want a puppet government because the people of Iran don't want a puppet government that never lasts, that always ends up getting overthrown by coup or otherwise or revolution or whatever. And you don't want an Israeli occupation because that would be vastly unpopular because it would be Gaza 2.0, right?
So all of those options are trash. The best option here is actually for Iran to be like, "All right, all right. We're done. Like we're just not going to enrich uranium. will agree to weapons inspections to nuclear facility inspections. Please stop destroy you. You win. That's basically what Iran needs to do.
And at this point, it seems like they're pretty close to that. Israeli leaders have little incentive to halt their assault, but do before doing more to destroy the nuclear sites. Is this also true that there could also very well likely now be more attacks by uh Israel uh to to further weaken the government while they still can before achieving a uh uh you know ceasefire.
The impact on nuclear facilities has been modest so far and uh talk is that it could take a long air war to get the results Israel wants. This is the other thing. A lot of these bunkered locations uh like the uh uh forom location are potentially as much as a mile and a half underground to where you are in a position where you may not actually be able to do damage where the the the deepest uh and largest reserves of uh of of enriched uranium actually sit.
This is somewhat problematic because ultimately that is Israel's goal is to not only destroy these centrifuges uh and essentially reset their ability uh to enrich uranium but then also to potentially destroy these facilities but again so deep underground it's challenging. Uh you do have let's see infographics out from Israel on uh various different strike locations right now that they're targeting.
This is very similar to what we saw yesterday. Uh more infographics out. Strikes on navigation systems against Israel. We've got strikes on production sites for components of aerial defense systems belonging to the uh Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Strikes on planetary mixers used for the production of surfacetosurface missile engines.
I mean really trying to destroy the entire supply chain here. Strikes on fuel production sites for various missiles. So these would be uh you know like kerosene uh jet fuel style uh you know rocket fuel essentially uh strikes on surfaceto-surface missile production sites again the supply chain of uh missile production.
Uh Israelis BB says that attacks will continue until the nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed. No indication he's ready to stop. I actually think this talk about potentially a ceasefire has Iran right where Israel wants them and is is potentially likely to lead to more attacks. And I think this is why this morning, just minutes ago, you know, within the last 10 minutes or so here, you actually saw uh Israel issue more evacuation warnings to regions within Thran, the capital of Iran, where you're basically telling the citizens in the region, listen, we're going to start leveling some of these areas.
You saw what we did in Gaza. GTFO right now because we're going to keep going here. Uh and and this talk about Iran potentially folding, in my opinion, exacerbates Israel's desire to bomb faster uh and and and more collectively here to basically in their POV get the job done because Iran Israel is not going to trust an Iranian ceasefire.
Israel is not going to trust IAEA weapons inspectors. they would trust their own weapons inspectors, but I highly doubt as part of a ceasefire, Iran is going to allow Israeli weapon inspectors into Iran. Who knows, maybe? Uh, and then what you'll also find is here's a Wall Street Journal uh looks like oped piece here.
This is by John Bolton, so take it for what it's worth. Iran's war against Israel took another turn for the worse as Operation Rising Lion struck Thran's nuclear weapons program, air defenses, and military leadership. Iran's retaliation has so far been uneven and ineffective. Contrary to the scareongers, World War II hasn't broken out, nor will it.
But what's next? Right now, they retain power. That's fine. Despite the outward appearance of solid authoritarianism, the regime in Thran faces widening discontent. Their opposition extends across Iran and smaller cities in the countryside where Western jour journalists congregate. Iran's economy has been uh poopy dupy for decades and Israeli strikes on oil refineries may weaken it further.
Citizen protest in 2018 to 19. Uh a heightened nationwide repression. Uh never trust your economy to medieval religious fanatics. I mean here's just basically you know an attack on the ayatollas and the regime in Iran which is not a surprise. So, you know, this broadly in addition to continued strikes does bode well for preventing this sort of nuclear escalation or the potential risk that uh we're going to see some form of uh strategic nuclear weapons deployment here.
There is also worth not mentioning this more recent uh expansion of Iran using both its military and the Iranian revolutionary guard which which are you know separate entities. Uh and so some images of more launches coming here although we have seen reports that initial launches were somewhere around 200 rockets then we went down to 100 then down to 50 then down to 40 then down to 20.
So potentially seeing fewer rockets launched. I think this is, you know, a lot of people are saying, "Oh, Iran is is basically collapsing with their ability to launch." I think this is likely because if they try to deploy 200 rockets at a time, too many of their equipment are exposed while Israel has air superiority and you see a rapid destruction uh of their launching equipment.
So, they're preferring smaller volumes volume volleys I should say uh with potentially larger munitions. This is something else that you're seeing is the potential use of hypersonics or larger bombs. And this is this is what's breaking through the Israeli air defenses uh and Iron Dome uh capabilities.
This is leading some people to say things like, "Oh, you know, Israel wants uh to see uh uh you know, some of these bombs come through so they can continue to justify their attacks against Iran." I don't know if they need any more justification, but uh here's just another rendering of Israel's bombardment inside of Thran.
Uh nothing super new there. Again, we saw that deployment of um uh you know, United States refueling tankers, but you do also have reports of fires at air bases in Israel. So, Israel is taking damage. You know, yesterday we saw research facilities struck. We saw homes and cities. Batyam was hit pretty hard.
