저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 200일선 대비 약 10% 위로 과열 단정은 아니며 단기 반등 가능, 5% 추가 상승(약 6950) 여력 제시. AI 노출 산업 실업 증가로 연준 매파 우려는 제한적. 비트코인 도미넌스는 9월 저점 후 10월 급등 예상(현 58%→60% 이상), 알트코인은 비트코인 대비 뒤처질 것. 사회적 관심 낮아 알트시즌은 시기상조, 유동성은 비트코인으로 복귀할 것. 9월 말~10월 내내 비트코인 도미넌스 상승 기조 유지 권고.
다듬은 글
And if you ask yourself, do we think the market is expensive? Now, keep in mind the S&P is about 10% above its 200 day moving average. Now, is that expensive or overbought? Well, as we highlight here, since 2022, there are three times where the S&P was at a higher level relative to its 200 day moving average, 13 to 15%.
And as as we highlight here, those indeed marked local tops before the start of a larger correction. So I think it's better to think about the market as getting close to that, but it probably needs to gain another 5% which be 69.50 and that's a lot of upside and it coincides with the fourth quarter rally.
I think that Bitcoin dominance is about to shoot up a lot. In October is when it should absolutely explode higher. Remember, September is the month where we often find lows for Bitcoin dominance. Tom begins by looking at the big picture in equities. Despite some weakness in recent days, largely driven by technology stocks, the S&P 500 remains comfortably above its 20-day moving average, currently around 6,62.
Each time the index has tested this level since the April lows, it has bounced back strongly. He emphasizes that while the market is about 10% above its 200-day moving average, this isn't necessarily overbought territory. ; Let me start with some macro, which is in our view that equities are still in a strong uptrend.
Now, you may have noticed that stocks wobbled a little bit this week, especially in the last few days because of technology, but the S&P 500 is still comfortably above the 20-day moving average, which is 6602. And as you can see here, the last five times that we got near the 20-day since the April lows, the market had a nice bounce.
And that's our belief, too, that in the short term stocks are oversold. And if you ask yourself, do we think the market is expensive? Now, keep in mind the S&P is about 10% above its 200 day moving average. Now, is that expensive or overbought? Well, as we highlight here, since 2022, there are three times where the S&P was at a higher level relative to its 200 day moving average, 13 to 15%.
And as as we highlight here, those indeed marked local tops before the start of a larger correction. So, I think it's better to think about the market as getting close to that, but it probably needs to gain another 5%, which would be 6950. And that's a lot of upside. And it coincides with the fourth quarter rally.
You may be wondering if the Fed is going to be hawkish, but keep in mind that AI is really raising questions about the labor market, and that's what the Fed's going to care about. St. Louis Fed did publish an interesting study, and they showed that if you look at AI exposure rate for industries, low to high, and then look at the rise in unemployment, low to high, you can see that it's highly correlated.
In other words, industries where there's a lot of AI exposure are seeing the largest displacement of workers. And so that ties into an observation which is that we may be witnessing the early stages of AIdriven displacement. And that's going to keep the Fed doubbish. And another thing to be constructive on stocks is that this is from BA that there's lower leverage today in the financial uh in the in corporates and that's a good sign.
So let's talk about granny stock performance. Let's look at the top five performers over the past week. It's Kale Lake, 10 core, Quanta, Crowdstrike, Robin Hood Markets, and Palunteer. Okay. And these are all AI related trades. Um the bottom five performers are Expedia, Live Nation, Amazon, Axon Enterprises, and S&P Global.
And in terms of style, global labor suppliers was the best theme over the past week, followed by energy and cyber security and then style tilt. Right now, Bitcoin dominance is still sitting at around 58%. And one of the things that we mentioned would likely happen in the month of September is that Bitcoin dominance would likely carve out a low, right?
And while everyone wants it to just be a simple move down and then right back up, it tends to take the better part of a month. You can see that the same thing happened right here in September of 2020. And the same thing happened over here in September of 2017. I think that the final rotation back into Bitcoin for this market cycle is about to start.
I think the low is likely already in, right? So, I think there's a good c this is a good candidate low for Bitcoin dominance here at around uh 57.17%. If you guys remember from a few months ago, one of the things that we we talked about was that dominance could easily just go back down and and and tag this trend line.
And it did, right? It it tagged the trend line. It even had a wick below it. But ultimately, I think we're going to see dominance head back up. We have to remember that Bitcoin dominance, the best month for Bitcoin dominance on average by far is October. If you look at the ROI from the cycle bottom for Bitcoin, you can see we're getting into the final innings of this bull market.
