저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 이란 전쟁 관련 협상 발언이 시장을 조작하는 '테이코(taco)' 패턴이라는 주장. 금요일 장 마감 무렵 강경 발언, 월요일 장 시작 전 진정 메시지 패턴을 근거로 제시. 원유 옵션 5.8억 달러 베팅이 발언 직전 몰린 점을 내부자 거래 의혹으로 제기. 미 지상군(82공수사단, 상륙준비단) 증파 움직임과 사우디·UAE 참전 고려 보도를 확전 신호로 해석. 이란은 협상 부인, 미사일 프로그램 유지 입장. 이 영상에서 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향을 명시한 예측은 없고 원유 관련 단기 해석만 있음.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump is preparing 3,000 paratroopers to enter the war against Iran. On top of that, Iranian media is claiming that Donald Trump is just running a psychological operation by manipulating markets on Fridays and on Mondays. We'll talk about just that. On top of that, we might be on the edge not of de-escalation, but of escalation with now the Wall Street Journal breaking that Gulf states, specifically Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are considering joining the war.
This is all escalatory, not de-escalatory, and it is a problem. Let's talk about all of this and more in this video. Let's stick to the facts, and when there are opinions, I'll point those out to you. Also, forgive if you hear any background noise from the baby monitors. I got to watch five sleeping children while Lauren is out with the boys.
Let's get into this. First, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are, quote, inching toward fighting against Iran. There is a quote that says, "It is only a matter of time before they join the war." And the Saudi foreign minister says, quote, "Patience with Iranian attacks is not unlimited. Any belief that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a miscalculation." This is very important because Saudi Arabia is quite a rich country, is trying to preserve its oil exports not just through the Gulf on the east, but also through the Red Sea on the west.
So, wanting to prevent that Houthi activation on the southwest in at the bottom of the Red Sea, which would basically snarl shipping there, just like we're getting at the Strait of Hormuz on the eastern flank. Saudi Arabia bridges the two via land. And so, both of them are now considering it's just a matter of time, and they could join the war.
Now, Saudi Arabia has already authorized the United States to use some of its airbases, which it previously had not allowed, and now is considering joining the war themselves. The United Arab Emirates is also a financial hub for Iranian businesses and individuals and can potentially freeze billions of dollars of Iranian holdings, not just the government, but also businesses and individuals within Iran, putting a lot of economic squeeze on Iran.
Iran is already resorting to printing billions of dollars because their currency is getting massively debased through this war. Now, at the same time this is happening, if you want to think about money, don't worry, the Trump administration is apparently making a plenty of money, and you're probably paying for it, because traders placed 580 million dollars in option bets on oil right before Donald Trump said that progress was being made on negotiations.
Now, who bets half a billion dollars that oil is going to move down, so you're going to short oil, 15 minutes before Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that hey, we're having productive conversations. I hate to say it, but I think there are plenty of people, and this is my opinion, but I think there are a lot of people on the Trump payroll that sit in that White House Oval Office, and they hear Donald Trump say, "Hey, I'm going to put together this Truth Social to say we're having productive talks." And they go, "Yo, JP Morgan, buddy, you know, probably typing this out, Trump about to post productive talks with Iran, oil likely to plummet." Just saying, send it through Signal.
We know Pete Hegseth uses Signal, and boom, they make lots of money. And guess what? You scratch my back, I scratch yours. Come on, folks, some of that money's going right back into the pockets. Now, of the people leaking. That's my opinion. I want to be clear about that. That is my opinion. The fact is that somebody bet half a billion dollars in oil markets 15 minutes before Donald Trump's posting about productive talks.
And then obviously oil plunged about 11% which in the options market could turn into 100 to 1,000% gains depending on exactly the expiration time frames of those contracts because they're derivatives and they move a lot faster than the underlying, especially when news breaks immediately. It's the perfect tool for insider trading, but hey, let's just get away from insider trading for a moment and let's actually talk about the psychological analysis that Iranian media is conducting on Donald Trump.
