저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표 전 기술적으로 하락추세이며 175달러까지 하락 가능성 언급. 2024년 인도량 가이던스(2.1~2.2백만 대 시장 컨센서스 vs 본인 목표 2.5백만 대)가 핵심 변수. 베를린 2주 가동 중단 영향은 제한적이고 홍해 우회는 일시적 지연으로 봄. 마진 바닥 확인이 중요하며 장기적으로 FSD·로봇 등 부가가치로 주가 상승 여지가 크다는 낙관적 입장. 단기 변동성은 인정하나 장기 보유 견해 유지.
다듬은 글
Yes, I will be covering Tesla earnings live tomorrow. Click the description or the link in the pinned comment down below to set your reminder for the live stream. Tesla stock could absolutely crash and burn tomorrow and fall 17% down to its next fib retracement. There are two very important things that could prevent this from happening.
In this video, we are going to discuss whether it's time for tomorrow morning you to panic sell Tesla or for you to evaluate and go, "Hmm, I know what's going on with Tesla and I'm okay with it." And let's do some analysis as well as some price projections all in this video. Okay, first things first, right now Tesla stock sits at a close of $209.
Our next fib retracement is 175 and we literally have no support below us for the next 16 to 17%. This is a very horrible place for a stock to be on a technical basis. We are in a tactical downtrend. We could see the wedge pattern that's been formed out here. It it's not great. We could see we have no support from the 100-day, the 200-day.
We are literally below the resistance of the 221, but we're not even close to it. We're not even trying 221 in the trading days leading into earnings. So, we've got issues. This is not great. The floor is wide open for Tesla to plummet. Now, what do I expect? Well, what I expect is two very important metrics to be front and center for tomorrow.
Anytime we get an annual Q4 report from Tesla, we get something very impressive known as the production and delivery forecast. And this is going to be critical because there are some estimates circulating online from people who have traditionally been relative Tesla bulls who are suggesting that Tesla might announce only a one 2.1 rather to 2.2 million vehicle delivery target for 2024.
Keep in mind, what we're looking for at minimum is 2.36. Why? Because that would represent about 30% vehicle growth. But that would still be a disappointment from the good old 50% target that clearly isn't going so well anymore. So, consider the standards. If we get a number under 2.366, we'll probably have a disappointment because we want earnings per share growth.
Now, just because we miss on the top line forecast of 30% growth, doesn't mean we can't hit 30% growth on earnings per share because we could see cost declines come in, the benefits of stable supply chains, although we've got issues in the Red Sea shutting down Tesla Berlin right now, which isn't exactly a nice way to reiterate that supply chains are getting better when they're literally getting worse, given that Tesla's going to be shut down for 2 weeks in Berlin.
That's That's not good. That's not the direction we want to go. But anyway, yes, yes, there is a way that you can deliver less than a 30% increase in vehicle deliveries and still get your 30% EPS bump, earnings per share, right? That's important. Pay attention to that. We want 30% on EPS. Right now, the Wall Street consensus for the next four years is that Tesla will grow its earnings per share by 31%.
Now, why is that so important? Well, it's so important because if you look at a Tesla's PE ratio right now, it sits at about 67.6 for this year, okay? That's That's for a Q4 income here. So, it's not a forward PE, it's the current PE. So, if we divide that by 31, we know that this company's trading for a PEG ratio of about 2.18, which is probably a reasonable valuation, although you get companies like Apple that might be trading just above 3%.
You get companies like Costco or not 3% three times on a PEG ratio. You get companies like Costco that are trading above a four PE ratio, and then you have companies like Enphase or Alibaba that are trading much closer to a one PEG. Usually the closer you are to one the better. In the case of Tesla, what we're optimistically hoping for is actually a production target closer to 50%.
Okay, well, take our vehicle uh s- uh deliveries from last year, just over 1.8, multiply them by 1.5 to get 50% growth, we're at 2.7 million vehicles. What's going to be realistic? This is important. This guide matters. Tesla has been relatively accurate with how many vehicles they end up delivering when they make their forecast at the beginning of the year.
