저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테리 스미스 펀드의 13F 공시를 바탕으로 TXN(텍사스 인스트루먼트)과 FTNT(포티넷)를 분석. TXN은 밸류에이션(포워드 PER 약 37)이 높고 잉여현금흐름 배당성향 등 적신호가 있어 내재가치 166달러 대비 고평가로 판단. FTNT는 ROIC·영업이익률·성장성이 우수하고 DCF 내재가치 76달러로 TXN보다 선호. 두 종목 모두 월가 목표가 대비 상승여력이 작다고 언급.
다듬은 글
every quarter investment managers who control over $100 million in assets need to file a 13f form listing out their Equity assets and this is a regulatory requirement set out by the SEC now today we are focusing on the movement of Terry Smith's fund Smith portfolio that did just release their Holdings and their movements just today now we're going to focus on the two large buys which have cost him around $240 million but we can see he has made some notable sales for example reducing by around 18% mccormic and Company Microsoft by around 6% and church and Dwight by around 3 and A2 as we mentioned though today we are looking straight at the buys and the first one we're looking at is Texas Instruments where he's added 39% and added around 433,000 shares now as we can see Texas Instruments ticker symbol txn is trading right now at the upper end of the 50 2 we range it does have a triple hold pretty rare to see on the channel by Seeking Alpha Wall Street and qu and we do notice it has a yield 2.64% but we would argue trades at a fairly lofty valuation 37.3 on a forward P perspective now over the last year it is up around 16% if you're a long-term shareholder well over the last 10 years you would have significantly outperform the S&P up around 310% now looking at how they've performed in their latest earnings well what we like to do is look at their historical performance that does give us faith that they will be able to hit their future projections but what we in fact noticed over the last four quarters they have missed two of the four so they have a 50% track record with the more recent quarter being a Miss by around 2 cents now over the next quarter Q3 they are anticipating negative 24% year- on-year EPS movement and we can see the same negative over the next quarter so we do get to q1 where see the first Positive Growth as well as Q2 now if they do hit their 2025 EPS estimate the forward P will come to around 30 You could argue moving towards a more reasonable valuation but still bear in mind the S&P right now trades at around 22.5 now in terms of the company the underlining metrics just before we get to our own valuation we have a score of 80 making it safe and they did increase that dividend 4.8% last September not the greatest marginally above inflation at 4% but this does alert us to the fact that we are anticipating an increase to come over the next few weeks now it was just reaffirmed in fact last week this safety score which ultimately means for those that are worried about the dividend a dividend cut is unlikely on this channel as always key recess metrics from the Great Recession 079 they in fact increased the dividend they had massive below average growth - 27% remember the S&P is around -12 and they under formed 59% with the S&P coming in at - 55 another reason not just the inflation reason why we were disappointed with the increase last September but historically over the last five and the last 20 years txn has been increasing that dividend at a double digit rate one thing to note though they have 20 years of consecutive increases five more years before they become a dividend Aristocrat and they have been paying a dividend for the last 62 without a reduction now as always we look at dividend yield theory for the undervaluation signal in today's episode we get a bit of an overvaluation as the yield of 2.64 is below the 2.77 average and in fact a double overvaluation signal 34 forward P versus the 5year average of 24 and in fact we can see it is much higher than the information technology of 25.3 we also point to the free cash flow payout below 50% for this industry the semiconductors now the main reason why we don't look at the earnings it is susceptible to manipulation by management through accounting but also you wouldn't be able to spot any potential dividend cut or any issues just look at this in 2023 338 indicates to us that management paid out a significant amount more in dividends than they generated in free cash flow that is a red flag indicator another red flag indicator here over the next 12 months expected to be very high as well so we wouldn't be surprised if we see a very small increase to the dividend next month then free cash flow share we do want consistent increases over the longer term something we see from 2014 to 2022 they'll see a massive drop into 2023 nice to report though it is expected to Kickstart back up to the right direction to 237 over the next year we then move on to the sales growth where we want to see a minimum of 3 to 7% now yes the semiconductor industry as a whole is cical so no surprises that we see two years a negative but unfortunately that more recent year of 2023 does see a negative 133% drop to the Top Line But ultimately it has increased when you zoom out 13 billion in 2014 to 17.5 in 2023 what they've also done through those share BuyBacks is return excess cash to your pockets 1.08 billion shares outstanding in 2014 917 in the more recent quarter always a great sign ultimately giving you a larger portion of control of the company you're invested in we then move on to roic very important metric 10% or more give us Faith 12 or more for semiconductors now it has been very strong on a year-on-year basis but we do notice one of the lower years out of the last 10 at 25% in 2023 and on a trading 12-month basis down to 19% something to bear in mind and maybe include into your own investment thesis and that margin of safety percentage we then move on to the operating margin 16% or more that is what we get and we always want to see here not just increasing revenues but operating efficiency on a year-on-year basis basis and we can see up until 2022 very very good free cash flow margins a free cash flow machine does drop very significantly into 2023 but still we can see it is above that minimum 5% we want to achieve for the companies we invest in then we get to the net debt to ebit DAR the last one before we key Point here is that this essentially correlates to