저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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차마스 팔리하피티야가 과거 비트코인 반감기 이후 가격 패턴을 분석해, 2024년 반감기 이후 12~18개월 내 비트코인이 크게 오를 수 있다고 주장. 현물 ETF 도입이 자금 유입을 촉진할 것으로 봄. 단, 코비드 시기 강세장은 재현되기 어렵다며 과도한 기대는 경계. 암호화폐 규제와 정치적 영향력에 대한 견해도 언급.
다듬은 글
what if we are going to see Bitcoin at half a million by the end of next year that's the thesis of shamat Pia a huge investors of the Silicon Valley and it will be interesting to analyze his stasis and see how we can apply that to manage our portfolio the best way possible and at the end of the day get more enough first thing first make sure to follow shama on Twitter is really active and push content on the timeline all the time it was the early investors in Facebook and manages billions with social capital and also co-host the Allin podcast in the Allin podcast he share his analysis from bitcoin price action past Hing since we're in the don't trust anybody and have your own sovereignty and we're in libertarian moment let's go to our crypto correspondent it's crypto corner with Shaman up it's part of my production company I'm now doing crypto corner with cha that be you are sitting at the table of like people worth multiple billions easily next week's called open I thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons one is because we just had the having at the end of April when this happen the having is where just for folks that don't know the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and money and when you solve it you get rewarded and with theing the supply of bit Bitcoin is getting cut by half so there is only like 10.5 million Bitcoin available it's not true it's a joke okay with some number of Bitcoin and roughly every four years that reward gets cut in half it's called a having and this week I saw somebody who reminded me all this and I just want to give this guy a proper shout out so his name is Wes kasaris and Wes in Silicon Valley I would say really was Agent Zero of Bitcoin he was the one in 2000 can you imagine you are connected to the guys that will introduce Bitcoin in the SE good Valley which is like the center of the tech world and you can talk with that guy that's another level of connection and knowledge that and leverage that you can use to reach billions literally and that's really impressive 2010 that introduced it to me I remember he reminded me of the story actually we were at Oren hummus and he's like he's Argentinian he's a great so I'm gonna try to copy like you have to buy the Bitcoin so I heard the story I fell in love with it I remember I called my family office I'm like buy me a million of these things and he was like or a million dollars worth and he was like are you crazy and I was like no this just a little appetizer we'll get to the main main course anyways he 1 million appetizer let's go that's what's up buy my nft bro he's done a phenomenal job of understanding and prosti Bitcoin I want to thank him because he really put me on to this but he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple days ago which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having and so I was really curious and so I had a guy on my team Quinton put this together so Nick let me just let's go to the first page so why is this interesting social capital is his F and yeah he has a team to analyze all of the investment that they're going to do and that's what we are going to discover right now here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having three months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months so we are here right now we are in the first one and three months summer will be in the three months so it's going to be interesting to see what's going to happen in the next six months but I personally expect nothing going crazy but what's going to be fun it's going to be like with the 12 months definitely with the ETF one it could fly hard so yeah let's see what's happen next year within six months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28 and after this third having it returned almost in adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time if you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation especially with the timing of the ETF right because now that we have the ETF on bitcoin but also on E the 12 months time frame will make it possible to have an even more amount of money flowing into an ecosystem and that could have an impact on the Bitcoin price action that could be really really interesting to see happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024 which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages they're by no means predict okay so I just want to qualify that this is not final advice this not Financial advice these are just gues we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to oh so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle two and three and what you start to see is some really meaning because yeah you don't want to take into consideration that the bull market that lasted during the covid cycle which was like an historical event and you don't really want to predict your future investment based on that kind of setup because there is a high chance that it never going to happen again when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin credibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there's an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to be um which makes sense in a world where people are are born with an Instagram account and live stream on YouTube why do you want to own gold when you have Bitcoin that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunities so I just thought that this was a interesting thing that he that he here's our disclaimer interesting thing that he put me on I thought I'd share that with you I'll publish this on Twitter but that's your crypto corner for the year folks I think it's really interesting how the crypto Community is getting organized into basically a Lobby to advocate for it that's web three utility we still have to make noise on Twitter for people to hear about us and show us that the industry is not insignificant anymore and also allow people to elevate their Financial Freedom interest because Lobby in America did you know that are you sure sh what about the NRA they've been so targeted over the last few years because gendler and Warren have been on a crusade to basically make crypto illegal or drive it offshore well which is a big mistake bro bye Gary bye Warren Warren Warren Warren you down in November Chow peace out it's going to be fun every action has a equal and opposite reaction and now the crypto people have basically had a political Awakening and realize they have to get involved in the political system yeah just as a matter of Defense self-defense sh a Pioneer well not like that I mean that guy I mean he was dropping money on everybody yeah did you guys hear this to basically push for regulatory capture remember yeah did you guys hear this rumor that SPF was going to put a billion dollars into the election and convince Tom Brady to run as a Republican and give no give the billion to Trump oh sorry give the billion to Trump he was gonna give Trump a billion to not run okay and then get Tom Brady to run I mean this person had delusions of grounder he thought he was a Jedi Knight and that would have been funny as man if that would have happened damn if true if true if true we never know right I like could he's like literally in job's Palace right now I don't know what this I mean what a lunatic he was I mean talk about delusions of grandeur sack this guy thought he would just drop a billion dollars and convince somebody not to run for government I think we're going to I think we're going to get a regulatory you know back to the young people we talked about in the previous Story the reason they're attracted to crypto is because it doesn't have government control and since if you don't trust the government and because it's easier like you don't need to go to your bank at 2: p.m.
