저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
선거 불확실성 속 시장 급락 국면에서 Kedia는 인도 성장 정책 기조는 정부와 무관하게 유지되므로 장기 추세는 살아있다고 봄. 방산·에너지 섹터는 과열 후 조정 중이며 공기업 은행, 프리미엄 소비, 인프라·통신장비, 부동산 등에 관심 표명. 중소형주는 10~20년 추세로 유지된다고 하나 개별 종목 판단은 유보. 투자자에게는 단기 매매보다 장기 추세 관점과 심리적 감내력을 강조.
다듬은 글
In the studio today, of course, I have joy with me, my colleague, and I also have Mr. Vijay Kedia. Mr. Kedia, you can bring a smile to people's faces at any time, so today I am very glad you are in our studio. You have seen so many ups and downs in this market amid political uncertainty. How do you see today's results and the market? So what happened, sir? Sometimes you feel like crying for yourself, sometimes for the situation. It's okay, all this keeps happening as it is. But this is, of course, a big surprise, because the BJP not getting a majority is a big turning point. If they had got a majority, everything was set. No matter how many seats they got after that, everything was set: this is the PM, this is the HM, this is the FM. It is not yet known what the figures will be, because we know the people associated with them are very ethical people, and all of India knows this. So what will happen to them, and how will their stance change?
It will be a little difficult to say that it will change. Of course, it is visible in the index. The way the index was down by 6,000 points at one time, I saw it on the way back. If you talk about Nifty and Sensex, the Dow is currently at 4,300, 4,200 points, but there has been a recovery from the lows. There is an atmosphere of uncertainty, and this should be understood right now. Regarding who the people are and what will happen, this is what I understood. Sir, just from a policy perspective, what changes can come on the basis of the numbers and data we are seeing till today? Which one or two sectors will you keep an eye on? Not from a concern perspective, but look at my policy: understand that the policy of India's growth is going to remain the same. I do not think there will be any major change in it, no matter which government comes. One thing people forget: we also saw Deve Gowda Saheb become Prime Minister, and we saw his government then. Gujral Saheb too, I once read somewhere, was called at 2:30 am and told that he had to take the oath as Prime Minister in the morning.
This happens in politics, and even after that, the market rose. So the market is moving in its own stream, and the primary trend, I think, will not change; that trend will continue. But small things can happen here and there. Some sectors may get priority, some may not, and some changes can happen in taxation. All these small things make the stock market worried.
Worrying is the job of the stock market; it is in the blood of the stock market. If you look at the results of 2004 and 2009, I would count 2009, because then you had the second term of the same government, and the markets actually changed versus the exit polls. But in 2004, in hindsight, the markets did very well, people made money, and the economy did well. Do you think some of that wisdom will come? Brother, this is just a matter of one election. India's story is much bigger than this. That's what I am saying. I also feel that we have seen all kinds of people form governments and become PM and FM, and even after that a caravan has kept going. So it seems India is on an autonomous mode. Whoever comes to power, even if no one does anything stupid, this direction is still going to move. As for that time, I probably remember that the Communist Party also had support in the government that was formed.
The CPI was also in the market. The Sensex was down by 9,900 points. That day we were roaming around Dalal Street with a microphone. It's a very old story, but even after that we have seen how much progress has been made. You used to roam around Dalal Street with a microphone at that time, and today you are sitting here giving an interview. This is India.
I don't know too much about progress, but it's a good and useful thing. Now, Vijay ji, what should an investor do? The person watching you wants advice from you. Should he buy something today and hold it? For how many days? Which sector should he look at? Look, my belief is that if you are a long-term investor, do not base your action on today or tomorrow. You can never do long-term work by looking at the index. Understand the primary trend by looking at the daily index. If you are a long-term investor, try to understand the primary trend: what is the primary trend of the country, the primary trend of the private economy, whether the economy is going up, up, up, and only up.
