Why Is AMD Stock Falling, and is it a Buying Opportunity? | AMD Stock Analysis

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AMD 실적은 매출 24%, 영업이익 155% 증가로 양호했으나 데이터센터 성장률이 전년 94%에서 69%로 둔화되며 실망 매물 발생. 엔비디아 대비 열위와 인텔과의 비교 우위가 공존. 선행 PER 17.5배로 1년 내 저점 수준이며 DCF 적정가 $180 대비 현재 $19(표기 기준 오기 가능성)로 저평가 주장. 결론적으로 현 하락을 매수 기회로 판단.

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01. AMD reported quarterly Financial results that disappointed stock market investors the stock is down over 5 a half% d it about that I've had AMD rated as one of my top stocks to buy here in 2025 so to see the stock price decrease is a disappointment to be sure but in this video I'm going to answer the question if this dip I'm going to review the company's latest quarterly results highlight what investors were disappointed with and update my recommendation for AMD stockl you know if I still think it's one of my top stocks it's one of my top rated stocks to buy right now I want to thank the mly s I highlighted in the introduction AMD stock price taking a decrease of about 5 a half% following an increase during the day regular trading hours at 4 and a half% it's given up all of those gains and has lost about a percent and a half on top of that the shares are still volatile as you can see the price action while I'm recording this video so amd's management team said that 2024 was a transformative year as we delivered record annual revenue and strong earnings growth data center segment annual revenue nearly doubled as epic processor adoption accelerated and we delivered more than5 billion of AMD Instinct accelerator Revenue looking into 2025 we see clear opportunities for continued growth and we are investing aggressively in artificial intelligence so this sounds like a good year and in fact I think 2024 was a good year for AMD uh but the problem is that AMD is getting compared with Nvidia and on the other side Intel and for one AMD is getting punished for not performing as well as nvidia's performing and then number two AMD is getting punished for being in the same markets as Intel and investors are afraid that AMD can become like Intel and so it's getting the worst of both comparisons against Nvidia and against Intel even though AMD is performing relatively well against Intel in terms of gaining market share revenue and participation in the AI Market Which Intel is struggling right um the data center segment Revenue AMD said that they delivered more than5 billion in accelerated Revenue Intel didn't even do 500 million and so the outperformance here is significant when you compare it with Intel but then when you compare it with Nvidia there's that similar kind of underperformance and that's kind of the give and take here with AMD stock so in the latest quarter Revenue was up 24% year-over-year to 7.6 billion and operating income was up 155% to 871 million operating margin expands to 11% from 6% so again a good quarter a good year is just when you compare it with Nvidia it's disappointing right amd's operating margin of 11% is compared to nvidia's operating margin which is close to 60% six times that and so when you compare it against Nvidia it looks really bad but when you just look at it on its own 24% Revenue increase with 155% increase in operating income that's a really good quarter for a company and it's a quarter that investors should be pleased with in and of itself it's just when you compare is when it looks poor all right amd's data center segment Revenue in the quarter was a record 3.9 billion which was up 69% year-over-year primarily driven by the strong ramp of its Instinct GPU and growth in its epic CPU here's one area of disappointment for investors pay attention to the growth rate here in the latest quarter which was 69% compared with the full year for 2024 in the data center segment which was an increase of 94% so what this means is that the latest quarterly Revenue was a deceleration from earlier in the year so the rate of increase is slowing down which is not what investors were expecting because AMD only recently launched these gpus and CPUs for the data center and investors were expecting a continued acceleration of growth for AMD given that the data center segment the market overall is rising rapidly businesses are spending so much money in this category Nvidia is experiencing so much growth in this category and recently we saw I've just recently reviewed three of the largest tech companies meta platforms alphabet and Microsoft which all indicated huge increases in spending in the data center optimized for AI they all indicated huge 50 60% increases which translates to $30 billion $25 billion uh respectfully with Microsoft and alphabet in terms of increases not the total the total budget is much larger the total budget for alphabet in 2025 is $75 billion for Capital expenditures for Microsoft it's $80 billion for Capital expenditures that's up from $50 billion respectively for both of them and so that's the kind of growth the market is experiencing and investors were hoping that AMD would be growing at a much faster rate than the increase in the market because they were hoping that AMD would gain some market share from Nvidia which boasts a market share of anywhere between 80 and 92% depending on the analyst that's estimating those market shares and so investors are hoping AMD can take some market share and grow a little bit faster than it did in the most recent quarter that's what's driving that disappointment that's what's driving the decrease in its client segment Revenue also did well was up 58% year-over-year driven by the AMD ryzen processors again gaining market share against Intel in the CPU space but losing market share or not gaining very much market share against Nvidia in the most important segment right now that investors are watching which is the data center optimized for AI AMD also reported a huge increase in cash flow from operations up to 1.3 billion that was up from 381 1 million in the same quarter last year and for the full year cash flow from operations jumped to 3 billion up from 1.66 7 billion the year prior so solid increases throughout 4 AMD the overall business improving cash flows increasing profits increasing Revenue increasing solid numbers to be sure but the Improvement is slower than expected which is what is giving investors IND Digest question with AMD stock is they want everything to happen like yesterday they're not waiting for AMD giving it time to catch up giving it time to develop its technology to develop the ecosystem the software along with the hardware for the op for the data center optimized for AI so AMD 7 and a half which is near the lowest it has traded for in a year my discounted cash flow model for AMD stock suggests that it's worth $180 a share but it's currently trading at $19 a share so the stock price is significantly lower than my calculation for intrinsic value for AMT headline is this a buying opportunity for AMD stock I would say yes yes it i