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In the studios today, of course I have joy with me, my colleague and I also have Mr. Vijay Kedia. Mr. Kedia, you can bring a smile on people's faces at any time, so today I am very glad that you are in our studio today and you have seen so many ups and downs in this market amidst political uncertainty, how do you see today's results and the market, how do you see today 's results and the market, so what happened sir, sometimes you felt like crying on yourself, sometimes on the situation, it's okay, all this keeps happening, as it is, but this, of course, is a big surprise because the BJP not getting a majority is a big turning point, if they had got a majority, everything was set, no matter how many seats they got after that, everything was set, this is the PM, this is the HM, this is the FM, it is not known yet what the figures will be or not because we know that the people who are associated with them are very ethical people, the whole of India knows this, so what will happen to them, how will their stance change?
It is a little difficult that it will change, so of course it is visible in the index, the way the index was down by 6000 points at one time, I saw it on the way back, if you talk about Nifty, Sensex, Dow is currently at 4300, 4200 points, but of recovery from late, there is an atmosphere of uncertainty, this should be understood right now, regarding this, who are the people, what will happen, this is what I understood and Sir, just from a policy perspective, what changes can come on the basis of the numbers and data that we are seeing till today, which are those one or two sectors where you will keep an eye, not from a concern perspective, look at my policy, understand that the policy of India's growth is going to remain the same, I do not think that there will be any major change in it, no matter which government comes, see, one thing people forget, we also saw Devi Gowda Saheb becoming the Prime Minister, we have seen his government even then, and Gujral Saheb also once I read somewhere overnight that he was called at 2:30 am and told that he has to take oath as Prime Minister in the morning.
This happens in politics, and even after that, the market had risen. So, the market is moving in its own stream, the primary trend, I think there will be no change in it, that trend will continue. But small things can happen here and there, some sectors may get priority, some sectors may not get priority, and some changes can happen in taxation, so all these small things make the stock market worried.
This is the job of the stock market, this worrying is in the blood of the stock market. So, if you look at the results of 2004 and 2009, then 2009 I would count because then you had the second term of the same government and the markets had actually changed that versus the exit polls, but in 2004, if I look at it and just the Wisdom of Hind Site 4 and 14 2004 Okay, yes, when you felt that after India Shining, Vajpayee government would come to power, no, I am comparing it to that for the simple reason that there was a disaster, but in hindsight, the markets did very well, people made money, the economy did well, do you think that some of that wisdom will come, brother, this is just a matter of one election, India's story is much bigger than this, that's what I am saying, I also feel that we have seen all kinds of people forming the government and becoming PM and FM, even after that a caravan has been going on, so it seems as if India is on an autonomous mode, whoever comes to power, even if no one does anything stupid, still this direction is going to move, so what you are telling about that time, then I probably remember that the Communist Party also had support in the government that was formed, perhaps the Communist Party also had support in it.
The CPI was also in the market, the Sensex was down by 9900 points. That day we were roaming around Dalal Street with a microphone. It's a very old story, but even after that we have seen, see how much progress has been made. You used to roam around Dalal Street with a microphone at that time. Today you are sitting here and giving an interview, this is India.
I don't know too much about progress, but a good and useful thing. Now Vijay ji, what should an investor do? The person who is watching you wants advice from you. Should he buy something today and hold it? For how many days? Which sector should he look at? Look, my belief is that if you are a long term investor, then do not base your action on today or tomorrow.
You can never do long term work by looking at the index. Understand a primary trend by looking at the daily index. If you are a long term investor, then try to understand the primary trend, what is the primary trend of the country, the primary trend of the private economy, whether the primary trend of the economy is up, up, up and up only.
So, when should you buy today or tomorrow, whether to buy expensive at 10 or cheap at 10, it depends on your mental strength. I always say that mental strength is more important than money in the share market. Your mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity. Today you buy and understand that the market is in trouble, there is a problem of 2000 points, you will not be able to sleep at night, you will go and fight at home, you should better avoid it, if you buy it at the bottom then your name will not come in the Guinness Book of Records that I bought it at the bottom, you will have to tell people that it was 0, see, I bought it at 40, now it is of 8, you will get away even after selling it at 46, they do not have that much value, those who are mature investors, take rest and see for a day or two and be a little careful, what is happening and by 4:30 in the evening it will become clear, the trend will become clear, buy it at a higher price of 10, even then there will be no problem, if you want peace then you will have to keep an eye on more and sir, which pockets will you keep an eye on, do you like your pocket, I mean ask about the pocket in which money gets filled, that pocket You are not, look what I feel, the trend that was going on earlier too, brother, understand the trend that was going on before the elections, if you look at the defense shares, the PSC defense shares are expensive, they are very expensive today, they have corrected a little, this correction will continue, now such high prices run in a euphoria, just like yesterday, everyone was celebrating a rave party, now there is a hangover of that, brother, come here, now all that is happening in reverse, so it is very important to adjust it immediately, I feel like the market finds some excuse or the other, they make some event or the other an excuse, and this is such a big event, the market was not afraid of small events, that this happened, that happened, and sometimes this happened with VIX, sometimes with monsoon, sometimes with Forex, the market had stopped being afraid of everything, they thought what will happen, now this big event has come, so this is an excuse for the market to correct, and I like this that if your long term trend is up and the market If it falls in between, then there is an opportunity for those who missed it to come in.
