Financial Stability Gives Fed Only One More Hike: Ed Yardeni

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결론: 연준은 금융안정 우려로 금리 인상 사이클을 곧 마무리할 가능성이 크며, 강달러와 글로벌 경기침체 속에서 미국 자산이 상대적 안전처가 된다는 입장. 연준 상황: 라일 브레이너드 연준 부의장의 연설로 연준이 볼커와 버냉키 사이의 딜레마에 놓였다고 진단. 금융안정이 최우선 과제로 부상했다고 봄. 금리 전망: 연준 기준금리가 4.5~5%까지 오르지 않을 것으로 예상. 11월 초 한 차례 추가 인상 후 종료 가능성. 75bp 인상 가능성에 대해서는 명확히 답하지 않음. 강달러와 금융위기 우려: 긴축적 통화정책(QT2와 강달러)이 글로벌 금융위기로 이어질 수 있다고 경고. 신흥국 기업과 정부가 달러 차입을 많이 해 강달러가 직접 타격을 준다고 봄. 미국 증시: 장기적으로 다소 긍정적. 마이크 윌슨의 실적 침체 경고에 대해 글로벌 관점에서는 침체가 유럽과 중국에 있으며 미국은 안전처로 자금이 몰린다고 봄. 미국 기업 실적은 횡보 전망. 경기: 미국은 이미 성장 침체(growth recession) 상태이며 2분기 연속 무성장. 3분기는 유사하거나 소폭 플러스, 4분기도 성장 침체 지속 전망. 전반적으로 미국이 세계 다른 지역보다 나은 상황으로 평가. 채권시장: 영국 중앙은행의 조치가 다른 중앙은행들의 템플릿이 될 수 있다고 봄. 일본 모델처럼 장기금리에 상한을 두는 방향으로 움직일 수 있다는 유사성 언급. 출연자 관점 요약: 긴축 장기화보다 금융안정 우려에 따른 인상 종료, 강달러 지속, 미국 자산 선호가 핵심 메시지.

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01. you call it a bearish Opera and on we go with the media how do you sort out act one from act three how do you figure out what's going on if everyone's speaking Italian yeah well the idea of the Opera is that came to me uh on Friday when Fed chair lail brennerd gave a speech in which she basically indicated the FED is sort of between a rock and a hard place I think it's actually between Volker 2.0 and Bernanke 2.0 and so well it is kind of a bearish Opera and the conclusion is that they operate over until the FED lady sings a more optimistic tune she was very concerned about financial stability it's really the first time that you it's artificial talking about financial stability and you said uh on the show that the financial stability is in fact one of the mandates and the question is how important is it and I think it's number one okay it's number one is financial stability great but the fact of the matter is when the facts change any Central Bank changes how close are to we to the facts changing where we see it we observe it in the FED dialogue well I'm I'm totally stumped mystified surprised that fed officials don't seem to acknowledge that just focusing on the FED funds rate as part of the monetary tightening cycle is a mistake when you also have qt2 and you have a soaring dollar these these are very restrictive monetary developments and I believe that they're not going to get up to four and a half five percent on the FED funds rate I think they got one more rate high coming uh in early November and that'll be it because the financial stability issue will pop up as primary concern hold on a second so do you think that they're going to raise rates possibly even by 75 basis points I'll let you speak for yourself and then that's it because something breaks what breaks well I think it's already breaking I think what's breaking is the soaring dollar The Soaring dollar has been associated in the past with creating creating Financial crises on a global basis we have to have a global perspective on all this and this uh tight monetary policy here is having a tremendous impact on the rest of the world especially in the Emerging Markets where companies do tend to and governments do tend to borrow in dollars and a soaring dollar is just killing them and Ed you've been somewhat constructive on the U.S stock market longer term more constructive than a lot of people and yet Mike Wilson over the weekend said that light at the end of the tunnel that you might see from a Fed that does pause or even pivot is actually a freight train of the oncoming earnings recession that the FED cannot stop how do you deal with the earnings recession that will ensue from some of the tightening that would be necessary a prerequisite for the FED to maintain that pause well again I take a Global Perspective from a Global Perspective I agree with Mike Wilson that but there is a recession out there but I think it's in Europe and I think it's in China and I think it's uh basically in the rest of the world and the rest of the world needs a safe haven and a safe haven is the United States so the dollar remains strong money continues to pour into the U.S credit markets and I think you're also going to see some money coming into the equity markets on a global basis I see earnings going sideways I think we are I think we're already in a recession it's just a growth recession we have had two quarters now of no growth I think third quarter is going to shape up something also similar to that maybe slightly positive fourth quarter a continuation of that growth recession so I think that's that's what we experience I think on balance we make it through this in much better shape than the rest of the world I just want to finish on the board Vigilantes your term you coined it long time ago do you think these central banks will allow the Bond vigilantes to wreak havoc through Bond markets for longer than a week well I I think what the bank of England did is uh an example of what the you know the templates for what the others are likely to do I do think there's similarities between what's going on and sort of moving towards the Japan model of uh keeping a peg on the long end