저자: AndriiMakakhov · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 팔란티어에 풋옵션 베팅을 했지만 실적은 매우 강함(2026년 1분기 매출 +85%, 조정영업이익률 60%, 가이던스 상향). 다만 PER 약 200배로 밸류에이션 부담이 크다는 것이 핵심. 발행자는 가격이 비싸 추가 매수는 주저하지만 PER 하락 시 추가 매수 고려 중이며, 5년 모델링 시 약 378% 수익을 제시. 최종적으로 훌륭한 기업이나 현 가격에선 추격 매수가 어렵다는 결론.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry is betting big against Palantir. This is the guy who became famous for calling housing bubble before almost everyone else. So, when Burry bets against one of the hottest AI stocks in the market, investors pay attention. But here is the crazy part. Palantir just reported one of the strongest software earnings report I have ever seen.
Revenue is exploding. Margins are insane. The company is profitable and management is raising guidance again. So, this creates a very strange situation. Burry is betting against the stock, but the business looks better than ever before. So, the real question is not just is Palantir overvalued? The real question is Burry seeing something the market is ignoring?
Or is he just about to get crushed by one of the strongest AI companies in the world? That's what we're going to find out because Palantir may be an incredible company, but at the wrong price, even an incredible company can become a terrible investment. Let's get into it. Michael Burry is an investor from The Big Short.
He became famous because he saw the housing bubble before almost everyone else. But predicting one bubble doesn't mean you can predict every bubble. And Burry has also had difficult calls before. For example, he had a large bearish options bet against Tesla in 2021, but later exited the trade. He also made bearish bets against S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in 2023, and the market continued higher after that.
So, with Palantir, we should not just blindly say Burry is short, so the stock is going to zero. First, we need to understand what's he actually betting against. Now, let's talk about what Burry actually did. This part is very important because a lot of people misunderstood the headline. When 13F came out, many headlines said Burry had $912 million bet against Palantir, but that was not really the amount of money he spent.
The SEC filing showed put options on Palantir representing 5 million shares with reported value of $912 million. But, later Burry clarified the math himself. He said he bought 50,000 put option contracts for $1.84 each. Each option contract controls 100 shares. So, 50,000 contracts * 100 shares means exposure to 5 million shares.
But, the actual premium he paid was around $9.2 million, not $912 million. And according to his clarification, there were $50 strike puts expiring 2027. So, in simple English, Burry just bought the right to sell Palantir stock at $50 in 2027. That means he does not just need Palantir to fall a little.
He needs a very big move lower for this trade to work extremely well. Now, one more important point. We don't know if he still holds the exact same position today. So, we cannot say with 100% certainty what he owns right now. But, based on the last public information, the message was clear. Burry was betting against the AI hype around Palantir.
Now, the question is, is he right? To answer that, we first need to understand what Palantir actually does. Because Palantir is not a normal software as a service company. It's not like Adobe where you pay for Photoshop, or it's not like Salesforce where sales teams use CRM sheets. And it's not like monday.com where teams manage tasks and projects.
Palantir is much more complex. In very simple words, Palantir helps governments and companies connect their data, understand what's happening, and make better decisions. The company has a few major platforms. Gotham is mostly used by governments, defense, intelligent agencies, and national security organizations.
Foundry is mostly used by commercial companies. This helps companies bring together messy data and many different systems and turn it into something useful. Apollo helps deploy Palantir software across different environments. And then we have AIP, which is the artificial intelligence platform. This is where the AI story becomes very important.
AIP helps companies use large language models and AI agents inside the real business operations. And this is the key difference. A lot of AI tools can answer questions, but Palantir is trying to connect AI to real workflows. For example, a manufacturer can use Palantir to understand supply chain issues.
A hospital system can use it to improve operations and defense organization can use it to analyze mission-critical data. A company can use AIP to take messy internal data, connect it with AI models, and then actually make decisions inside the business. So Palantir is not just selling dashboards, it's not just selling data visualization, it's trying to become the operating system for decision-making inside governments and large companies.