So, these overvalued sectors that you are saying are energy and defence, the two sectors that you mentioned, you will put PSSU also in the same basket, slightly overvalued, a little correction and there is a need for that space also as per your opinion, so it is a good thing, like the defence stocks were very expensive, they are correcting now, as this will continue, you will have to look at the individual stocks within it, like public sector banks, these were very cheap, yesterday they saw a big jump, today OMCs are very cheap, yesterday they saw a big jump, today they are correcting, so you will have to search for these in your pocket, there are two- three such PSUs, defence for example, let's talk about HL and Kochi Shipyard, they have been beaten so badly today, that means it's over, but if you look at their numbers, their results are not that the results were bad, their order book is quite good, healthy pipeline is good, a question is good, you know Lot of the stocks are now fully in the sense of good bets for investors.
Well, some of these are on your list. No, they are not on my list right now because I still find them a bit expensive. Maybe I am slow in judging them and I do n't have the money to invest new money. Do n't laugh, I am telling you the truth. No, no, just to repeat, Vijay Gadiya ji is saying that I do n't have the money to invest now, so I just thought, I will go and see M2M today.
I will go and see what happens. Today it is already in the red, otherwise, I am in serious matters. There are three or four such ideas on which people should pay attention. Today everyone is talking about consumption because it has gone up today, but where will we look at consumption in mid-caps? No, my focus is mostly on mid-caps.
Yes, you know what I think. Whichever government comes, I believe that the infrastructure story in India will change in the next 10 years. Whether it is the story of the year or the story of manufacturing, I always understand one thing which I think, with my limited intellect, I think where can India suffer a loss, India can suffer a loss if that thing does not improve in employment generation, if India is not able to generate employment, I read somewhere that perhaps we need one crore jobs every year, if this employment cannot be generated then our demographic dividend, which we talk about, can be in danger, so how will it come, it can come from manufacturing, so saying this I feel that whether it is manufacturing or infrastructure and such capital goods, what about rural themes because now whichever government will come, they have now realized that you have to talk about rural India, fertilizer, two wheelers, now we have seen a little bit in FMCG, you know view, are you liking all these themes, no, I do not have any special focus on them, my focus on them is very limited, so my attention is like It is in infrastructure, in companies like telecom equipment because it is meant to keep going, there is never a recession in it, you will keep talking, today you will talk more, it is dead, it has sunk, this has fallen, that has fallen, so the story that you consume, whatever consumption, whether a government is coming or not, or who is the FM or who is the PM, that is the best story which is always going to keep going, right now there is one pocket which is almost consensus buy, everyone in the market is talking about this, private sector banks which are our frontline banks, ICICI, ADFC Access, read all the reports, then two out of these three names are getting featured, according to you, what kind of a sector segment is this and their valuations, now when we have seen a little bit of already, they seem more attractive, not to you, but to me personally, I do not have much study in them, but the public sector banks which were big yesterday at 12, 12, 15, today they are They have fallen back, I feel that there is more opportunity in them, that they too should have opportunity or if not more then at least equal opportunity, it is possible that they too may do well, but my focus is not on them, like you have mentioned Kotak or HDFC and not these, the public sector banks, the small banks like Canara Bank are doing well, Bank of Baroda is doing well, Bank of Maharashtra has done well, all these banks are doing well, their numbers have also come good and they are reporting double digit credit growth in future also, these people should do well, okay, there is a trend of premiumization, that whatever is being spent is being done on the higher end, you think that will continue, no matter which government comes, you said that there are some current themes and premium mine is a theme in it which will continue because there is an aspirational Indian, no matter what, they want to buy more premium things, so that is a trend, I feel that.