So, beginning of every year they make their forecast, and quite frankly, they've been saying 1.8, 1.9, maybe, but it'll be a stretch all of 2023, and they ended up spot-on. 1.82. Okay, great. So, this is a metric, that delivery production delivery and production estimate, is going to be something the market relies on.
The market looks and says, "Okay, if you think you're only going to deliver 2.1 million vehicles." Okay, well, 2.1 divided by 1.82, uh-oh, that would only be 15.3% growth. How do How are you going to grow EPS growth by 30%? Probably not. Valuation collapses, boom, stock goes 175. Be a problem. Do we think it actually has the potential of going all the way back to its floor at the end of December when the world was ending in 2022 at 101?
Unlikely. Something would have to substantially collapse at that level because quite frankly, at 175, you are looking at a company that's uh trading for about 57 uh times on a PE basis basis. Divide that by 30, well, then you'd be at about a 1.9 PEG, under two. Yeah, you know, okay, could it trade there?
Yeah, it could. We don't want to see that happening. Especially if then we unfortunately go in and start revising down EPS growth targets to say 20%. Okay, well, now you're knocking on the door of a three PEG at 175. Not good. So, like the $175 target for Tesla, it's within range, but it's all going to in my opinion come down to two things.
Number one, production and delivery estimates. We're going to talk two in just a moment. What do I actually hope that they announce? And what does Wall Street expect that they're going to announce? And what do other people expect? Well, my opinion, and and this is completely my opinion, okay? So, again, this could be wrong.
But, I think we're going to go for a 2.5. Okay, where does 2.5 put us? Put us? Well, 2.5 divided by 1.82 puts us at 37%. That would be great. If we could get above 2.4, 2.5, ideally, my my target is 2.5. We're looking 37% top line. Can that reiterate that 31% four-year Wall Street expectation for EPS growth?
Yes, absolutely. Now, what is Wall Street currently expecting Tesla to actually deliver? I hate to say it, it's not a good number. Wall Street's current expectation for 2024, and I don't love this number at all, is 2.187 million vehicles. That's only growth of 21%. That's bad. That would not be good.
Is it possible we're going to get a bad number like that? Yes. Could that number, and even though I know know that's expectation, you're still going to get rewriting, okay? Could that number push us to 175 on the stock? Yes. Now, there is sort of a a hedge to this, and it's the idea that a lot of people have seen this estimate, and may have sold the stock down the last time we had a failed breakout.
We had a failed breakout right here at the intersection of the downtrend and the 258 fib. The failed breakout created this approximately 20% drawdown on Tesla stock, really obvious from a technical point of view that the trigger to sell was there. And it makes sense. As you're going into earnings, you tend to get selling.
After earnings, you frequently also get selling, okay? Look at the earnings uh for Q2, stock straight down afterwards. We've kind of already done that move, though. So, could we have more of a Q3 2023 earnings where you go red for a few extra days, and then you have a recovery? Yeah, of course. Anything can happen, because people have to cover their shorts.
There are a lot of people who sell calls, buy puts, or short the stock, who are fundamentally long Tesla, but they're just bearish earnings. So, it is possible you could get a bad report, you get some drama for the next few days around the report, and then slowly, once the pain of that Q4 earnings report is over, you move up.
Entirely possible. Uh but this all comes down to your fair value estimate for Tesla, which of course we'll discuss in this video as well. So, the delivery estimate and production estimate is going to be a big deal. I'm a little devastated that Wall Street thinks the growth will only be 20 per- 20.9%.
That's not great. Other Tesla bulls have also indicated in that direction. Not great. I'm really looking forward to, please, give us 37%. Now, how can that happen? Well, it comes from scaling Berlin and Giga Texas. Okay, great, but Berlin's getting shut down for 2 weeks. Yes. Yes. And that sucks. So, if we go and look at how many vehicles are being delivered at each facility, you can jump in here.
