저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Dell 실적 서프라이즈로 AI 데이터센터 관련 하드웨어가 강세였으나 엔비디아는 근거 없이 하락. Computex 기조연설(젠슨 황)이 반등 계기가 될 수 있다는 기대. 반도체는 금리·AI CapEx 우려로 조정 중이나, 메모리 수요와 증설 지속으로 펀더멘털 약화 근거는 아직 부족하다는 입장. 마이크론 등 대규모 투자 발표가 과잉공급 우려를 낳지만 실제 증산은 수년 걸린다고 설명.
다듬은 글
for the hardware computer space with one of the biggest blowouts I can ever recall. On a day where the Dow jumped 363 points, the S&P advanced 0.22%, the Nasdaq gained 0.21%. Dell with a 102-point gain or 32% one session defined today getting still one more day of tech strength even if we did see some recent winners get hit with a bizarre round of profit-taking at the end of the day.
SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL. DELL'S QUARTER was a true surprise and Michael Dell should be very proud. But there's one great tech quarter after another in May that we saw great results and nearly all of them were connected to the same thing, the data center in some way, shape, or form. Today, away from Dell, we actually saw some stunning strength in a host of software companies that have underperformed of late.
I'm talking about stocks like ServiceNow, Atlassian, Salesforce, Microsoft, all which were simple they gave you some magnificent performances as if nothing were ever wrong with them and they'd been punished almost a whole month. Their gains were in some ways as shocking as the decline of some of the great hardware leaders but in the last few minutes of today's session.
At Dell, they saw incredible strength across all their businesses but the fastest-growing segment came from Dell's partnership with Nvidia, the AI pioneer with a stock that's been a bizarre underperformer of late including today where the company's stock fell four points in the last few minutes of the trading session and finished down an ugly $3.
It was a wild and inexplicable fall for the largest stock in the world. I didn't think it'd collapse so fast on no news. No news at all. Maybe that's a good place to start our game plan then because the week begins on Sunday night when Jensen Huang, the CEO, gives his annual Computex talk in Taiwan.
Maybe something he says could reverse today's inexplicable decline. This year, Jensen plays host with some of his favorite partners including Renee Haas and Arm Holdings. That stock held up. Matt Murphy from Marvell, Intel's Lip Bu Tan. That stock did not hold up. And Qualcomm's Cristiano Amon. Computex has been a stake in the ground really for many years now for Jensen Huang.
And I think he may unveil something special here. Now, why do I feel that way? We got a potential hint when Nvidia's official X account posted a cryptic tweet teasing quote a new era of PC. The account for Microsoft Windows posted the same message. Gras means straws doing everything I can for you. Maybe what we saw in late day trading was some sort of end of the month rebalancing out of some semis and into depleted
The S&P 500? Yeah, you know, there there's not much um sort of interest rate sensitivity specifically for where the trajectory of earnings has been concentrated in that broader AI space. Arguably, you do potentially run into problems as you go down into the smaller companies that have less earnings or maybe don't have earnings at all and struggle to pay interest payments.
So, I think we'll see some differentiating at the cap level to some degree depending on what rates do. But, the most important thing for the equity market is not simply just a move by the Fed toward tighter policy. It's the speed that they have to tighten policy that matters. If the Fed wants to move to a tighter stance, can take a slow escalator up and move slowly with rate hikes versus if they have to take a fast elevator up.
The the former is a much better backdrop for equities. What has happened in the past though in the lead-in to the first rate hike, cyclicals tend to do well. We're seeing that now. But, once the Fed does start hiking, you tend to see a little bit more of a focus on defensives. So, that's just another way to think about market dynamics as we approach the potential for a tighter Fed.
And when you mention AI, I want to have a conversation about CapEx cuz obviously there's a huge driver right now. I mean, as I'm looking at Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, each growing their CapEx by about 70% year-over-year in 2025, as you look at that, Lizanne, are we seeing the markets basically giving these management teams a blank check for AI infrastructure, or are you starting to see now that investor patience is is beginning to wear thin?
I think there are starting to be concerns that creep in, and I think that helps to explain the what I've been calling the great chip dip recently. And it's around a a confluence of things, some of which is shown here. You know, the amount of capital that is consumed from a capital spending standpoint is significantly higher than the profit contribution, as you see the share of net income, and this is relative to the S&P 500.
So, that gap is something to be mindful of. You also have increasing number of companies, just corporate enterprises, saying that they may have to start to consider pairing back on some of the spend because we're not yet fully seeing the concrete nature of either productivity benefits, or in the case of those capital spending giants, the return on invested capital.
So, I don't think we're in anything resembling lookout below, but those concerns are starting to creep in, and I think there's a more discerning eye on a lot of these data points. And what and what's your thoughts on that narrative that we start to see some of this CapEx spending slow down if we don't soon see monetization backing it?
I I think you will start to hear maybe more than just anecdotal stories of kind of weighing the pros and cons of a continued massive AI spend, even with you know, the price of tokens coming down, the spend is still significant. One interesting way to think about it, though, and I've had conversation with conversations with corporate leaders, is they're starting to say, "At what point do we look at the cost of human capital as now being relatively inexpensive?
So, uh if if we think about the concerns about the disruption to the labor force associated with AI, there may be some benefit there. We need to talk about why the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks may be creating opportunities, but also why investors should not blindly assume that every pullback is automatically a buying opportunity.
Because under the the surface of the technology sector, something important has changed. The stocks that lead the market higher for the months has started experiencing a violent correction. Memory stocks pulled back and semiconductor equipment companies declined. Momentum strategies experienced one of their sharpest short-term reversal in the years.
And suddenly, investors who were worried about the missing the AI rally are now worried that the entire semiconductor cycle may be approaching its peak. But when we look beyond the stock prices and examine what is actually happening inside the industry, the situation become much more interesting. still expanding.
Memory demand remain extremely strong and hyperscalers continue to investing. Semiconductor companies are increasing production capacity. New AI models continue launching and growing. So, the question investors need to answer is not whether the semiconductor stock can experience correction. Of course, they can.
The real question is whether the fundamentals growth supporting this those stocks is beginning to weaken. But right now, I don't think we have enough evidence to say that. Let's start with Micron. Micron recently announced significant increase in its long-term investment plan for company is preparing to invest enormous amount of capital over the next decade to expand memory production and to strengthen the supply chain.
Normally, this type of announcement would make memory investors nervous because the memory industry has a long history of destroying shareholders value through over investment. Prices increase and margin expands, manufacturing become optimistic and companies build new factories. Supply increases and eventually the market become oversupplied.
Prices collapse and the margin disappears. The stock get crushed. That's the historical memory cycle. That's exactly why investors are nervous today. Micron is making enormous profit. Samsung is making enormous profit. SK Hynix is benefiting from extraordinary demand for high bandwidth memory. And all three companies are investing in additional manufacturing capacity.
So, the investors naturally asking whether the today's shortage is creating tomorrow oversupply. But there is an important difference between announcing a new manufacturing capacity and actually producing additional memory. Semiconductor factories take years to build. Companies need to clean rooms, manufacturing equipment, raw silicon wafers, advanced capacity, highly skilled workers, customers qualifications, and enormous amount of capital.
Even after construction is completed, companies cannot immediately produce billions of dollars worth of advanced memory. Production need to be ramped gradually. Yield rates need to be improved and customers need to test the product. And supply chain need to adjust. That's why Micron investment timeline is extremely important.
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