And then we got to talk about 3,000 paratroopers potentially getting deployed because this is starting to sound more like a world war than anything else. So, uh I'm going to play this but we're actually going to play this on mute right here because it's all in Iranian, almost all, like 99% is in Iranian.
There's like one line where they read a headline in America in English and I'm like, oh wow, they actually speak freedom, uh which was crazy. But only, you know, 0.1% freedom out of their whole transcript. So, anyway, yeah, you have to watch their transcript, you know, I also fact check their transcript afterwards.
I I can't read who this agency is, so let's take it for what it's worth, but I just like to address their claims. They claim that Donald Trump regularly tweets aggression on Fridays after the market closes or somewhere around an hour before the market closes, somewhere in that time frame. This has happened over the last 20 days, they claim.
And then he escalates or ratchets up threats like the 48-hour threat over the weekend. Then right before the market opens on Mondays, he sends calming messages. He did this at the beginning of the war as well. Remember that same night that oil spiked to $120 a barrel and then the International Energy Agency said, "Oh, we're going to release strategic oil." And Donald Trump said, "The war is almost over anyway." That all happened on a Monday morning.
The same thing just happened on replay. Calming messages come Monday before market open because Donald Trump is fixated with the stock market and of course what's happening in the treasury market probably because Scott Baston is leading over going, bro, you need to say something cuz the two-year just hit 4%.
Uh and then they just make something up to calm markets down. That works until it doesn't. Now in fairness that worked during liberation day. It worked great during liberation day. And a lot of people are saying this is exactly the same thing, you know, Donald Trump says, "Hey, we're negotiating with China." And then China says, "We're not negotiating with Donald Trump." And then 3 weeks later you get a trade deal with with China where they agree to reduce tariffs to a 30% baseline plus the prior tariffs, right?
That was a reduction from the larger tariffs that were issued before. It's really still only a framework deal, so it's not technically a complete deal, but it was something and they did announce something and you know, now after I mean obviously we had a meeting delayed between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, but it seems like tensions have calmed enough to the point where they're willing to meet.
So, you know, this could be part of Donald Trump's chaos theory, but there's also the risk that in this case he's not dealing with people who are motivated by finance where Donald Trump can really leverage our financial strength against China. He's actually dealing with killing the daughters and family members and sons of people ideologically motivated to destroy America and who chant death to America.
That's a little bit of a different adversary. Anyway, this agency claims that Donald Trump regularly does this and what he's really doing is trying to get Iran to buy a bow down. What they actually think Trump is doing is buying time for troops to be deployed. This is why we are seeing paratroopers potentially get deployed.
Listen to some of these troop movements. So first of all, Fort Bragg and other units are underway from bases in that well Fort So a base is Fort Bragg, right? Units from Fort Bragg and other units are now underway from bases throughout the United States to the Middle East, potentially staging more ground troops in the region.
This is a significant ramp-up compared to the 50,000 troops we already have in the Middle East. We're now looking at over the last since March 12th, so over the last 11 days, 35 more C-17 flights, 11 more underway. USS Tripoli, the amphibious assault group, arrives this Wednesday. That aligns with Donald Trump's 5-day taco, it, Friday, 48-hour threat, right before market open, just kidding, we'll give you a 5-day extension.
That 5-day extension perfectly gets you to market close on Friday, and it happens to be when USS Tripoli arrives. Interesting. We've also got USS Boxer, the other amphibious ready group, coming from San Diego. That'll take about 3 weeks for them to show up, but we're moving more troops into the area.
Now, this sounds like we're actually de-escalating, especially since senior military officials are now considering deploying the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to support operations in Iran. That is an immediate response force of 3,000 soldiers capable of deploying anywhere within the world within 18 hours.
They were supposed to go to training. They were supposed to have a training in Louisiana at Fort Polk. That joint readiness training got canceled because they want to prepare them and have them ready for that 18-hour turn time for an Iranian deployment. Interesting. Amphibious units, more ground troops, more C-17s, multiple amphibious units, paratroopers.