You've got an annual capacity of 375,000 vehicles. 375,000 vehicles as of the end of last year divided by 52 to get a weekly figure is 7,211 vehicles times a 2-week shutdown is a 14,000 vehicle impact. Is a 14,000 vehicle impact for 2 weeks really going to make a massive difference? No. And that's why I'm hoping that Wall Street is actually a little too bearish on the Red Sea drama because the realistic outlook, in my opinion, is the Red Sea drama can go on and Tesla doesn't have to continuously get hurt.
Why is that? Because you reroute your shipments from China around the coast of Africa to get where you got to get to, Germany, okay? The issue is you're going to have this window where as you start rerouting ships the longer way, the way that takes about 30 to 40% longer, there'll be this initial lag.
But once you have all your ships on that route, well, yeah, you should be able to have enough flow of components not to continue to have that delay over and over and over again. Hopefully, and this is what I'm looking for tomorrow. Tesla announces that this is expected to be a one-time delay that a new shipping contract or whatever has been established to prevent any Red Sea drama from continuously affecting their supply chain issues for Berlin.
If they make that announcement, the stock should do better because it would help their ability to estimate a higher production number also go up. Okay. Now, where else do we sit? Where else can we actually get growth from? Well, we don't think we're going to get growth from 950,000 vehicles being produced at Shanghai.
We don't really expect that number to grow much. We don't think we're going to get much production expansion from California, which is 650,000 vehicles. Well, that puts you at about 1.6 million vehicles right now, right? The capacity listed here though, if I add together 375 and I'm going to take off the 14,000 a moment.
And I throw in Texas of Let's go 250,000 for the non-Cybertruck portion. If I throw that number those numbers in, no Cybertruck production, I'm sitting at 2.2 million. If I go take out that 14,000 for the supply chain issue, I'm at 2.2 2.21-ish million vehicles delivered, which basically means zero growth expectations beyond what's listed here for Berlin, Texas, and zero for the Cybertruck.
Okay, so what can we add in? All right, fine. Let's add some stuff in here. Let's say Texas Model Y production pops 75,000. Okay, let's throw 75,000 in. Now, let's throw in 50,000 for year one Cybertruck deliveries. Okay, so year one Cybertruck deliveries, we're going to throw that in at By the way, Wall Street is expecting 63,000, so I don't think I'm terribly off on that.
50,000, let's throw that off. Then what we're going to do is we're going to bump Berlin. We already took off the two-week pain. And I know they don't have the upper carrot here for for more growth, but they should be able to get to 500K next year. I'm going to only add 100,000 though as opposed to a full 125,000.
So, let's add 100K to Berlin. Maybe I'm wrong here. But that gets us to about 2.4 three. So, that would require growth at Texas, Berlin, and maybe a little bit of growth at California and Shanghai to make up the difference to actually get to my target. So, my target's a little optimistic, okay? So, let's write this down.
Kevin's optimistic goal. Uh and again, this is based on which includes we'll write a growth at Texas, uh Berlin, and slight growth in California and Shanghai. Okay, this is just slight growth. We don't need too much there. So, what do we get? Optimistic goal is 2.5. That's 37%. If we just stick with the numbers we just calculated, which would be 2.43, 243 / 1.82, we'd be about 33% growth.
I'd be okay with that as well. So, let's write that down as the optimistic goal, 2433 to 25. We'll write that. Okay? Wall Street is sitting at 2.1, which is not great. Again, we already know that 2.187 to be exact. Uh and then I would probably say Kevin's realistic Kevin's realistic estimate is probably in that 23 to 2.4 range.
If I was Elon, I'd probably be leaning 23 to 24. And so, we're going to be off 50% compounded annual growth because we don't have the next Gigafactory up, right? Unless for some reason we could scale Cybertruck more and actually, rather than just writing in 63,000 or 50K, scale that up to 125. Who knows?