So when should you buy, today or tomorrow? Whether to buy expensive at 10 or cheap at 10 depends on your mental strength. I always say that mental strength is more important than money in the share market. Your mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity. If you buy today and the market is in trouble, with a 2,000-point fall, you will not be able to sleep at night, you will go home and fight, so you should better avoid it. If you buy at the bottom, your name will not come in the Guinness Book of Records for buying at the bottom; you will have to tell people, "I bought it at 40, now it's at 8," and you will get away even after selling at 46, because they do not have that much value. Mature investors take a rest, watch for a day or two, and be a little careful about what is happening. By 4:30 in the evening it will become clear, the trend will become clear. Buy at a higher price of 10, and even then there will be no problem. If you want peace, you will have to keep an eye on more.
And sir, which pockets will you keep an eye on? Do you like your pocket? I mean, ask about the pocket where money gets filled. That pocket, you are not. Look at what I feel. The trend that was going on earlier too, brother: understand the trend that was going on before the elections. If you look at the defence shares, the PSU defence shares are expensive. They are very expensive today. They have corrected a little, and this correction will continue. Such high prices run on euphoria. Just like yesterday, everyone was celebrating a rave party, and now there is a hangover. Brother, come here, now all that is happening in reverse. So it is very important to adjust immediately. I feel the market finds some excuse or other. They make some event an excuse, and this is such a big event. The market was not afraid of small events, that this happened, that happened. Sometimes it was VIX, sometimes monsoon, sometimes forex. The market had stopped being afraid of everything; they thought, what will happen? Now this big event has come, so this is an excuse for the market to correct. And I like this: if your long-term trend is up and the market falls in between, there is an opportunity for those who missed it to come in.
So these overvalued sectors you are talking about are energy and defence, the two sectors you mentioned. You would put PSU also in the same basket, slightly overvalued, a little correction, and that space also needs it according to your opinion? So it is a good thing. Like the defence stocks were very expensive, they are correcting now, and this will continue. You will have to look at individual stocks within it. Like public sector banks: these were very cheap, yesterday they saw a big jump. OMCs are very cheap; yesterday they saw a big jump, today they are correcting. So you will have to search for these in your pocket. There are two or three such PSUs. Defence, for example: let's talk about HAL and Cochin Shipyard. They have been beaten so badly today, which means it's over. But if you look at their numbers, their results are not bad. Their order book is quite good, the healthy pipeline is good. A question is good. You know, a lot of the stocks are now fully in the sense of good bets for investors.
Well, some of these are on your list. No, they are not on my list right now, because I still find them a bit expensive. Maybe I am slow in judging them, and I don't have the money to invest new money. Don't laugh, I am telling you the truth. No, no, just to repeat, Vijay Kedia ji is saying that I don't have the money to invest now, so I just thought, I will go and see M2M today. I will go and see what happens. Today it is already in the red; otherwise, I am in serious matters. There are three or four such ideas on which people should pay attention. Today everyone is talking about consumption because it has gone up today, but where will we look at consumption in mid-caps? No, my focus is mostly on mid-caps.
Yes, you know what I think. Whichever government comes, I believe the infrastructure story in India will change in the next 10 years. Whether it is the story of the year or the story of manufacturing, I always understand one thing, which I think, with my limited intellect, is where India can suffer a loss. India can suffer a loss if employment generation does not improve, if India is not able to generate employment. I read somewhere that perhaps we need one crore jobs every year. If this employment cannot be generated, our demographic dividend, which we talk about, can be in danger. So how will it come? It can come from manufacturing. So, saying this, I feel that whether it is manufacturing or infrastructure and such capital goods, and what about rural themes? Because now whichever government comes, they have realized that you have to talk about rural India: fertilizer, two-wheelers. Now we have seen a little bit in FMCG. You know, view, are you liking all these themes? No, I do not have any special focus on them; my focus on them is very limited. My attention is on infrastructure, on companies like telecom equipment, because it is meant to keep going. There is never a recession in it. You will keep talking; today you will talk more about this sector being dead, this one having sunk, that one having fallen. So the story is consumption, whatever consumption, whether a government is coming or not, or who is the FM or the PM. That is the best story, which is always going to keep going.