Now, why would you want paratroopers? Can't the Marines do it alone? Not really. Marines are often used to bring in heavy equipment with paratroopers who can help stabilize an area a lot longer when they operate together rather than just solely. Now, there are some questions here. Can Donald Trump pull this off with the Army without Congress?
Maybe he could do it with the Marines, but can he do it with the Army? That's going to be the politics side. We're going to leave that out of the video. What's more important here is some discussions from the Drop Site News company. Now, I haven't studied this company, I don't know much about them. They could be shills for all I know who are anti-Trumpers, or they could be exactly right on.
I don't know, I just want to report what I heard. It was a video from one of their journalists hosted by their company, okay? This guy has this like 4 and 1/2 minute video. And he works for Drop News. Independent news is what they say, whatever. Again, I don't know anything about them, I don't read them.
But, I just want to tell you what they're saying. They say that they have reported information that Steve Witkoff asked to negotiate with the Iranians, and the Iranians iced him. And when Drop News talked about it and reported about it, the White House basically called them fake news, said they were abhorrent, denounced the Drop News site, and called them America last people.
Then, the White House ran to Axios and said that the Iranians were begging Donald Trump to speak. Now, we don't know if that's true, but that is what they are claiming happened, which is very interesting. Now, they also go on to say that Iran, through its intermediaries, have said that when messages come to Iran from allies, Iran is willing to make a deal if we do not do a ceasefire like the 12-day war last time, because they saw that as a gimmick for the US and Israel to buy time.
They want any cessation of war to apply to Iraq and Lebanon, which is literally where Israel is increasing their offensives right now, bombing bridges so they could likely invade on the ground. That is a worsening, not an improvement, right? They want reparations. Good luck getting reparations. They literally want Israel and the United States to pay damages.
They want Israel's money funneled through the United States because Iran doesn't want to touch Israel's money. Whatever. They also think that the more Donald Trump lies about negotiations, the more Iran hardens their positions. They also want to maintain their ballistic missile program, and they will not entertain any discussions on ballistic missiles, especially long-range ballistic missiles, because they see that as their only deterrent to war, and they're possibly going to partner with Russia and China on nuclear weapons.
Mind you, Zelenskyy, remember him over in Ukraine? He's already telling us, for, you know, what that's worth, that Russia is clearly providing intelligence, undeniably, to Iran. Now, when we start putting all of this together, all of this sounds escalatory and not like a ramp down. Now, what I'd like to also do is show you some quotes of what the very person that Donald Trump likely talked about this morning as potentially a replacement leader said after Donald Trump made his claims.
I just want to point out that this morning, and this is just free information, it's not a pitch. This morning in our Alpha report, and just so you can learn, okay? I'm just going to tell you what we said. This morning in the Alpha report, we were at 593 on in pre-market, and I said, "Folks, it does not going to pay to go bullish today on the market." Why?
I said, "Because most of it's already priced in." Because how are you going to make money going from 593 to 595? 595 is our rejection point. I set this up at about 6:00 a.m. this morning, so about 30 minutes before the market open. You get this in writing, you get it in a video, we talk about it every day.
You can get this at mekevin.com, but I want you to see exactly what happened. Look at the stock market on the Qs today. You can't make this line up. You know this line has been here for months. I didn't just put this line here. That line has been there for months. We twice double top rejected 595, and of course closed substantially lower.
Folks, if you don't have the Alpha Report yet, here's the pitch. Go to meetkevin.com. And if you go to meetkevin.com, there you could use this new coupon code that we have, which is flip-flop. And it has everything to do with Donald Trump flip-flopping, because he's been doing a lot of that. You can get that over at meetkevin.com.
But now, what did Donald Trump say this morning, and how does this compare to what the Iranians said? Well, Donald Trump this morning said that he wants that that he's in a testing phase, and that in this testing phase, they're potentially considering working with another leader inside of Iran. And that's whom they're having negotiations with.