Cybertruck may maybe could be a game-changer, but this is also going to be tough because remember what Elon told us? Don't rely on the Cybertruck to positively contribute to margin for a while. In other words, it's going to be a loss leader, Oh, at least until you get to scale. So, you can kind of see the optimistic estimates are a little hard to support.
Uh it's tough. It's tough right now. So, you're probably in this range right here. Again, 2122, not great. 2324, acceptable because it could support that 30% EPS growth. Okay, what's the next thing that matters? Well, I mean, this is already obvious. I mean, of course, we know talk about version 12 FSD is going to matter.
Of course, we know that talk about robotics and how Elon thinks it's going to be the most valuable company in the world. Like, of course, those things are going to have slight impacts. Of course, talk about Dojo and and all the other ancillary aspects of Tesla are going to contribute to people's emotions.
But, are they actually going to contribute to the stock price? No. Not in my opinion. Not now. Production delivery numbers. Expectations. Where the growth comes from. Like, physical, hard growth. Large growth. That's what we need. Uh okay. So, before I talk about the second item, something else that uh which obviously Red Sea is built into that.
And then, something else before we talk about the second item that'll move the stock uh is Elon's commentary about wanting 25% of the stock to actually continue developing AI. Uh he needs to walk that back, like hardcore. And I think he will. Seeing Elon on his uh apologist tour for uh the impression that people have that he's an anti-Semite, which I want to be clear, I I don't think he is, but he's kind of on this tour of going to, you know, Israel, then he goes to Auschwitz in Poland.
He's with Ben Shapiro. You know, like he's kind of doing the the Jewish tour. Makes me think that he is very aware of people's perception and of of what his uh standing is, right? He's very aware of what people like and don't like about him. That might be why he's seems sometimes to be relatively depressed because he pays too much attention as to what other people are saying about him, but it's probably to some extent also a good thing.
Because I think you're going to get an Elon that comes into this earnings call tomorrow that says, "Hey, look, you know, we we were talking about this uncomfortability. I want to be clear, I'm not threatening to take away the AI uh, from from Tesla, which is obviously a reason people are invested in the stock, you know, the potential for FSD, the potential for Optimus and all of that.
Take rates for FSD. Full self-driving is amazing, okay? I'm on version 11, I'm not on 12 yet, and it'll probably be a year before I ever get 12, but it's okay. Like, it's already so freaking good. Does it need to be, you know, driverless? I mean, it kind of already feels like it is driverless, but, you know, you're there supervising.
I don't really think that's a big deal. I do think they should change the structure in terms of how you sign up for it. You know, 200 bucks a month or $300 a month, 100 of that goes to principal to pay off like actually having FSD for your car, or they should just lower the price of it. Quite frankly, they could also just like include it.
I I know sometimes people hear that and it's like, "Wait, that's going to hurt margin." It all gets built into the end price. But anyway, so um, look, I think Elon's going to substantially walk back the AI drama, and that's going to be a positive for the stock. That is still outside the two main things.
Again, main thing number one, production, which includes Red Sea drama. Main thing number two, we're going to talk about in a moment. But the AI thing, he will walk it back. Just like he's doing the sort of Jewish tour right now, I think he's going to do the tour of expressing how important it is not to let somebody evil take over artificial intelligence because Elon, of course, told us that he's not evil, so of course we should trust him.
Uh, and then you also want to see him reiterate that like, I'm not here to dump the stock or or whatever. Like those things would be useful. Okay. Now, the second thing, this is like really obvious. We already know this. Yeah, it's the M word because this is the year companies are going to take it in the margin.
Now, the expectations for margin, mind you, are are out. We are looking at automotive gross margin expectations for Q 4. Ooh, and I want you to see also or I'll tell you how they're expected to evolve over the next few years. It's actually kind of an interesting number to look at. But automotive gross margin for Q4, the current estimates are that we're going to be at about 18.9.