Right now there is one pocket which is almost a consensus buy, and everyone in the market is talking about it: private sector banks, which are our frontline banks, ICICI, HDFC, Axis. Read all the reports, and two out of these three names are getting featured. According to you, what kind of a sector segment is this, and what are their valuations? Now that we have seen a little bit of a rally already, they seem more attractive, not to you, but to me personally. I do not have much study on them. But the public sector banks, which were big yesterday at 12, 12, 15, today they have fallen back. I feel there is more opportunity in them, that they too should have an opportunity, or if not more, at least equal opportunity. It is possible they too may do well, but my focus is not on them. Like you have mentioned Kotak or HDFC, and not these: the public sector banks, the small banks like Canara Bank, are doing well. Bank of Baroda is doing well, Bank of Maharashtra has done well. All these banks are doing well, their numbers have also come good, and they are reporting double-digit credit growth going forward. These should do well. Okay, there is a trend of premiumization, that whatever is being spent is being spent at the higher end. You think that will continue, no matter which government comes?
You said there are some current themes, and premium is a theme in it which will continue, because there is an aspirational Indian who, no matter what, wants to buy more premium things. So that is a trend, I feel. One should stay with it, because as income increases, as the economy grows, income also increases. In the same way, demand for aspirational shares obviously increases. There is a saying that when per capita income goes above Rs 1,000 or Rs 2,500, consumption rises. In the pharma and chemical sector, which has faced some pain, do you see a turnaround now? How far will it go?
I am not much focused on them. I only have one share in pharma, and I don't understand it that much. Those big ones, sometimes ANDA, sometimes FDA, sometimes US FDA, what all happens in them. So you stay away, and I stay away from them. But this is an interesting observation, Tamanna, because even after being such a big investor, if they are not able to understand things, they stay away from them. I doubt I am able to understand, but I think I get the point that you know how much growth will happen in that. It is not clear in pharma companies, and they don't perform well either. Another thing, Tamanna, do you have limited funds? I said somewhere, you get protein from eating fish; I get protein from eating ladyfinger. So I ate my ladyfinger. You are happy, I am also happy. It is not necessary for me to work in every sector. I am not running any fund. I am not an advisor, and I don't want to do that. Whatever I understand, and whatever I understand a little better, I will work more on that. Whatever I don't understand, I will avoid. So I want your view on one more pocket, real estate, because these are their stocks. How much froth is there, and how much real is there these days?
실적 대비 부동산 과열 우려
다음 48시간 안에 '거품(froth)'이라는 말을 많이 듣게 될 겁니다. 어제까지 아주 좋아 보이던 것이 오늘은 갑자기 거품처럼 보이기 시작했거든요. 그럼 부동산 섹터는 어떻게 보시나요? 지금까지 성장해 온 방식과 실적을 보면 대부분 선분양 가치로 돌아가고 있습니다. 분양 예약이 얼마나 들어왔는지를 보면, 약간의 조정이 있을 수도 있겠습니다. 아니면 10년짜리 긴 이야기일까요?
개인적으로는 관심이 간다고 봅니다. 특히 큰 건설사들, 뭄바이 같은 대도시의 건설사들이 그렇습니다. 평당 가격이 5,000에서 3만 5,000까지 오르고, 다른 곳은 5,000에서 1만 5,000으로 뛰는 걸 보면 열기가 만들어진 것이죠. 이 부분이 저는 정말 흥미롭습니다. 말라바르 힐과 탑 힐이 똑같지는 않지만, 두 곳 모두 언덕이라는 점에서 그 분위기가 다르다고 느낍니다. 그래서 이 섹터의 부동산에는 분명 관심이 갑니다. 얼마나 갈지는 모르겠습니다. 저는 개인적으로 투자한 게 없습니다.
