저자: EdwardYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기적으로 악재에 따른 하락 가능성이 있으나, 그 하락을 매수 기회로 보고 포트폴리오를 유지하라는 입장이다. [AI 산업·앤트로픽 IPO] 앤트로픽은 AI 생태계에서 핵심적인 존재로 평가되며, 2조 달러 규모의 IPO가 성공할 것으로 전망한다. 월가가 스페이스X 상장을 성공적으로 이끌었던 것처럼 앤트로픽 상장도 성공할 것이며, 이를 통해 분기마다 AI 사업 상황을 주요 기업 실적으로 확인할 수 있게 된다고 보았다. 하이퍼스케일러들의 AI 매출과 클라우드 매출이 매우 높은 수준이라고 언급했다. AI는 대규모 장기 호황의 초기 단계로, 더 많은 데이터를 더 싸고 빠르게 처리할 수 있게 해 스스로 지속되는 산업이 될 것이라고 평가했다. [정치 이벤트·투자 전략] 미 중간선거와 이스라엘 선거 결과에 따라 포트폴리오를 조정하는 것은 일반적으로 나쁜 아이디어이며, 트레이더가 아닌 이상 완전 투자를 유지하라고 조언했다. 워싱턴의 헤드라인보다 기업 이익이 시장을 움직인다고 강조했다. 중간선거 결과 하원은 민주당이 가져갈 가능성이 높고 상원도 가능성이 있으나 확실하지 않다고 봤으며, 정치는 더 양극화되겠지만 경제는 버틸 것이라고 전망했다. [유가·글로벌 증시 단기 전망] 3월 이후 유가 상승으로 위험회피 심리가 확산되었고, 현재 브렌트유는 115달러 수준이다. 향후 몇 주간 미국 시장과 글로벌 시장 모두 악재로 인해 하락할 가능성이 명확하다고 봤다. 미국·이란·이스라엘 간 전쟁이 재격화되면 유가가 단기간 120달러 이상으로 오를 수 있으며, 이란 경제는 매우 나쁜 상황이라 추가 전투는 군사력을 약화시키겠지만 주식시장은 나쁘게 반응할 것이라고 봤다. 다만 이 하락을 매수 기회로 보고 있다. [연준] 이번 주 FOMC에서 금리는 동결될 가능성이 높지만, 케빈 워시 연준 의장이 매우 매파적 입장을 보여 12월 25~50bp 인상을 시사할 수 있다고 전망했다. [투자 결론] 중간선거 등 이벤트 전후로 매도보다는 현금이 있다면 주식 매수 기회를 살펴볼 만하다고 조언했다. 이벤트 직전에 자산을 매도하지 말고 상황을 지켜보라고 권고했다.
다듬은 글
Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, is with us this morning. Thank you very much for joining us, Mr. Yardeni. It's always nice to talk to you. Should we start by talking about Anthropic since that's the main topic right now? Now, here's the catch, right? They want to raise $2 trillion. The world wonders if this AI debt is accumulating, even though they are at the forefront of the most exciting breakthroughs in this field.
How do you view this company and this potential IPO? Well, obviously Anthropic is vital to the entire AI ecosystem. And the entire industry seems to have a very bright future. The question, of course, is how will individual companies and players feel? I think Anthropic's IPO will be very successful.
Wall Street managed to launch SpaceX very successfully. I think they will do the same with Anthropic, and that will mean that we will see what is happening in the AI business every quarter from one of the most important players. Of course, there are other important players, such as hyperscalers. These are public companies, and we know that their AI revenues, their cloud computing revenues, have been very high.
So, it's an interesting industry. It is in the early stages of a major long-term boom in terms of its ability to allow us to process much more data cheaper and faster. And you know what? We will have even more data to process. So, it will be self-sustaining, and I think overall it will be an important business for all of us.
Ede Yardeni, and I'm trying to ask, we've been talking to you in recent weeks, and we've been asking you about the implications of the elections, the midterm elections, and the elections in Israel. And we're actually getting close to the crucial moment , right? Israel will know the results in a few days.
And in the US, you see quite a few statements made by President Donald Trump in the run-up to this election. What is your opinion on how investors should position themselves in the face of the outcomes of these two important events? Yes, I think it's worth staying fully invested. I think that reviewing a portfolio based on political events is usually a bad idea unless you are a trader and have strong beliefs about how the election will end and want to bet on it.
Eh, but um, the thing I've noticed over the years is how well the U.S. economy and our stock market are doing, despite Washington. Well, I think a lot of investors are too concerned with the headlines coming out of Washington, what the Fed is doing, what the Treasury is doing. Uh, and sometimes they forget that the market is driven by the profits of companies that are constantly striving to, uh, increase their revenues, and they are able to do so in the long term.
Every now and then we have a recession, which is a step backwards, but it also turns out to be a buying opportunity, uh, for investors. So I, I would, uh, advise just, uh, sticking with your portfolio that you have. Uh, we'll survive the election, and, uh, from what I understand, uh, the House of Representatives will probably go to the Democrats, uh, the Senate, maybe too, but it's not such a certain development.
And I think that will mean that our politics, uh, which have been very partisan and divided, uh, will be even more partisan and divided, but our economy will weather it. Yes, I mean for stock markets around the world. Well, March has arrived, or rather, when March arrived and oil prices rose, the natural reaction for most markets was risk aversion.
At this time, or as we speak, Brent oil prices are still at 115. Well, now there are theories that maybe they are raised ahead of the US election, it hurts the US, etc. Many different opinions. My question to you is: until oil prices drop, is it wise to be cautious about investing in most stocks simply because they react to inflation, macroeconomics, etc., and until they cool down, er, be prudent?
Well, I, I really think that over the next few weeks we have a clear potential for the market to fall on bad news. Do you mean the US markets? US markets. OK. OK. And both global and global and global markets as well, because I, I think some of the issues are certainly global in nature, and of course a new escalation of the war between the US, Iran, the US, Israel and Iran could well push oil prices above 120 for a short period of time.
I think Iran's economy is in very bad shape, and I think another round of fighting would weaken Iran's military capabilities, but even so, stock markets around the world are likely to react badly, but I would actually view this as a buying opportunity. The Federal Reserve is meeting this week and is likely to leave rates unchanged, but Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could take an extremely hawkish stance, hinting at a hike of at least 25 and possibly 50 basis points in December.
So I think we have several events coming up, including the midterm elections, that could create buying opportunities. I wouldn't necessarily sell assets on the eve of them. I would see how they go, but if you have the cash and are interested in buying stocks, a good opportunity may be ahead. Dr. Yardeni, thank you very much for your time. It was nice talking to you. I'm waiting for the next conversation.
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