저자: Daniel · 외국인
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팔란티어 1분기 실적은 미국 상업 매출 40% 성장, 거래 수 증가, 가이던스 상향(매출 약 27억 달러, FCF 8~10억 달러)으로 강했으나 주가는 시간외 하락. 발행주식 증가를 감안한 주당 성장률은 약 12% 수준. 시가총액 약 560억 달러로 FCF 대비 약 56배라 밸류에이션 부담이 크다고 지적. 다만 AI 플랫폼 경쟁력과 사업 질 개선은 긍정적으로 평가.
다듬은 글
palente pltr stock just reported their first quarter 2024 results and when I look at the historic financials and the most recent quarter this is all available for free at AI ticker chat at least the historic financials are you can see that their revenue growth in the most recent quarter accelerated their profit margins exploded higher and their diluted share count also increased significantly so broadly I like to see this story of strong growth exploding profit margins uh don't care for the continued uh share growth but that's been a problem and a challenge that I've called out for a while now as we dig into the results you see us commercial Revenue accelerating 40% year-over-year growth 14% on a sequential basis closing over 87 deals in the quarter worth over a million dollars and their Gap profitability so for all those folks saying hey they're making all those adjustments yeah not even not even factoring in stock-based compensation so including that as a real cost which is they're saying hey we are at 13% profit margin so I look at this there's a lot to like here in paler we're going to talk more about their results what do I think about it why is a stock selling off right now if this is your first time tuning in my name is Daniel you're watching unrivaled investing let's Dive Right In so you can understand what's going on with palent here and so you know not only did they report improved results strong results out of argue but they're also raising their outlook for the year talking about around 2.7 billion in revenue for the year and around a billion dollars just shy in free cash flow for the year between $800 million and $1 billion and that's a key metric to think about we'll we'll cover that in a second so that does include significant stock-based compensation but looking at this you know you're talking about around 20% growth a lot of free cash flow strong balance sheet these are things investors like to see and yet the stock is down you know a couple percent after hours it did ramp up significantly during the day you know it's it's up significant ific L since it bottomed uh a little over a year year ago where it previously was trading around $6 a share now it's around 24 $23 a share so why is it selling off following what is arguably strong results so let's let's go through the the fundamentals and then we'll talk about why the stock might be selling off because it's interesting on the one side you see Alex carp talking about like I we crushed it like paland Deere crushed it it's crushing the US results and at the same time the market market like not so much and so let's let's look at this you know is this just Alex KP being Alex karp being overly promotional or is this an aspect of there might be a reason why the Stock's going lower looking at the actual fundamentals the the details that management provides I mean this is incredible what they're showing in US commercial side uh talking about that 40% year over your growth talking about number of deals closed up 94% over the last three years three-year us commercial customer count growth up 12x uh us commercial remaining deal value up 74% so no matter which of these metrics you're looking at very strong us commercial growth very strong representation here and they're showing strong customer quotes you know saying look you know they they've done a number of AI platform boot camps and that's been I I'd argue that's become the main platform that they've been sort of pounding the table on and and the reason why this is important is they're saying hey look AI isn't just these large language models that you know you you can maybe use as a chatbot for your company or maybe you displace customer service but it it's real logic and you could even argue that the models could become commoditized which I really actually enjoyed hearing that that commentary on the call because it aligned with my own thought process that there there is this sort of Race To to build the best model um you know and and if you're not the best you're otherwise commoditized but it's a real the real value is in the application layer which is how do you make sure this model is correctly looking at the data and coming to helpful conclusions with for companies so for example they talk about we're saving about $14 million annually and it's only deed to a part of our Network this is from General Mills you have other companies talking about how uh paler has changed the perception of Technology delivery how fast you can deliver these Technologies and and they gave several you know quotes or references on the call just about how it's not just a chatbot it's about impacting the entire business and I'd argue paler is in the right place at the right time not only from a technological perspective where they're you know eager to roll out their AI platform but providing the tools for Western governments you know where you know folks are saying look let AI make remake the whole US Government oh and save the country and you see you know the first AI War this is really fitting into palente sweet spot of leveraging these tools to help Western de democracies um and I you know I'd argue some of the biggest challenges that the US government faces for example like just overspending having an AI go through the budget one line item at a time and say this you know call it out you know and have an AI willing to do the work that let's say armies of people would struggle with uh could be revolutionary over time so I I'm excited to see tools get rolled out and hopefully help the US government in its spending um so it's it's not only about Warfare It's about you know from a commercial perspective as well that said they do seem to be you know holding their own and winning new contracts from the US government and you know from a Warfare perspective where you know they talked about how during the first quarter they won over $178 million contract for Titan which is a deep sensing capability truck and they during the call management called out that this was actually fairly really special for them to win this contract because it's not often that you see a software type of company winning Hardware related deals so if this you know changes into not only a software Pioneer but a hardware player as well maybe you see uh another dynamic as well where where you know people say wow they're they're bringing to Market tools and uh you know equipment that others just aren't you know I I've privately you know looked at andil as just you know a very interesting company you know where they're talking