If you look at it from peak to peak, you could also argue that we're also getting into those final innings. And if you measure it from the having, we are arguably getting into the final innings of the bull market. In that case, what normally happens is the very last move, Bitcoin dominance should surge one more time.
Okay? Same thing happened in 2017, same thing happened in 2020, 2021 where you see Bitcoin dominance drop, right? you see it dropping just like we've seen it dropping over here, but then we get that final spike by dominance back up to the upside in Q4 before alts then start to outperform Bitcoin. So, I think that Bitcoin dominance is about to shoot up a lot.
Now, there's a lot of people that think that alt season is around the corner and for they're calling for Bitcoin dominance to crash, but this is not the time for Bitcoin dominance to usually crash. If you go look at monthly returns for Bitcoin dominance, right? It's a little bit handwavy, but if you go look at monthly returns for Bitcoin dominance, what you'll notice is that October by far is the best month on average.
now to within one standard deviation, right? There's a lot of there's a wide range. So there's no guarantee that dominance goes up in October, but I think it has to be the most likely outcome. On average, dominance goes up about 4.8% plus or minus 5.8% to win one standard deviation. So you're looking at dominance potentially going up is, you know, getting a 10% rally from the current levels.
And that would be essentially within one standard deviation of what we normally see in the month of October. If you look at this, you go up 10%, that basically puts Bitcoin dominance back near the highs. If it's only a 3 to 4% move from the current levels, then you're like basically looking back at the 20we SMA.
But regardless, dominance should absolutely explode higher as we get I mean I've for a long time I've said as we get into late September. We're in late September, right? And we're seeing Bitcoin dominance go up. But in October is when it should absolutely explode higher. Remember September is the month where we often find lows for Bitcoin dominance.
Sometimes we'll find highs, but whatever direction dominance is going into September and then reverse it course out of it. So like in 2019, dominance went up into September and then it started to go down after it. But if dominance is going down into September, then it tends to reverse course out of it, if that makes sense.
Um even in even in uh 2018 you can see that dominance here has found a low uh in in the month of September. If you look at 2022 um you'll see a low in the month of September. If you look at 2023 you'll also see a low around that time and so on and so on and so on and in 2020 right at a low in September.
So I think this is going to play out the exact same way. Okay. Dominance should absolutely explode higher in October. To be clear, Tom isn't predicting a crash in altcoins. He expects Ethereum and other large caps to hold their bull market support levels. However, they are likely to lag Bitcoin in both speed and magnitude of gains.
He also points out that social interest in crypto remains low. Without new retail participation, there isn't enough fresh capital to drive a true alt season yet. This again favors Bitcoin, the asset that attracts institutional liquidity first. Now, in the month of September, Bitcoin dominance has been holding the lows uh or sorry, sorry, holding the bull market support band actually just like it did over here in in 2020, just like it did in 2020.
And we still have a couple more days, you know, of of September. So, I'm not suggesting that, you know, it's going to play out the exact same way because the the rally over there started in the first week of October. So, you know, if there's if there is a little bit more consolidation, I I wouldn't get too scared by it.
Um, unless we get weekly closes below the 50we, which we're not getting right now. And if we do, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. But that's not what we're looking at right now. We're looking at at Bitcoin still holding above its uh its bull market support band. It's possible that you you know, you get another wick down.
Um, but all in all, I I think liquidity will flow back to the king and and again, you have three different outcomes. And every single outcome should likely lead to Bitcoin dominance going higher. If Bitcoin does not hold the 20week SMA as support and if it wicks below if it wicks down here, we've seen over the last few days whenever dominance was dropping, we saw Bitcoin uh dominant or when Bitcoin was dropping, we saw Bitcoin dominance start to spike.
So if it if it fails to hold, which hopefully it doesn't, uh dominance should go up. If it continues to ride this level, we should also see dominance go up because we're too close to the bull market support band for altcoins to get too courageous. Um, and if Bitcoin starts to go back up like after 2020 and like after 2017, checking in with this 21week EMA and like 2021, then we know dominance should go up as well into the final market cycle top.
So, it seems like no matter what happens here, Bitcoin dominance should spike, right? it should spike and I think we will see it heading back up to 60%. Uh really really soon. That's not to say that altcoins have to crash or anything like that. It's just that they're going to lag, right? And even even if you go back to 2020 and you guys I know I've been pretty bullish on Ethereum for the most part.