Donald Trump said this is not the Ayatollah, which is interesting because it does suggest that anybody's actually having these discussions with the United States is actually going behind the back of the Ayatollah. Donald Trump did not want to identify the person, because Donald Trump thinks that person might end up getting killed after it comes out that they're working with Donald Trump.
Now, it should be no surprise to you that I saw on the news wires within an hour of Donald Trump saying, "We don't want to say who it is because they might get killed." Within an hour of that, Israel comes out and says, "We know who it is! So, we have a tip now. I I don't want I don't know why that just sounded German.
But But that's exactly what happened. Donald Trump said, "We had strong talks. We're dealing with somebody who's respected, we believe. It's not the supreme leader. Kushner and Kushner are talking. And if they carry through with their end of the bargain, the conflict will end." Things they've done so far have taken place.
There were discussions Sunday evening. We'll probably do it more by phone, but they want low-key on missiles, no nukes, and peace. We want the highly enriched uranium. We can't guarantee a deal. Iran called us. Iran was a threat. We did what we could, but we uh think that we're going to get the highly enriched uranium, and we think they were digging down to get the highly enriched uranium, but fortunately, if this could be the new leader, we could work together and open the Strait of Hormuz.
So, there was then speculation about who this person was. Some people thought it might have been the foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi. Reuters points out that uh Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan have met with Araqchi and Vitkov, Steve Vitkov. Now, the ministry says that there have been initiatives to reduce tensions, and this person has been the main diplomat.
He's been there since 1999, but it probably wasn't him. Even though on March 14th, he said that Iran would be willing to give up their highly enriched uranium, Israel name-dropped somebody else. They name-dropped Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Now, I probably butchered that, but I'm just doing my best. He is the speaker of the Iranian parliament.
He has contributed to death to America chance. He has a lot more IRGC credibility, so it is entirely possible that this person would be a great sign to have negotiations with if it's true. Now, Ghalibaf has been very negative to America. He's been around for a while. He's been around since uh well, actually longer than 2008.
In 2008, he said if the US accepts Iran is here to stay, we can make a deal. He's considered a pragmatist, but he's also a hardliner who wants Americans to pay for the Iranian blood that has been spilled. Now, Israel says he's the guy. The problem with this is he himself ended up going on X and saying, "You guys are smoking crack.
I ain't talking to the United States." Here it is. The Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors. All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and the people until this goal is achieved. No negotiations have been held with the United States and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets to escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.
Now, we know that Iran loves when there's economic damage to the United States. They love spiking treasuries and they love the damage to our stock market. That is a weapon for them. However, you kind of have to admit he probably has to say this to avoid the supreme leader executing this guy. So, we don't really know.
What we do know is that CBS News is being told by the military that there are now at least a dozen naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and that Pakistan has reportedly been stepping in to mediate, but good luck. Now, they want this guy to end up Come say hi. Now, they want this guy to end up going to Islamabad, Pakistan to strike a deal with the Americans.
But, do you actually think Ghalibaf is going to go to Islamabad? Islamabad, Pakistan. It's probably not going to be friendly for him. It might be a great place to go and get executed, especially for somebody who's been chanting death to America. But, that portion is my opinion. So, this is a full breakdown of everything that has been going on in Iran.
Jack, would you like to hand this to Mom? You want to say hi? Where is the camera? The camera's right there. Hi. There you go. Meet Jack. He's an amazing son. Do you remember where that's from? Well, tell tell everyone where that's from. The the thing that Dad made like a while ago, like Meet Beth. What is What is it?
Meet Beth. He's a lousy real estate That's right. Meet Beth. He's a lousy real estate / level 90 gold elf warrior. That was my real estate commercial from 13 years ago. Anyway, I'm getting hot in here. I just got back from the gym. That's the update. It's really hard to say any of this is good, especially with Donald Trump's tendency to taco, but then again we kind of want taco, but we want honest taco because if it's a lie taco and this is just profiteering by insiders to take corporate profit, then not only is it a lie to the American people, but it is a lie to the Iranians, which makes them even less likely to strike a deal with us. All of that is a problem. nd go to meetkevin.com. Why don't you .
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