So, we'll see what happens with that. I think we were at Yeah, we were at 18.7 before that. And the growth of margin, as rates probably start trending down over the next few years or if we enter a recession, rapidly get cut. Margin will probably move with interest rates. In fact, you could kind of see the lag of interest rates right here.
See the first circle at the top left there? That indicates when the Federal Reserve began raising rates. And then the right circle shows you a year later when Tesla's operating margin started getting whacked. This is different from vehicle gross margin. It's just a chart that Tesla has here on operating margin.
Uh and so, even once we start cutting rates, we'll probably have a lag of about a year before margin really starts boosting, but the stock usually starts pricing pricing in a margin gain 18 months beforehand. So, hopefully, we start pricing in that margin gain now. Markets Well, after earnings that is because it's such a negative catalyst.
People have so much uncertainty over what's going to happen tomorrow. When you look at automotive gross margin, you're looking at 18.9 expected for Q1, 19.3 Q2, 19.9 Q4 or sorry, Q3. It gets up to 20.2 Q4. And as I keep going, it basically it looks like Wall Street is pricing in margin growth of somewhere around 30 basis points every quarter.
So, in other words, it's just going to take years for them to climb this margin back. In fact, margin caps out in 2026 at 24% on Wall Street's estimates. That is going to be very, very important. I am worried that obviously we're going to get some kind of margin miss for Q4. I want the bottom to be behind us.
Here you can actually see the GAAP gross margin, which is calculated slightly differently from what the Wall Street estimates are, but what you could see is the lowest gross margin we had right here was in the last quarter. See this consistent decline? 25, 23.8, 19.3, 18.2, 19. 17.9. Just give me something with a one and the eight in the front.
That's it. A one and eight. Please. Show us the bottom is in. I don't know if we're going to get it. But, however much that misses, we'll see. Anyway, those are the two biggest aspects. Now, how does this affect valuation for Tesla? Okay, look. This is the part people care about, right? It's like, when is this freaking company actually going to go up again?
It's been 3 years of this stupid stock trading sideways. Now, that's either a gift that you've been given 3 years to go shop for this freaking stock and buy the dip or we're all idiots. That's entirely possible, too. In fact, any reality is always possible. It's just a matter of what's probable. So, what do we have?
Okay. By the end of 2026. This is important. By the end of 2026, what do we think these vehicles are going to sell for and how many vehicles are we actually going to sell? Well, my estimate, unfortunately, is high relative to what Wall Street thinks. Wall Street thinks we're only going to get to about 3.1 million vehicles.
So, we're going to run this both ways. We're going to run it with my estimate of 3.8, which is actually what Wall Street thinks will happen in 2027. Uh but we'll compare that to uh to, you know, 3.1 in in 2026 in just a moment. But what we're looking for is what do we think these vehicles are going to sell for and what do we think we're going to get uh uh in terms of an average selling price?
Well, Wall Street right now actually holds Tesla's average selling price at roughly 44,000. You can see I'm running it at 42,000. So, we'll do both analyses, okay? We'll come back to this and we're going to change it to 3.1 with 44K. We'll do that in just a moment. But let's do some analysis here. Remember, what we're going to do on purpose here is while we're giving 2% to leases, some service revenue, 10% to energy, I am purposely doing zero for insurance, semis, full self-driving, Tesla robot, third-party FSD, anything else.
I'm not I'm literally not even giving FSD revenue here. I'm going to just underwrite this as a damn car company, like a Toyota, okay? That's what we're going to do. We're just going to underwrite it as Toyota. Okay? If we then take the 2026 margin estimate and we'll take that margin estimate from Wall Street of 22% okay?
That's be 80 uh oh, 78% expense. There we go. 22% margin. We'll do that now. And we're going to move down to what we think the stock price might be. We would end up getting to a 324 stock price. However, if we end up changing margin to, let's say, sticking at 18% for a while, so we'll go 82 over here.