That's why bulls are so excited. But now let's look at the latest earnings report, because this is where the bull case becomes very strong. Palantir latest earnings were absolutely insane. In Q1 2026, revenue grew 85% year-on-year to $1.63 billion. That's really high growth for the company already doing billions of dollars in annual revenue.
US revenue grew 104%. US commercial revenue grew 133% and US government revenue grew 84%. The company closed 206 deals worth at least $1 million. 72 deals worth at least $5 million and 47 deals worth at least $10 million. And the profitability is even more impressive. Adjusted operating margin was 60%.
Adjusted free cash flow margin was 57%. That's absolutely ridiculous for the company growing this fast. Usually when the software company grows this quickly, it burns cash or margins are weak or profitability is years away. But Palantir is growing like a hypergrowth company while already showing elite profitability.
That's why bulls are excited. And then management raised guidance again. For the full year 2026, Palantir now expects revenue of roughly 7.65 to 7.66 billion dollars. That would be around 71% growth for the full year and US commercial revenue is expected to grow at least 120%. So if you only look at the business momentum, it's very hard to be bearish.
This is one of the strongest growth stories in the market. But investing is not only about business quality, it's also about price. And this is where Burry's argument starts to make more sense. Now let's talk about the bear case. And the bear case is very simple. Palantir is not a bad company. The risk is that the stock may already be too expensive.
The first risk is valuation. When a stock trades at a very high multiple, the company has to keep delivering perfect results. Revenue must keep growing fast. Margins must stay high. Guidance must keep going up and the AI story must stay strong. If even one of these things disappears, the stock can fall hard.
The second risk is stock-based compensation. Palantir is profitable, which is great, but the company still pays employees a lot of compensation using their own stock. That can dilute shareholders over time. So investors need to watch how much of the free cash flow is really going back to shareholders.
The third risk is government contracts. Palantir has a strong government business. That can be a moat, but it also creates a risk. Government budgets can change, political priorities can change, and large contracts can take time to renew. So, this is the bear case. Palantir may be an amazing company, but the stock is already priced like everything will go right.
And that's why Burry may be betting against it. Now, let's look at the other side. Why could Burry be wrong? The first reason is that Palantir may actually be one of the few real AI software winners. A lot of companies are adding AI features. Palantir looks different. Palantir is not just saying, "We have AI." Palantir is turning AI into real enterprise workflows.
And that is what companies actually need. They do not need just chatbots, they need AI connected to their own data, their own processes, their own security rules, and their own decision-making systems. That's exactly where Palantir is strong. The second bull case is speed of adoption. The growth in US commercial revenue is mind-blowing.
If US commercial revenue can keep growing at a very high rate, then Palantir's business mix could shift more toward commercial customers over time. That could make company less dependent on government. And it could dramatically increase total addressable market. The third bull case is profitability.
This is not a company burning billions of dollars of cash over time. Palantir is already profitable. Margins are very high. Free cash flow is strong. The balance sheet is clean. So, the company has a lot of financial flexibility. The fourth bull case is that Palantir may be building the new software category.
This is very important. Sometimes the market looks at a company and says, "Valuation is crazy." But then, the company creates a much bigger category than investors expected. That happened with Amazon. That happened with Tesla for a period. That happened with Nvidia. And bulls believe Palantir could be the same type of story for AI software.
Not just another SaaS tool, but a new operating layer for AI inside governments and enterprises. The fifth bull case is execution. Alex Karp is very unusual CEO. Some investors love him, some investors hate him. But the one thing is very clear. Palantir is executing extremely well right now. The company is growing faster than ever expected.
It's profitable. It's raising guidance and it has a very strong narrative. So if Palantir keeps beating expectations, the stock could stay expensive for a long time. This is why shorting a company like Palantir can be very dangerous, even if valuation looks insane, because expensive stocks can become even more expensive when the business momentum is this strong.
Now, let's compare Palantir to other high-growth software companies, because one of the biggest question is this, is Palantir actually more expensive than other SaaS stocks? Or does the growth justify the premium? To make this simple, I will compare two things. First, expected EPS growth, and second, forward PE.