on a Saturday to make a transfer it's way easier bro yeah King fist right it's a story right those guy are connected like okay they know they are the the real cabal and you see the government over and over and over again cover things up or the grift or make decisions that are not in your generation's best interest why wouldn't you opt out of their financial system and you know what there's a lot of them and they have they're getting organized to your points ax I think we're going to have a crypto frame work and it's worth probably five points in this election what do you think Saks how many points is being the pro crypto candidate worth in this election one two three points of votes Four Points it's got to be if young people show up it'll be it'll be it could be 500 basis points I mean young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about correct this take is also massive right because again after the Malcolm and Frank video it shows that the web Street Community and crypto is able to make noise around it and when there is a topic that they care about they they will back up the candidate so if Trump won the election because he replied to a question from a dead gen the president will be massive and Malcolm Will Make History by being the guys that elected president with one question I have hard time believe that only that event will make it happen but that play a big role let's see what they have to say about it but there's 50 million Americans that own crypto 50 5 Z hey Chad GPT is telling me that only 14 to 20% of American adults own cryptocurrency maybe 50% is a lot where will get that though okay so if 10% of them are like let's say that's their single five million votes no no no there's a there is a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation right so for example like you know Biden President Biden talked about giving people a head start by eliminating their debt that's a narrow issue and the reason it's a narrow issue there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt and it creates a lot of Hales and have knots right and there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief Etc you end up touching four or five million people maximum but if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge Against The Establishment and the traditional finan system and you are threatening to take that wealth away I could see how 80% of those folks show up to The Ballot Box and say all right which one of you will just leave me alone and if the answer is President Trump then they're all going to vote for president Trump I think this is like such a great issue for political candidates to embrace and it's just such a simple framework I've said it a dozen times create a sophisticated investor test let a thousand flowers bloom people can make whatever crypto projects they want but to buy it you just have to take a simple test like a driver's license so that you don't risk your entire net worth or whatever if you do you're an informed buyer of crypto just make us we don't need a test we need to let people being accountable for their choice if you lose your money it's on you does the government have a say to the way you you want to use your money for what why it's your money and if it's not just let me know regulation if investing are protecting the status quo and protecting like like white color bankers and suits with crypto you can do what the you want just let us leave and invest in every monkey gex on internet and if we lose money that's our fault that's it like you can protect everyone for getting homeless because they bait the house on Red where the story could have hand differently anyway we have to learn accountability sophisticated investor Tes and let's move on shath just since we're in crypto cor before we leave crypto Corner when is my ape going to be worth money again when will my ape go back up never so my ape's not coming back okay so I guess I shouldn't have done that ouch can at least deot can come back to 1,000 Soul at least please I don't care about the Apes I don't have any but deot make it happens to 1,000 Soul wait how how's sax coin doing we had sax coin and we had coin went crazy but that was a pump and dub scheme that we had nothing to do with I will never sell you a coin until I do I just want to let everybody know that if you get a DM from me I am not selling jco until you hear it first I would literally do an Angel Investing coin immediately if there was a framework for it it would be the greatest idea ever to have like a jco and I could just like put it into startups and then people could buy and sell it and be like this ongoing Evergreen Venture where's my J da that's massive as soon as we have the regulation for that if we can have business in investors coins and we tokenize then business and performances on the free market like crypto that's that's that would be awesome can't wait for that day but it will come maybe if Bitcoin is going to half a million I I love Dows and I love I love the idea of an Angel Investing coin but man a startup coin would be brilliant yeah the Jason coin is basically at zero it man it it was worth it's down to eight grand clear I didn't have anything to do with sax coin either but I was more amused by it than anything else yeah well my friend decided to tell everybody he was going to buy some and that straight to the mood pretty funny I it's hilarious I have some I've only we've only bought crypto twice we have some Doge which I bought during like the Doge phase a couple years ago and then my wife precedently bought Bitcoin you know at a very low price when everybody was talking about it around Thanksgiving and uh my hard Bitcoin went phenomenal and my doge is at break even now so I've spent two years just on the pulum but who knows maybe Doge will become a thing again I love Doge all right we have a bell weather of sorts here s wait wait wait I don't know if Jon Hada before but I don't know if you remember they made a tweet like two years ago when they were talking about s and they laughing at it because they were dumping the token at 250 so yeah I don't know if Jon had that but I clearly remember that tweet but anyway if the if the analysis from shamat is correct that mean we will have the same kind of cycle that before where Bitcoin rares to half a million and then we should be able to have hard and other assets to fly a little bit after it will be definitely interesting to see the price action of Bitcoin Post alving in the next three months because we are now in June so it was a little bit like less than two months ago okay so we still need to wait for four to six months to see what's going to happen next but if you want to make some money and never touch it again maybe it will be sweet to in increase your exposure on bitcoin and then R it to son before the altcoin season starts and that's it for today thank you so much for watching this video don't forget to subscribe to the Orin podcast you can find the link in the description if you want to have this information directly but if you don't and you prefer a little sweet analysis subscribe to these channels we just launch so we need more people over here and thank you so much for King is for showing up in the streams it's always cool to see you in the chat if you want to participate while I film those videos you can subscribe to the D channels and become YouTube fans and again thank you so much for watching the video Until the End I will see you tomorrow for another video enjoy the rest of your day touch grass take profit bye-bye peace
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