저자: AndriiMakakhov · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오 Bridgewater의 최신 13F에서 주요 매수 종목 5개를 소개. 알리바바(평가가 싸고 매출 성장 재가속, 바이백으로 상승 여력 제시), 금(포트폴리오 균형용으로 보유 이해하나 개인적으로 선호 낮음), 부킹홀딩스(사업모델 AI 위협 우려로 매수 보류), 바이두(성장 둔화·예측가능성 낮아 매수 안 함, 구글은 보유), 서비스나우(SaaS 고성장·고마진, PSR 16 vs 중간값 12이나 고품질 기업 강조) 순. 달리오 포지션 외 개인 포트폴리오 보유 관점도 일부 언급.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio, the founder of the biggest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates with assets under management north of $170 billion, finally filed a 13F. This is very important to every investor to keep track what super investors are buying and selling. And in this video, I will share with you five biggest buys from Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates in the latest quarter.
What's going on investors? Hopefully guys are doing well out there. While US indexes were experiencing volatility and S&P 500 almost entered a bare market territory with minus 19% Ralo was unfolding his cash and buying that dip. Let's see exactly what is his largest buys. The largest buy for Ray Dalio is Alibaba Group and he increased the position for 2,000%.
His average buy for Alibaba was $17.63 per share. Alibaba with a large ecosystem with Chinese e-commerce and also wholesale with Alibaba cloud with international e-commerce presented by AliExpress, Lazada, Taras, Miraavia and also wholesale with Alibaba.com. They also have logistic networks Tanyao. They also have food delivery network.
They also have maps similar to Google maps. In addition, they have digital medtainment stuff similar to YouTube and also others. So Alibaba has a really large ecosystems of products. In terms of the revenue growth, Alibaba was a very fast growing company until 2021. Then the growth decelerated in 2023.
And now we are starting to rebound and based on the energy projection from 2025 to 2027. The revenue growth will reacelerate from 6% to north of 10%. So so it's basically almost doubledigit percentage revenue growth for Alibaba Group. In terms of the profitability, operating income keep growing with some kind of chop.
It's not really stable, but keep growing. And from 2015 increase from $3.7 billion to 2024, north of $19 billion. So this is more than 6x operating income. Incredible. Alibaba is a top four player by market share in terms of the cloud after AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. In terms of the valuation, currently Alibaba is trading very cheap with medium price to earnings of 23 and currently Alibaba is trading at 13 price to earnings.
And at some point in 2023, 2024 and 2025, the price to earnings ratio for Alibaba was single digit. In terms of the valuation model with relatively conservative assumptions with the revenue of 7% then decelerating to 5% just to be conservative this is actually more conservative than analysts are expecting from Alibaba with the net income margin keeping stable at 15% and PE multiple uh of 15 with dividend of 1.34% and buybacks north of 8% because currently Alibaba is very cheap so they have a huge buyback.
So if the shares will be continue trading at the cheap valuations like right now delipo will continue be able to buy 8% of the shares per year with this kind of assumptions we are getting 94% of upside in the next 5 years or or almost 15% keer coming to the second big buy of radalo and this is actually not a company this is gold as you know radalo is big fan of gold gold is up significantly year to date almost 20% but radalio always keep gold in a portfolio when gold is running too much up he would sell the gold and buy some equities or if equities is running too much up he will sell the equities and purchase the gold so this is a strategy of balancing portfolio from Ray Dalio for me I'm not as fan of gold as Ray Dalio for me I would love to own companies who produce real free cash flow who increase their margins who in improve their mood and competitive advantages and we're moving to the next buys of Ra Dalio and this is booking holdings He purchased Booking with the average price of $3.7,000 per share and increased deposition of 112%.
Now Booking Holdings is taking 1.43% of Bridgewwater's portfolio. Booking is basically a traveling company. They are helping people to book the hotels. They are taking the cut of 10 to 25%. They also have search and visibility fees where hotels pay more for top search placement. They also have travel services, attractions, experiences and B2B travel tools.
Booking holdings has very high margins with gross margin reaching almost 90% and also free cash flow margin is reaching 35%. Booking is buying back significant amount of shares. The buyback is not actually stable. Sometimes they are buying more and sometimes they are buying back. They are trying to buy back when they believe that shares are trading cheap in the market.
And currently this is leading to significant decrease in shares outstanding from 49 million shares to 32.7 million shares as for latest 12 months. From the perspective of valuation model currently booking is growing relatively slowly 7% year-over-year with net income margin of 25% and PE multiple keeping stable at 23 with small dividend and buybacks of 4%.
We see the upside for the next 5 years of 47% or 8% keer. I believe this website is not very juicy for me. In addition, I'm not very confident in booking's business model because they are most of the money they are making from all those fees when people is coming to the booking.com and booking directly from the website.
What happens after AI revolution when every grandmother and grandfather is using AI agents book the hotels to book the cars and stuff. So in this case probably perplexity chat GPT will be partnering with booking.com to leverage the ability to book. But I am not 100% confident in that. So I'm not touching booking at these prices.
If you're enjoying the video so far, please consider subscribing to the channel. On my channel, I do company fundamental analysis. I run public YouTube portfolio to outperform the market. I do investing educational videos. If any of that interests you, welcome to join. That's been said, let's continue with the video.
Fourth company in the list is another Chinese giant BU increased his position almost by 10x and currently BU is taking 0.89% 89% of the portfolio. BYU is basically Google of China. They are doing search. They are doing ads. They also have cloud and AI. They they are building BS. They have a cloud services.
They the revenue is growing but not extremely rapidly. This is already mature company. From 2015 to 2024 the revenue just doubled. So this is a double in 10 years relatively slow. From the perspective of EPS is all over the place. Sometimes it jump higher, sometimes it jump lower. The predictability of financials for this company is relatively complicated.
From the perspective of PE, the company is trading dirt cheap. Of course, the medium PE of 18 and currently the company is trading at single digits at a PE of 9. For me, I'm not buying BU here. I think BU and Google are experiencing similar risks with the new AI revolution and stuff. In my portfolio, I hold Google.
This is a core foundational position for me. top two position in public YouTube portfolio for by do I did not enter the position and not planning to enter anytime soon. Fifth position radal purchase and this is service now. He increased the position by 300% and currently service now is taking 0.87% of the bridgewaters portfolio.
Service Now has IT workflows. It automates IT services, help desk, incident management. Also it has employee workflows, customer workflows, creator workflows and now platform. I believe that for service now AI is kind of a tailwind. They will be able to build a lot of agents and automation for the enterprises.
From the perspective of revenue, this is a software as a service company and this revenue growth is as brilliant as it gets. From 2015, they increased the revenue from $1 billion to in the latest 12 months to 11.5 billion. And in December 2027, the expectation for the revenue is almost $19 billion. Absolutely amazing.
From the perspective of free cash flow, similar picture from 230 million to in the latest 12 months 3.6 billion. And this exponential growth will continue based on the end expectations. The margins for this company is absolutely brilliant with a gross margin north of 80% free cash flow margin north of 32% and net profit margin coming from the negative in 2015 to currently to the positive 13%.
This is the operating leverage you want to see from the perspective of valuation for this company which is not fully optimized for profits. We are looking to the price to sales and currently the medium price to sales is 12 and currently service now is trading at price to sales of 16. Buying the high quality company with the low valuation will provide you significantly higher returns than buying the good company with a richer valuation than average.
And here you have it. I hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, make sure to subscribe to the channel. I appreciate your time watching all the way until the end of the video. That's all for now. I will see you in the next one.
Comments 0