I was just calling for a a correction back to the 21week EMA before we commence uh with another move to all-time highs. If you look at 2020, you can see that Ethereum really I mean it it held the 20 the 21week EMA but it did not take out the August high until mid November right until mid- November whereas Bitcoin took out the August high in midocctober.
So it took an a whole extra month. So what I'm saying is that over the next month you're probably better off with Bitcoin in most cases. Now, I'm not suggesting you need to go sell your Ethereum uh for Bitcoin or anything like that. I'm not I'm not trying to say you need to do that. What I am saying is that it would be prudent to to basically uh assume that liquidity will flow back to Bitcoin in September um in late September and and really throughout the whole month of October.
So, I would remain bullish on Bitcoin dominance for at least the next five weeks and then we'll talk about, you know, potential changes and and how things might play out. But that is ultimately what uh I think is going to happen. The other thing you have to remember is that social interest in crypto still remains relatively low, right?
Like if you look like the social risk, it still is really low right now. And with it being low, uh there's just not enough new retail participants to really justify a true alt season. And so when liquidity is when when liquidity shifts back to the king and social interest is low, it's just a great recipe for Bitcoin dominance to explode higher.
So again, I'm not I'm not calling for Ethereum to crash or anything like that. I think it likely will stay above the bull market sport band, right? I think it'll it'll stay above that level and if it wicks down, it it should hold it as support. The problem is that it's just going to take longer for Ethereum to to gear back up to potentially head back higher near the highs than it will for Bitcoin.
And that's the point is that if the bull market is to continue, which is what we all hope it does, Bitcoin leads the bull market and then everything else follows a few weeks later. So liquidity should flow back to the king. Bitcoin dominance should start to go a lot higher. If you look at all Bitcoin pairs, they're starting to roll over again.
looks a lot like 2023 when you had sort of an initial move and then a fade and then another move and then a larger fade, right? Initial move and a fade, another move. And we're likely going to get a larger fade by all Bitcoin pairs. If you look at total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin so this includes Ethereum, what you'll notice is that it's tagged this trend line for the third time.
And every single time people call for alt season and it just continues to be rejected. It likely will break through, but not yet, right? not not probably for the rest of this month, not for October. Uh maybe in November, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, liquidity should flow back to the king.
So, as as annoying as it might be for me to just say the same thing over and over and over again, as annoying as it may be, the reality is is that Bitcoin is the reason the other cryptocurrencies exist. And I think that the people calling for alt season are once again premature on their call. I think liquidity should flow back to Bitcoin starting now and we should see Bitcoin dominance back above 60%.
Really, really soon. So, do not fade liquidity back to Bitcoin. I think it will be the next narrative. I don't know what people are going to blame for it. I know a lot of people have been saying, "Well, the altcoin ETFs are coming, therefore, you know, I'm wrong." But to me, uh, all that stuff is noise.
This is the time for liquidity to flow back to Bitcoin. So, what you what you should see happen is when Bitcoin goes up, you'll see altcoins go up a little bit less and then when Bitcoin gets a pullback, altcoins should then pull back even more. And even today is a great example, right? Bitcoin's up almost 2%.
Uh, Ethereum is only up about 1%. Right? If you look at Total 3, it's not even up a full percent. So, you're already seeing the narrative shift, right? is already here for those who care to listen and for those who who don't want to just run around screaming it's alt season over and over and over again.
Watch for liquidity to flow back to Bitcoin. The alt the alt season calls will likely be wrong again. And then we'll talk here uh in a few more weeks about dominance and and and if it's playing out how I think if if we see a a low for do like if dominance goes to 55 or 56% within the next week or two then I'm wrong.
Right. It's important to know like what what would need to happen for me to be wrong. If you see dominance below 55, you know, around 55 to 56%. I think it's argument to say, all right, my view on dominance is wrong this time. But I don't think that's going to happen. I think dominance has formed a low in the month of September just like we said it would.
I think it's going to head higher here at the very end of September and I think it should explode higher in the month of October. Tom frames this as the final innings of the bull market. Whether you measure from cycle bottoms, peak-to- peak moves or havingss, the data suggests we are approaching the endgame of this run.
Historically, that means Bitcoin takes center stage, dominance surges, and then only after Bitcoin peaks do altcoins make their strongest relative moves. So, while alt season will come, it's likely premature to call for it now. October, in Tom's view, belongs to Bitcoin.
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