중형주의 기회와 장기 전망
보통 중형주에 투자하셨다가 대형주가 되는 경우가 많죠. 그럼 지금 중형주에도 같은 관심이 보이시나요? 오늘 깊은 조정이 나오면서 기회가 나타나기 시작했다고 보는데요, 1~2주 안이 아니더라도 중형주, 그리고 소형주에서 기회가 천천히 나타날까요?
우선 이 흐름은 앞으로 10~20년 동안 계속될 겁니다. 신규 개인투자자가 계속 들어오고 있고, 증권계좌가 1억 5,000만 개나 있고, 매달 2조 루피씩 들어오고 있어요. 사람들의 관심은 당연히 소형주와 중형주로 향할 수밖에 없습니다. 그러니 이 흐름은 그대로 이어질 겁니다. 계속 바뀌고, 그 안에서 오르내림도 있을 겁니다. 거품이 끼고, 과열되고, 조작도 있을 거예요. 그 뒤에는 또 다른 종목들이 그 안에서 움직이겠죠.
그 종목들에 가치가 있느냐는 질문에 대해서는, 중형주가 아주 큰 종목, 아주 많은 주식, 아주 많은 기업을 뜻하는 것인지부터 따져봐야 합니다. 그걸 말하는 거라면, "좋아 보인다"는 식의 뭉뚱그린 답은 맞지 않습니다.
선물·옵션 거래와 장기투자
선물·옵션 거래에 개인 투자자들도 들어오고 있는데, 이것도 계속될까요? 나쁜 습관이나 중독은 빠져나오기가 아주 어렵거든요. 사람들이 중독되는 건 술이나 담배처럼 죄악주라고 부르는 종목과 비슷합니다. 이것도 앱 하나로 '탁탁탁' 하고 거래하는 거죠. 그러니 계속 이어질 겁니다. 정글 러미 광고처럼, 샤흐리 빌리 같은 것처럼, 선물·옵션이라는 이 게임을 우리가 하고 있는 거고요, 이건 계속될 겁니다.
그리고 한 가지 깨달은 게 있습니다. 제가 항상 반대해 왔지만, 제가 1년 동안 번 돈을 하루 만에 날리기도 했습니다. 얼마 전 발표한 노래 가사처럼요. 오늘 우연히 그런 일이 일어났네요. 그런데 사람들이 이 단계를 겪지 않으면, 즉 선물·옵션의 규칙을 직접 겪어 보지 않으면 진짜 금을 얻을 수 없다고 생각합니다. 다들 이걸로 돈을 벌겠다는 꿈을 갖고 있죠. 그러니 불 속에서 단련되는 시련을 겪어야 합니다.
투자자들에게 전하는 한마디
노래 얘기를 하셨으니, 이제 시나 노래 없이 보내드릴 수는 없겠죠. 사람들은 지금 당신에게서 영감을 얻고 싶어 합니다. 비제이 님, 우리는 투자자입니다. 형제여, 이 모든 것은 계속 이렇게 흘러갑니다. 선거는 몇 번이나 왔고, 선물은 몇 번이나 왔고, 외환은 몇 번이나 왔고, 몬순은 몇 번이나 왔습니까? 실패도 있었고, 경기침체도 왔고, 이것도 왔고, 저것도 왔죠. 그럼에도 지금 우리는 어디에 서 있습니까? 그러니 간단한 한 가지, 투자의 대가들의 만트라는 이겁니다. 투자자가 되세요. 선물·옵션도 한두 번쯤은 꼭 해 보세요. 실패하더라도 거기에 중독되지 말고, 그냥 장기투자로 돌아오세요. 돈을 버는 황금 같은 방법, 주식시장에서 가장 좋은 방법은 바로 이겁니다. 우리 장기투자자들은 오늘도 이겼고, 무슨 일이 일어나든 이기거나 지거나 장기투자자들은 계속 이길 겁니다. 스튜디오에서 이 메시지를 짚어 주신 비제이 케디아 님, 감사합니다.
Comments 0