We get to a stock price of about 250. Okay? I want to be very clear about what that means. This means in 2026, the stock basically just goes back to where it was 2 weeks ago as only a car company with kind of crappy margins. In my opinion, like your worst-case scenario is basically where it is now. Is that it's just flat over the next 2 or 3 years.
I I see that as the worst-case scenario. Now, obviously, we could go in here, we can adjust to uh Wall Street numbers. Uh this uh this will really hurt if you go to 44K, but you drop these deliveries to 3.1, and let's go with their margin. So, we'll go with their margin, you get to about 276. Notice how really hurt with their numbers doesn't actually really change the floor, in my opinion, for the stock.
It's still like a 250 to $300 stock. How did we figure that? With a 1.6 PEG ratio on 30% EPS growth. That is what Wall Street is expecting. Okay? This is literally Wall Street's expectation now. 30% EPS growth, totally reasonable for it to sell for 1.6 times PEG. Totally reasonable with their numbers with uh their margin to sit uh with with 45,000 $4,000 in average selling price, 3.1 million vehicles, reasonable to sit at 276.
That's crappy, though, right? Nobody's really investing in this company for for I'm not running an actively managed ETF that has a massive allocation to Tesla for that. Okay? That's because this is like like ignore that this says bull here because I've manipulated so far. It's just stripping everything Tesla out of Tesla, underwriting it like a car company with EPS growing at 30%.
That's it. Well, that's actually not that bad because we know Tesla is way freaking more than that, okay? So, now let's put some like bull hats on, okay? So, we put some bull hats on. And I don't mean no BS either. I mean some enthusiasm here, okay? So, let's say we can actually get margin up another 2%.
Something you're going to notice is 1% margin usually operates or moves you by about $20 per in the stock price. So, every 1% margin improvement they get on their gross margin, it's about $20 in stock price. That's why margin matters so much. But anyway, let's get to uh you know what? Call it call it even 2027, okay?
Let's go 2027. Let's just be patient with it. Change it all to 2027. And we'll leave it at 44K. We'll go 3.8. Honestly, I'm going to go slightly above that. I'm going to go 4.2. We're going to go 4.2 because why not? It's a great number. Actually, no, realistically, I think it should do more than 4.2, but Wall Street thinks 3.8.
I'm going to go 4.2, okay? 4.2 by the end of 2027. But now what we're going to do is we're actually going to start making some freaking money again from FSD. What are we going to do? I want to see $4,000 of revenue per vehicle. How do we do that? It's really actually simple math. All you're doing is going to throw in revenue of basically 10% of the vehicle's price.
Okay? So, multiply that. All right. Okay, here average selling price 44,000. Right, put the times logo in. There we go. 4,400 bucks. Great. Now we have to multiply this by how many vehicles are delivered? 4.2 million. Great. That could add, would you know, just a small 18 billion dollars to this company again.
Okay, fantastic. So we just added 18 billion dollars. What are our expenses on FSD? I threw some, you know, refunds and credits and stuff. Whatever. Nominal. 2%. Big deal. Basically, you're taking it down to about 4K per vehicle as opposed to 4,400 bucks. Honestly, that's probably what it's worth. That's honestly probably what they should be selling it for.
But, and I did this on person on purpose to see if you would catch it. Do we actually think the take rate is going to be 100%? No. The take rate's not going to be 100%. So if the take rate's not 100% and the take rate is actually 25% at $4,000, we're going to drop this to 2.5. Darn. Only gives us another 4.6 billies.
That's okay, though. Take our expenses out. What does that do to the stock? $426 stock. Okay? FSD 4K at a 25% take rate or 4,400 bucks bumps the stock almost $100. See how sensitive this stock is going to be to actually realizing revenue from things that matter? What do you think's going to happen to the stock when they sell their first order of Optimus robots?
Yeah, okay? You just saw what a measly 25% take rate on FSD at four grand does with $4.4 thousand. It's insane. The multiples are what are going to lead to euphoria for Tesla. The problem is right now, nobody prices in any of the other crap at Tesla. The semis, the FSD, the Tesla bot, the AI, cloud computer, whatever.
