원문 보기
If you look at Bitcoin's price, and we think it'll be at least 250,000 by the end of this year, okay, that's the rows. So, it's the second to last row. If Ethereum price ratio gets to its 8-year average of 0.0479, that implies 12,000 per Ethereum token. If it gets to its 2021 high, which I think is justifiable given how much is happening fundamentally on uh Ethereum, that's $22,000 per ETH.
Okay. But I don't think that's the ceiling. The ceiling, sorry. Another way point is that Ethereum becomes the payment rails of the future and so its network value matches Bitcoin. Well, that would be $62,000 per ETH token. So, with ETH at 4,100, as you can see, each of these three values represents tremendous upside.
Tom Lee argues that major Wall Street institutions, banks, payment networks, and financial data providers are under pressure to innovate in a blockchain native way. They don't want to rely on corporate controlled private chains. They want neutral public infrastructure, and Ethereum is emerging as that platform.
The data backs it up. Ethereum holds 68% of the total value lock TVL across all public blockchains. A clear indication that institutional money, stable coins, and DeFi applications are consolidating around Ethereum's ecosystem. ; This 1971 moment is happening to Ethereum in 2025. And why is that? Well, all these firms on Wall Street need to be building something on a blockchain and they want to build it on a neutral public chain.
And as you can see, there are many companies choosing to do this on Ethereum. In fact, if you look at something like value locked um on public chains, uh Ethereum is the chain of choice. So they have 68% of all total value locked. And of course, TVL has acted as the floor for Ethereum in the last few cycles.
Uh even swift uh as you know last a few days ago announced that they're going to run some experiments with onchain migration using a layer 2 on ethereum. So again swift is a company that is showing that they want to use a public chain not a corporate chain and uh on AI there's a lot of talk about Ethereum is the place where you're going to be building AI products.
Okay. So, what does this all mean? Well, here's Ethereum's price history since 2018. It made its high in 2021. Okay. And then you can see this huge massive consolidation over the last four years. And we're beginning to break out of this range. I would look at the prior period of consolidation. Ethereum was consolidating from 2018 to 2020 2020 and then the token went from $90 to $4,866 or more than a 50x return.
The low for this cycle was 1385. So where will Ethereum go? I mean one I I have some thoughts I'll share but again if you look at this chart it's not bearish. Okay, this is a bullish chart. And another chart to think about is Ethereum's price ratio to Bitcoin. Um, it's currently at 0.036. The average has been 0.047 and the high in 2021 was 0.087.
I think that these numbers matter because to me Ethereum is having its 2025 moment like 1971. I think its price ratio should at least recover to its prior high of 0.087. So what does that mean? Well, if you look at Bitcoin's price, and we think it'll be at least 250,000 by the end of this year. Okay, that's the rows.
So, it's the second to last row. If Ethereum price ratio gets to its 8-year average of 0.0479, 0479. That implies 12,000 per Ethereum token. If it gets to its 2021 high, which I think is justifiable given how much is happening fundamentally on uh Ethereum, that's $22,000 per ETH. Okay. But I don't think that's the ceiling.
The ceiling, sorry. Another way point is that Ethereum becomes the payment rails of the future. And so its network value matches Bitcoin. Well, that would be $62,000 per ETH token. So with ETH at 4,100, as you can see, each of these three values represents tremendous upside. Okay, so let me get to this last point about if you're interested in ETH, why would you consider owning a digital asset treasury company?
Now, we post this on our website at Bitmine every month called the chairman's message, but I'm going to run through this quick because I want to cover this in a few minutes to try to have Q&A. But an ETH treasury goal is to increase your Ethereum holding per share because they can issue stock at a premium, buy more ETH.
Okay. And the case study to watch is Micro Strategy who went which went from 13 to $335 per share. The way Micro Strategy did this was issuing shares to buy more Bitcoin. And in the 5 years since Micro Strategy started the strategy, Bitcoin was at 10x, 11,000 to 108,000. But Micro Strategy stock went up by 25 times.
Meaning they outperformed Bitcoin by using their treasury strategy. And Bitmine is following the playbook. China is the second largest crypto treasury in the world raising capital at a pace faster than Micro Strategy. But one of the keys of course is Bitmine and there's a lot of treasury stocks out there is one of the most liquid names.
It is ranked number 26 in the US stock market today trading $2.6 billion a day. Uh, Bitmine trades more per day than Visa and Open Door and it trades almost as much as Marvel Technologies or ion Q on a daily basis. Now, that's been an advantage because you can see when you look at the 200 treasuries out there, Bitmine and Micro Strategy represent 84% of all the trading volume.
So, that's where the institutional flows are going to be going in terms of companies holding the stock. And that's allowed Bitmine to grow its treasury holdings rapidly. You can see that in the roughly 9 weeks since the company started, the Ethereum held per share has increased by nine times. So that velocity means we've vastly outperformed Ethereum.
So if you're looking to be bullish on Ethereum, an Ethereum treasury stock can deliver you more Ethereum every day. But that's not where it ends. Ethereum treasury companies, I believe, are crypto infrastructure businesses. Because Ethereum is a proof of stake, companies will stake their Ethereum in exchange for providing network security and that generates a yield.
And we believe over time anybody who tokenizes on Ethereum is going to ultimately stake ETH for the same security reason. And that's the strategy of Bitline that we're going to be a community participant in really making sure the Ethereum Foundation and Ethereum developers are successful on DeFi and the company will make moonshot investments to seed these crossover Wall Street to crypto uh entities.