both dividend safety and balance sheet strength below 1.5 is what we want to see that is what we get every single year 37 so this is the number of years it would take txn to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand .54 a small increase over the next 12 months but we can see here a very strong balance sheet and ultimately we understand why that dividend does look to be safe but we do also have concerns with the very high free cash flow payout now ped so how we got to our intrinsic value of $166 we ran it through our valuation model which you can grab a copy in the pin comments below and we ultimately got the average of these three to get to this level now what we notice here it is significantly lower than the current price as well as wall Street's Target price so what we would say in our opinion based on our own estimates and judgments we believe this company is trading well above its intrinsic value now what we like to do on this channel is add a margin of safety and we start off with 10% execute on that if it meets the so ultimately this wouldn't even be one we'd consider unless it came to $150 and that would be with a 10% MOS a lot of people would want a lot more and so would we at 15% buy at 140 at 20% around 133 so as we mentioned right now we see it trading significantly higher than its intrinsic value and Wall Street even though they do believe that the price target of $200 is correct which is well above our intrinsic value given the share price today at1 196 they ultimately only see 2% upside hence why we did see at the beginning a triple hold right across the analyst expectations as always let us know your thoughts about these companies today before we jump into the next stock just to let you know if you want access to this or any others you can click on the pin comment below sign up and read straight away and we have also released our 35 undervalued stocks for the month of August where we also talk about those that sit within our own portfolio and ones that we are looking to buy the next stock we're looking at is foret ftnt where he has added 26% in buying 2.11 Million worth of shares and we can see this is a company that currently trades around $71 with a strong buy from Quant something similar to a triple hold that we saw previously is fairly rare a buy from Wall Street and a hold from seeki alpha now this one does trade towards the upper end of of the 52e range a forward P around 35 and not one that does currently pay a dividend now over the last year it is up around 20% if you've been a shareholder over the last 10 years phenomenal performance up 1,300% significantly outperforming the SNP now in terms of their performances well very nice to report they have beaten the last four quarters expectations 100% track record with some nice growth anticipated over the longer term now if they do hit that 2025 estimate the forward P will come down although marginally to around 32.3 so in terms of their metrics beautiful site to see here with the free cash flow consistent increases over the longer term expected to increase Again by around 10% over the next 12 months and when we do look at the sales growth pretty much double digit every single year so we can see this is a company that is still growing historically at a very good rate which is ideally what we want from the growth companies that do trade at a bit of a Hefty valuation in comparison to say the S&P or any other more mature companies numerically speaking as well their total sales does look very good increasing by around six times over the last 10 years and we can see shares outstanding overall they have essentially done a net share buyback but we can see some periods where they do share dilution over the longer term nice to see though those share BuyBacks and ultimately we can see a very strong share price return over the last 10 years roic probably the best we have ever seen on this channel 203% in 2023 120 last year and on a trading 12mth basis 106 absolutely phenomenal I would be interested to know if you think there are any others that would come anywhere close straight off the bat we can say Nvidia doesn't come anywhere near operating margin as well we' love to see this operating efficiency 7% in 2014 23 in 2023 expected to be higher given the trading 12 month at 26% and the free cash margin something we wanted txn to be we can see consistently very strong every single year including 2023 so an absolute free cash flow machine and net debt ebit Dar the model student here zero right across the board over the last 10 years over the next 12 months won't even take them one day to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand definitely a company we do like indeed now in terms of our intrinsic value we have just used the DCF model at $76 and how we got to this price while we ran it through the DCF model we have the free cash flow year on-ear the average growth rate around 31% now as we said over the next year anticipating 10% and we can ultimately see over the last 10 years 10% will have been the lowest rate so we do believe this to be extremely reasonable with the discount rate at 8% we fd value divide by shares outstanding and as we can see here that $76 mark as always if you don't agree with any of these numbers or you want to put your own whether it's for foret or others you can grab a copy of the model below straight away as well we can see similar to Texas Instruments Wall Street see very minimal upside they have a 2% Target at a price Target in fact of $73 although we did see qu give this a strong buy again we will use our margin of safety but at that 10% level you would have to wait for around $68 at 15% around 64 and at 20% around 61 right now as we can see you are only getting a 5% margin of safety and probably not one that we would be looking to buy at that rate but it does have some phenomenal underlining metrics definitely the company that we do like more as opposed to Texas Instruments at this point in time with the valuation as always let us know your thoughts in the comments below if you enjoyed thi as they drop and don't forget to click and also if you want to discuss our weekly buys and sells do and join us in the patreon
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