All of that, the the market, the street gives no value to. And I bet you every single person watching this is like, "Bro, those are the only reasons I'm in this stock because otherwise I wouldn't own a stupid car company." I know. So, point is, like this this is how the stock gets juiced, okay? You pump the margin, that's at 22% by the way.
I think honestly, if we could get back to 25% margin, let's drop this to uh 25% gross margin would be the expense would be about 75%. So, that should give us another 60 bucks right there on the stock. Yeah, 492, that was that was about $60. Uh so, uh now what else do we have? Is there anything else to really be bullish on over the next three uh well, actually it's more like four year well, all of '24, all of '25, all of '26, all of '27.
That's four years. Four years between now and four years, I mean rates are going to be like zero again, right? So, that's why I think you can prop margin up. Uh FSD, maybe the take rate honestly is 50% at $4,000. I really think they got to drop the price. Anyway, move this to uh 5%. Watch what happens.
Look at that. $542 stock, okay? I'm going to leave that at two and a half just because I think that's more realistic. So again, that's a 25% take rate at $4,400. Uh and uh and realistically, you start selling this this Tesla bot uh it it you're you're basically potentially doubling the productive value of Tesla.
So, really, it's kind of like going in here and selling more cars at a high margin. The Tesla bot, I mean depending on what it could do, I think most companies would gladly pay 25 to $50,000 for this. So, it'd almost be like selling another car except it's a little robot, right? And now what? Okay, well, you basically just go in here and you start pricing that in.
What does that look like if we doubled the number of vehicles {slash} bots, assuming the same margin for robots as as uh vehicles? Well, pop it up to 8.4 2027. That's bots and robots at a 25% margin. $1,000 stock. So, that's pricing in bots. Okay? So, you can see how you can manipulate this. I like to consider all of that the icing on the cake.
So, I personally don't really like thinking about numbers like that. I guess it's entertaining because your rate of return over 4 years would be 45% per year if you invest today at, you know, $210. Actually be about 47% per year, every single year compounded for the next 4 years, if you invested. Uh and and this ended up happening.
Okay? Again, we don't know, but once those bots start selling, the market's going to have to start pricing that in and discounting that. And in my opinion, it it's not down. So, I think you're kind of at like one of the worst places for Tesla right now. People are very bearish on this company. From a fundamental point of view, this is like a bottoming process for this company.
Is it really going to matter what they say in terms of production deliveries, whether it's 21 or 22 or 23? Is it really going to matter if the margin is 17 and 1/2 or 18 and 1/2 tomorrow? Over the next 4 years, no, it's not going to matter. Is it going to matter for the stock price movement over the next few weeks?
Yeah. And nobody wants to get margin called. I get it. But nothing in my point of view uh and this is just my personal point of view, it's certainly not financial advice. Nothing in my point of view says flip-flop. Everything in my point of view actually says, "We're on the right path." Because if we go into a recession, rates cut, guess who keeps buying stuff?
Homeowners and white-collar professionals with or blue-collar professionals who who make a lot of money, okay? People with $120,000 plus jobs. Okay? Those are the people buying Teslas, solar panels for their homes, inverters for their homes, they're buying real estate. You're going to see a massive wealth gap.
So, in a weird way, does a potentially uh you know, rapid set of rate cuts via recession potentially help a company like Tesla? Yes. See, Tesla, in my opinion, is recession resilient. However, it is not interest rate resilient. But, recession means interest rates plummet. So, there's a big difference.
I've always said I think Tesla's recession resistant. But, we've just been getting destroyed by rates, not recession. So, uh so, my positioning I It sounds boring, but it continues to be the same. Tesla and Face. Then, we get our chips, our Nvidias, AMDs, TSMCs, Intel as the value chip play. And we move from there.
That's my point of view. I'm sticking with it. Hope you appreciate this insight. I love you all. I wish you all the best of luck. you , if I can paraphrase th.
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