One of the first investments was Bitmine's investment into 8CO which is Orbs and the Worldcoin project. Lee comments on market psychology. Despite volatility, investors are increasingly buying the dip. 2025 has been one of the strongest years for dip buying behavior since the 1980s with S&P 500 rebounds averaging 2% the day after significant sell-offs.
Retail participation is also exploding. Younger investors, especially those in their 20s and 30s, are entering markets at record rates. However, Lee also warns about excessive leverage, particularly in crypto and AI linked equities. Offshore exchanges offering 10x to 100x leverage have magnified both gains and losses.
Still, he maintains that long-term fundamentals for Ethereum and blockchain infrastructure remain incredibly strong, driven by structural adoption rather than short-term speculation. Does this mean people aren't nervous? Hello, by the way. Hello, Brian. It does not like it does not look like people are very nervous.
In fact, a lot of them are buying the dip as we can see with the big rebound today and it's been a record year for this very popular buy the dip trade. S&P 500 has rebounded around 2% after 1 day drops of that much this year. That makes it the best year for the buy the dip trade since 2019 and the second best year since the 1980s.
It's those are incredible stats. I mean going back to my time the 1980s and and it's we saw it in deepseat day in January. We saw it again with tariff liberation that took a couple days but the markets came roaring back. We saw it again from Friday i.e. today. Who are these people? Do we know why they're buying
well I think they've seen that this trade has worked. You know as as you mentioned we have not seen that much volatility this year but every time we have people have plowed money into the markets. And what's really remarkable is that I do think that this recent leg of the rally has been driven by Americans of many different income levels and of many different ages.
As the Journal recently reported, 25 year olds, around a third of them are in the markets today. In 2015, that figure was 6%. Was this the story I read and everything kind of gets mushed together on the weekends when I read my Apple News Plus? There's a sorry I was referenced the previous segment um about how people aren't buying homes in part because they're buying so much in stocks.
They're putting their money into the stock market not the housing market and it's worked. Take a look at share prices right compared to home prices. And I think that's why Americans of all income levels are also putting money into the markets. Income levels between 30,000 and $80,000 a year. More of those Americans are in the market than ever before and many of them have entered during this bull market.
that is the the true retail investor. That's we want market participation. We want everybody to feel that they can access this market. You don't need to be a multi-millionaire and they feel but and here's where here's there's always a butt. When I see leveraged crypto trades, when I see 3x ETFs up or down, you know, I'm not setting up a warning flag, but at the same time, these are instruments where if they work, they're going to work really well.
they don't work. There is a lot more risk here, right? Talk to us about leveraged crypto. I mean, I think it's leverage across the board. I was shocked to see that leverage ETFs tied to the NASDAQ. Nvidia saw some of their biggest inflows on record last week during this volatility. And stock investors who enter the markets on Friday are probably taking a look at their accounts and they're pretty happy right now.
Cryptole leveraged traders are still nursing losses. So the so to be clear and if I'm wrong please tell me the leverage here is basically it's not one to one you buy a share of Nvidia goes up you make some money goes down you lose a little bit of money when you sell these are ex multiples right exactly this is
borrowed money 10x 10x 20x 100x leverage and these trades are 100x leverage but that's abroad that's on offshore exchanges but but it does ex but that exists it exists 100 times leverage offshore trades stuff. Crypto trades exist and I would bet that US exchanges and brokerages will keep amping up the leverage on Coinbase.
You can access 10x leverage on Bitcoin and Ethereum. That was for the first time over the summer. And I think they're going to keep pushing the envelope. If these crypto assets continue to go up, those people are going to make a lot of money, right? But take a look at what happened on Friday, right?
People in these trades can also lose a lot of money, lose everything on days like Friday. I called it the get-rich or get wiped out trade. Yeah. Do we know how much of that leverage may contribute to sort of the more volatile declines that we see, right? So the stock market won't go down, you know, a quarter of a percent.
It'll go down 3%. Yep. And then it comes back roaring right back. that ex those extreme movements or at least my perception sitting here of extreme movements has to be tied if it's real to those leveraged trades or no look what what I often hear from traders especially the past few years as we've seen the rise of options trades one day options trades leveraged ETFs right a lot of these trades rebalance around the close so a lot of traders do think that that can exacerbate volatility on big up days and big down Is this is this you said offshore I would imagine that there's not just US retail investors buying in.
I've heard a lot about investors in other places like South Korea. This is a global market. Correct. This is a global phenomenon and you will be shocked at how much activity is taking place in these so-called perpetual futures around 68% of Bitcoin volumes. What's a perpetual future? So these are the leverage trades.
These are the crypto leverage trades. They're that offer 10x 20x and those markets don't close. Is that why I'm assuming that just based on the name perpetual? They they're around the clock and these are contracts that don't expire. As Tom Lee puts it, the parallels between 1971 and 2025 are more than just symbolic.
They represent the next great rearchitecture of global finance. In 1971, the US dollar went synthetic and Wall Street invented a whole new system of financial products to keep the dollar king. In 2025, Ethereum is taking that same leap, transforming how money, identity, death, and information move across the global economy.
Ethereum is no longer just a platform for decentralized apps. It's becoming the infrastructure of digital finance where stable coins, tokenized treasuries, AI agents, and even reputation systems will operate.
Comments 0