One should stay because as the income increases, as the economy grows, income also increases, so in the same way, the demand for aspirational shares obviously increases. There is a saying that when the per capita income goes above Rs. 1000 or Rs. 2500, then the consumption which has faced some pain in the pharma chemical sector, do you see a turnaround in it now, how far will it go?
I am not much focused on them, I only have one share in pharma, I do not understand that much. Those big ones, sometimes AE, sometimes FDI, sometimes US FD, what all happens in them, so you stay away, so I stay away from them, but this is an interesting observation Tamanna, because even after being such a big investor, if they are not able to understand the things, they stay away from them, doubt I doubt I am not able to understand, but I thank I get the point that you know how much growth will happen in that, it is not clear in pharma companies.
And they do n't perform well either. And another thing, Tamana, do you have limited funds? I said somewhere, you get protein from eating fish. I get protein from eating ladyfinger. So, I ate my ladyfinger. You are happy, I am also happy. It is not necessary for me to work in every sector. I am not running any fund.
I am not an advisor, I don't want to do that. Whatever I understand, whatever I understand a little better, I will work more on that. Whatever I don't understand, I will avoid it. So, I want your view on One More Pocket Real Estate because these are their stocks. Now, how much froth is there, how much real is there these days.
And I think in the next 48 hours, we will hear a lot of the word 'froth' because suddenly everyone is seeing froth. Which was looking very good till yesterday, today it has started to look frothy. But okay, what is your view on the real estate sector, the way it has grown and if you look at all its results, then all of them are running on pre-sales value.
You know, whose The bookings have been done, the amount of bookings that have been done, do you think there might be a slight correction there or it is a long 10 year story, personally I feel there is interest in it, the kind of bookings that have been done, mainly the big builders, the builders of cities like Bombay, you see, ₹1 lakh square feet, ₹1 lakh square feet, this euphoria has been created, seeing that, the price of square feet which was ₹5000 has also become 35000, where it was 5000, it has become 15000 square feet, for example, it completely interests me, it is not that the one which is in Malab Hill will be in Top Hill, there is definitely a hill in both, but the feel of the rest of the two is different, so I definitely feel interest in real estate in that sector, I don't know how long it will last, I don't have any investment, mostly you invest in mid caps which become large caps, so tell us, do you see the same kind of interest in mid caps currently Opportunities have started to appear, especially after today's deep correction.
Do you think that opportunities will slowly appear in midcaps, maybe not in a week or two, but in small caps. First of all, understand that this trend is going to continue for 10-20 years. The way new retailers are coming, there are 15 crore demat accounts, the way this is coming worth Rs 200 crore per month.
And the inclination of people, of course, remains towards small caps and mid caps. So, its trend is going to remain the same. It will keep changing. There will be ups and downs within it. It will keep getting frothy, will keep getting euphoric, will keep getting manipulated as well. After that, some other shares will move within it.
And as far as the question is whether there is value in them, it depends on whether mid caps mean very big stocks, very large number of shares, very large number of companies. If we are talking about them, then a generic answer should not be that yes, they look good. What about the trading that was happening in futures and options, retail participants are also coming in, that will continue, according to you it will continue because what happens is that the bad habit or addiction becomes very difficult to get out of it, one is addicted and like those are not sin shares, they are called sin shares like those with alcohol or cigarettes, so this is also an app, you are doing thaka thaka thaka, you are doing thaka thaka, so it is going to be the word of the ji, this is going to continue, like Junglee Rummy is not there, there is an ad, Junglee Rummy and Shahri Billi and what else, similarly this game of futures and options is what we are playing, this will continue and one thing I understood, Silver Line, one thing I thought today, as I am always against them, that yes, like the last song I wrote, whatever I earn in that year, I lose that much in a day's puff, I released the song a day ago, it happened coincidentally today, but one thing I feel It is that unless people go through this phase, unless people go through the rule of futures and options, they will not become true gold.
They all have that dream that I will get money from this, so trial by fire, okay, you talked about the song, now we cannot leave you without a song, a poem, now people need some inspiration from you, Vijay ji, we are investors, see, all this will continue like this, brother, how many times have elections come, how many times have futures come, how many times has forex come, how many times has monsoon come, has failed, recession has come, this has come, that has come, still where are we standing, so the simple one thing or the investment guru mantra here is that become an investor, definitely try futures and options here, once or twice, if you fail, then do not get addicted to it and simply come for long term investing and the golden way to make money, the best way in the stock market, this is we long term investors have won today, no matter what else happens, win or lose, long term investors will keep winning, thank you very much Vijay ji for talking to us. Khedia in our studios you know putting that message into perspective
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