Because if Palantir is growing much faster than everyone else, maybe the high valuation makes sense. But if the valuation is too high, even compared to the growth, then bearish argument becomes stronger. First, let's look at expected EPS growth. And here, Palantir looks very strong based on the estimates I collected, Palantir is expected to grow EPS by 95% next year, then 41%, then 42%, then 55%, and 46%.
That's extremely strong. Snowflake is also expected to grow fast, but not as fast as Palantir. CrowdStrike, Shopify, DataDog, and ServiceNow are also growing, but Palantir is clearly at the top of the table from the growth perspective. So if we only look at the expected growth, both have very strong argument.
Palantir really does look like one of the fastest growing company in the group, but growth is only one side of the story. Now, we need to look at what investors are paying for that growth. Now, the same table changes from expected growth to forward PE, and this is where the story becomes more interesting.
Palantir is trading at around 93 times next year earnings, then 66 times, 47 times, 30 times, and then 21 times. So, if these estimates are correct, Palantir's valuation compresses very quickly, and this is exactly why the stock is so hard to analyze. On one side, Palantir looks very expensive today, but on the other side, if the company really grows earnings this fast, then the future PE starts to look much more reasonable.
Now, compare this with CrowdStrike. CrowdStrike has lower expected EPS growth than Palantir, but a much higher forward PE in almost every future year. DataDog is also trades at very high forward PE relative to its expected growth. ServiceNow is the opposite. ServiceNow is growing slower, but it's already trading at much lower forward PE.
So, the table does not give us a simple answer. It actually shows the real debate. Palantir may look expensive today, but if estimates are right, the stock may not be as crazy as the headline valuation suggests. Now, let's simplify everything into one final table. Average expected EPS growth for next year and for 5 years in the future.
Palantir has the highest average expected EPS growth in the group, around 56%. But, it also starts at very high forward PE multiple of around 93. So, 5 years later, that drops to around 21. So, this is a key takeaway. Palantir is priced for a lot of but if the company actually delivers the expected earnings growth, the valuation could become much more reasonable over time.
That's why the stock is so controversial. The bear case is that expectations are too high. The bull case is that the growth is real and the valuation will shrink into the business. So now let's stop talking in theory and actually run the numbers because Palantir can be the great company, but the real question is what return investors can expect from the price.
For that, I will use Investopedia to build a simple 5-years projection. As per Palantir guidance, the revenue 2026 will be growing 75% and then I have deceleration to 50% until 2030. This is actually more conservative than Seeking Alpha analyst. For the net income margin, currently Palantir has 36% net income margin and I project 40% because the company will optimize for profitability and currently Palantir trades at 200 PE and I will expect 100 PE in 5 years because if the company still grows 50% with 40% net income margins, I believe 100 PE is actually relatively conservative for the company.
With these projections, we get 378% mind-blowing return for Palantir in 5 years. So the real question here, do you believe that Palantir can grow 50% for the next 5 years or you believe the revenue will decelerate significantly in 5 years? This is the real question bulls and bears are debating. So my final verdict is simple.
Palantir is an amazing company. The growth is strong, margins are incredible, the AI story is real and management is executing very well, but the valuation is the risk. At this price, Palantir is not valued like a normal software company. It's valued like everything will go almost perfectly. And that's where investors need to be careful.
If growth slows even a little or if the AI hype cools down, the stock can fall hard. But at the same time, Burry can still be wrong because expensive stocks can stay expensive for a long time. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So for me, Palantir is a great company, but at this price, it's very difficult stock to chase.
But if Palantir multiple continue to compress, I will seriously consider adding to my position. The full disclosure, I have a position in Palantir with cost basis of $17. I was not buying more recently while the price-to-sales multiple was north of 200. But recently, the multiple is compressing and based on our projection, the stock can still give mind-blowing returns in the next 5 years if everything goes well.
Let me know in the comments if Burry right about the Palantir or is he shorting one of the biggest AI winners too early. .
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