You know, that's just south of Tel Aviv. Uh air bases are being hit. Hifa is being hit. Uh so, you know, things are getting through, but uh I think it's pretty clear right now the country that's taking the larger L so far is Iran. Uh now, presently there is talk that we have uh the Iranian air force potentially potentially rumors flying over occupied Palestine.
I somewhat doubt that potential, but I suppose it's possible. You've got uh video here of an air strike against a settlement. Uh I'll find out in just a moment exactly where this is, but let's take a look at this. We got about 14 second clip here. O yeah, again, what looks to be a direct hit on or at least right in front of potential apartment buildings here.
Sometimes though, you'll see uh air defense systems in these regions. Hard to tell. There was a building here. Let me see if it's still standing. But sometimes you see air defense systems deployed uh directly in front of I can't see it. Directly in front of uh you know apartment buildings to sort of shield them from satellite views from different angles.
Unfortunately, not ideal when when it damages um uh you know residences. This was an Iran Iranian missile missile and apparently hits the Pat Tikva settlement. So again, various locations throughout the country being hip. Uh and in the meantime, I guess that's kind of a funny thing. I like funny caption.
People there's this argument that people on social media are just sort of documenting the rain from uh either Lebanon, you've seen this, or Jordan. Uh one Houthi ballistic missile launch towards Israel intercepted successfully. also shows you, you know, Hezbollah has done nothing to help Iran here and Hamas hasn't been able to do anything and the Houthis have launched a very nominal amount of missiles towards Israel with the initial volley actually landing in Palestine, which is exactly what they didn't want to hit.
So somewhat embarrassing for the uh the the coalition that supports the Iranian regime. Uh anyway, here are more photos of damage from uh Israeli settlements and locations around Israel. Uh so we could clearly see residential buildings hit. Uh you know, vehicles here with blown out windows uh that appears to be sort of clothing that's damaged inside of a residence.
I don't know, side of another building over here. I mean, these are these are war torn regions at this point. So, uh, as far as Israeli defense updates, the latest updates are that the Israeli Air Force is locating and neutralizing trucks, uh, smuggling missiles on their way to Thran. Uh, since the morning, the Israeli Air Force has identified several trucks containing weapons, including trucks transporting surfacetoair missile launchers.
Surface to air is a SAM. Uh, this is going to be to try to set up some form of Tehranian air defense. The problem is even efforts for Thran and Iran to set up an air defense is already being taken out by Israel, which is really embarrassing for Iran and and likely is going to lead them to that negotiating table more rapidly.
Um over 50 fighter jets have recently taken part in destroying over 120 surfacetosurface missiles. This is from the Israeli Air Force. We have uh further commentary from the Israeli Air Force of uh the uh homeront command working to uh uh help clean up uh areas that have been struck. So, some some higher depth footage here of uh the Homeront Command.
Sort of this um iconic uh orange uh relief helmet. know it's uh really just unfortunate on on both ends right because there are a lot of civilians that are involved in this and I think that's why so many people are leaving um the uh capital of Iran expecting this war to continue remember Israel and it could be a Trumpian POV Israel has made it clear that they are open to keeping this going for weeks uh it's been about 4 days now Friday sat sunun we're on our fourth day right now we still don't have a negot negotiate a resolution.
But this initial talk is very good and very optimistic that uh at least there are signs that Iran is like, "All right, let's talk." Remember, Vladimir Putin and China have both expressed their interest in aiding uh the uh Iranian regime in some form of negotiation. You're also seeing betting markets currently increase the chance of a US Iranian nuclear deal this year which had risen to a low or fallen to a low of about 22.5% all the way up to about 45% at the moment.
So to me uh so far this sounds like excellent news. Donald Trump is at the G7 and uh uh there is also commentary here that an Iranian adviser to the revolutionary guard says that we are ready for long war and haven't yet made strategic use of our missile capabilities. I think this is somewhat rich for the Iranians to say, but it's also very common as part of a negotiation to say, well, we we haven't we haven't brought out the big guns yet, so you know, better negotiate while you can.
We'll see. Uh there's also talk that uh the Iranian president is saying uh to the Sultan of Om that if the United States does not restrain Israel, Tran will be forced to respond more severely. This is from the Iranian news network. Mind you, it is highly uh it has been highly threatened that Iran is willing to strike American air bases in like Iraq uh or Baghdad, which Donald Trump has said would be as well as JD Vance and others would be a horrible mistake because the then then you will draw the United States into this conflict and quite frankly right now this is just Israel versus Iran and Iran is just getting wrecked.
Uh again, not saying there isn't damage coming to the Israeli side, but let's be clear, who's winning right now. Uh so that gives us the latest on the Iranian conflict. And honestly, it is the first day that I feel like I'm happy to report that it seems like things are breaking uh in the favor of peace rather than continued warfare.
So So I'm happy to be able to report uh at least that impression at this moment. Hopefully we don't get any kind of further deescalation. On top of that, AMD has just broken out of the Meet Kevin line and it is kicking butt. What else is kicking butt? House hack. Make sure to diversify to real estate with my real estate startup, House Hack.
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