about making autonomous Jets and things like that and winning these massive contracts so is it possible that paler starts moving into the you know the the specialized Hardware space as well that's a very different business model keep in mind but that can be extremely lucrative as we know from looking at the the folks of like Lockheed and such you know the these Legacy sort of incumbents so the question is well where does paler go from here you know why is it selling off talk about those Dynamics first of all in full disclosure I do not have uh first of all this is not Financial advice I don't personally have a stake in paler uh at this time also quick plug recently aw Woods or excuse me a Woods a premium member of the unraveled investing Community uh commented that thanks to unrivaled investing this is a direct quote I'm currently ahead of my investing goals to retire at age 45 this follows another subscriber who recently added the unrealized profits and he mentions two different stocks that I've called out to my subscribers is enough to cover 302 years of membership that's what i' like to hear and so if you're interested in compelling investment ideas come check out unrivaled investing.com I do expect to be raising prices for the premium tier later this month so lock in the favorable pricing now and so looking at paler using the premium features at AI ticker chat to understand you know the quality of this business using scorecard a recently launched tool the reality is paler is increasingly turning into a higher quality company the quality of the business is improving you see it across their Financial Health their Market position their Outlook Management's alignment this is I'd say the quality of the business is improving and you even see management you know management has never been shy in terms of talking about how great they are and I'd argue they did it again on the most recent quarter saying look I don't believe we have comp competitors so I don't believe in the US market in the commercial Market we have competition I don't believe in the US government Market that we have competition uh he talks about I think that's the reason Ukraine and isra broad our product we are differentiated because in order to actually make AI work you need an ontology and so it really talks about if you're just trying to create a chatbot that is going to be commoditized but if you have the data infrastructure to be able to aggregate this information actually use it and then apply artificial intelligence insights you know then you have a different type of business model and he's saying paler has the tools to make it work and not everyone else does and when I see management say look you know from our perspective the reason why you're seeing this acceleration in our Commercial Business is because we are closer to being unrivaled we don't have those competitors I do like to see that and that does fit with the quality of the business improving and I think a the AI platform is a very big deal for paler the question is okay so Daniel you're you're you're talking like why paler looks great and why these things you know obviously have been working out but why is the stock selling why why is it down a bit after hours and I think it comes down to this key point which is that valuation matters it's not only the free cash flow which is improving at paler it's not only the fundamentals which I'd argue are also improving at paler that third component that three key drivers of returns valuation is a big one and I'd argue investors possibly have gotten ahead of themselves when they're looking at paler CU now it's around a $56 billion company and keep in mind management is guiding to 1 billion in free cash flow so $1 billion free cash flow $56 billion valuation so 56 times forward free cash flow for a company growing 20% sales you know that and keep in mind that 20% sales is actually much lower they're not going to call this out this is why you have to do your own you know think about the numbers and I'm I'm I'm glad to share my own personal Thoughts with you is that you need to look at it on a per share basis and when you adjust for the increase in diluted share count that growth rate is only closer to like let's say 12% so 50 plus times uh free cash flow for you know a company growing let's say somewhere between 10 and 20% a year that's certainly a lot less compelling I personally have called out companies that I've personally bought you know I've called it out to my subscribers at unravel investing in the last few months easily you know you find things where you see the same level of alignment you see you know same level of balance sheet strength you know same conviction that it's unrivaled but actually growing on a share basis let's say over 20% in trading closer to 20 times free cash flow and when you see something or even lower and so when you see something like that versus this you can understand that paler is trading arguably at a very rich valuation and that that is the big challenge that I think investors face right now is that even if you have a quarter that crushes like Alex karp suggests uh the challenge is that these growth rates that I'm assuming and this is a hypothetical framework of course stock price can go way higher way lower these growth rates are on a per share basis which is significantly faster than where the company is right now so they would need to accelerate significantly just to get to this you know this level of growth on a per share basis and you know penciling out let's say 18% growth on a per share basis 25% profit margins I'm giving them a lot more credit in terms of profit margins than historically because I'm very impressed that they managed their cost much better this quarter you know getting to 13 % profit margin so I'm saying hey maybe they can get to 25% in the future 18% growth 25 times earnings 5 years from now gets to 50% downside so that is sort of an ugly sort of downside scenario so if you're a bow and paler you're really saying hey I think it could do a lot better overall I look at palente here and I think this is a AI winner from the fundamental side and I think you are going to continue to see their fundamentals improve free cash flow improve you know Topline improve but just because you have the fundamentals doing well doesn't mean the share price will do very well in the years ahead because valuation matters and if you overpay for something you can have a period where the fundamentals are going up but the valuation coming down resulting in ugly returns or you know treading water for years to come I hope this video talking about palent pltr stock has been helpful for you if so please make point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for tuning in to unraveled investing
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