저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 중국 리스크 확대로 신흥시장 자금은 인도·동남아 중심으로 이동하고, 고금리 장기화 속 부채 많은 기업은 피해야 한다는 견해. 지정학·중국: 시진핑 발언과 대만 이슈로 중국과 미국의 갈등이 다음 위기가 될 수 있다고 봄. 중국은 성장을 희생해 지정학적 안정을 택하는 듯하며, 미국의 중국 기술기업 근무 미국인 제재 등으로 중국 기술 발전에 큰 장애가 예상됨. 투자 대응: 대만 기업 중 실리콘밸리 등 미국에 사무소가 있는 반도체 설계사를 선호. 중국 내 록다운 등으로 중국 투자 안전성 우려. 신흥시장 재배치: 글로벌 경제 분절화로 블록화 가능성. 인도가 중국 제조업 이전의 수혜국이며 영어 인구와 대형 소프트웨어 산업으로 유망. 베트남·태국·말레이시아·인도네시아 제조 역시 인도로 이동할 것으로 봄. 통화·기업 선별: 약한 통화·고인플레 국가의 수출 기업은 달러 매출·현지통화 비용 구조로 수혜 가능. 거시적으로는 외환보유고와 자본이동 규제를 점검해야 함. 사우디·미국: 석유 대금 결제 통화 다변화 등 위험이 제기되지만, 미국-사우디 관계가 넓고 깊어 큰 위기로 번지지 않을 것으로 봄. 원자재: 높은 가격에 수요가 둔화되어 원자재 가격 하락 가능성이 있으나 크게 떨어지지는 않을 것으로 봄. 현재 인도·대만·브라질·터키·베트남에 분산 투자 중이며 아시아 비중이 가장 큼. 매도 대상: 부채비율이 높고 자기자본이익률(ROCE 등 자본수익률)이 낮은 기업. 미국 금리가 인플레이션 대응을 위해 9%까지 오를 수 있다고 전망하며, CPI가 하락하지 않는 한 이 흐름이 이어질 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
where's the next Crisis uh the next Crisis will probably be as to what China is doing and they and so I'm going forward given the statements recently made by Xi Jinping uh I think and the fact that Biden has said that they will the US government will support Taiwan uh I think that will be the next Crisis coming up what do you make of what we're hearing out of the party Congress thus far um I have to say she's in ping sounded like he is determined to maybe sacrifice growth for that that geopolitical stability uh that you've just been talking about vis-a-vis Taiwan as investors should think as investors think about Taiwan as they think about the Chinese economy is that the trade that we should be thinking about a slower Chinese economy but a more potentially belligerent China with reference to the rest of the world okay it's not only about a slowing Chinese economy but the safety of investments in China because you've got a situation where uh for example just now the U.S has said any America 's working for Chinese tech companies have to quit or lose their citizenship that's an amazing statement and has tremendous implications for the development of Chinese technology so that's that is a big big problem facing China and then because in addition to that the lockdowns and all the rest of it is going to set big big challenges for China and of course unfortunately when the people are against the wall they fight back and that's probably what we're seeing with the statements made by Xi Jinping he's you know he's making Bill return statements when it comes to Taiwan then and the and chips for example and the growing conflict between the U.S and China how do you price for that as an investor well what we do is we say okay uh let's look at those software companies companies that do design the chips that don't have fast in what we call fabulous companies and companies that have a leg in America I mean you look at any Taiwan tech company they have an office in Silicon Valley or they have offices and other parts of the US so that's the kind of company you want to be in case something happens unlikely to happen in the near future because you must remember if the U.S puts trade sanctions on China to any great greater degree this could be a big big problem for Chinese economy so any case that's the way we are handling that situation when you think about what's happening in Emerging Markets more broadly we have fragmentation of the global economy it's going to be interesting to see just how far that fragmentation goes ultimately are we going to see two spheres of influence Mark is that how I should be thinking about the countries that I want to select to put investments in is this the way we're going is it going to be a Russia China sphere of influence and the rest of the world sphere of influence how should I be categorizing geographically where I want to put money to work I think you've got to consider the indian spirit of influence because India is coming up and is benefiting from the problems that China is now facing so a lot of the manufacturing that's now in China will be moving to India and of course you've got tremendous advantages in India with an English population English-speaking population and uh you already have a huge software industry so I think India is a place to be and a lot of the manufacturing that's now in Southeast Asia and growing in Southeast Asia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia will be gravitating more and more to India so that's a very exciting prospect I believe going forward Mark do you need a certain Dollar in order to really execute on that thesis how well you know when you talk about dollar Investments you have to be very careful of course with some of these Emerging Market currencies but what we're finding is that in many of these Emerging Market uh companies in countries with weak currencies and with high inflation who are benefiting from this situation why because what they're doing is producing products and software in US Dollars selling them in US Dollars exporting them and their costs are in local currency because the local currency costs are going down with inflation and with deterioration of the exchange rate so uh recently we're in Turkey for example we found that to be the case one car manufacturer said I Can't Get Enough cause because there's so many people that want to buy these cars and we're exporting of course to Europe and so forth so uh you have to look at each individual company to determine where you want to be but of course on a macro area you can't hope that the currency reserves are enough so you can get your money out so that's what we look at what are the currency reserves and what are the restrictions on the flows of capital in and out of the country Mark how carefully are you watching the dynamic between Riyadh and Washington right now um we've obviously seen the presidents of the United States expressing his displeasure about the recent decision by OPEC plus to cut capacity there have been some suggestions that we could be seeing a no-pack bill going through a response to that from Riyadh and other members of the GCC potentially could be maybe to start thinking about repricing their oil exports in something other than dollars potentially also selling treasuries how big a tail risk do you think this could potentially be well I don't think it's going to be very serious especially because the connection between Saudi Arabia and the US is very wide and very deep you must remember there are many many Americans living and working in Saudi Arabia to begin with and also there are many other aspects beside oil if you look at the defense sales from the U.S and one of the reasons why Trump the first thing he did when he was president was fly to Riyadh in order to sell more U.S military equipment so I don't think this is going to go very far I think of course it's the current Administration is very angry but I don't think it'll go further than that um Mark that kind of brings me tangentially to the topic of Commodities um we were talking earlier in the show about one of the risks and the idea that the long commodity trait is at risk because there's just so much money in that trade um how would you be playing that right now I'd be careful with commodities because demand is two of the inflation at higher prices you must remember the people that are buying Commodities are sitting on weaker and weaker currencies the Emerging Market companies by the way European the Euro was in bad shape so as a result of that they're going to be trying to reduce their uh purchases of Commodities so you're probably going to see a downturn in commodity prices but it won't go too far simply because uh inflation is eaten into uh the cost of production and so forth and it'll be more difficult to have very very cheap quantities I don't think that'll happen Mark where are you putting money to work right now right now India Taiwan um Brazil we have some things in Brazil uh a little bit in turkey and also in Vietnam so we're pretty well spread out globally uh but of course the biggest pots are in Asia um what would you be selling right now I'd be selling any companies with a high debt to Jet equity ratio number one companies that have a low return on Capital these are the two parameters that are very very crucial in this day and age because of this problem with currencies and high inflation anybody sitting on debts uh High debts are going to be in trouble because of the higher interest rates I see interest rates in America going to nine percent because how much is one raising rates nine certainly because okay exactly because if inflation is eight percent The Playbook says you've got to raise rates higher than inflation which means nine percent of course that theory will go out the window if the CPI goes down but I don't see that happening anytime soon
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