저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 미국 주식시장이 소비자 주도 침체와 실적 악화로 역사상 가장 큰 폭락을 맞을 것이라고 경고한다. 핵심 근거 1: 지난 13년은 미국 역사상 가장 긴 상승장이었고, S&P500은 2008년 이후 6배 이상 올랐다. 이는 부채 증가에 의해 뒷받침된 상승이라고 주장한다. 핵심 근거 2: 미국 총 공공부채는 2009년 이후 3배 가까이 늘어 30조 달러 이상이 되었고, 2019년 약 22조 달러 대비 3년 반 만에 약 36% 증가했다. 핵심 근거 3: 개인저축률은 2008년 이후 보지 못한 수준으로 떨어졌고, 총 개인저축도 거의 10년 만의 최저 수준이다. 신용카드 부채는 사상 최고치다. 핵심 근거 4: 소비 약화가 기업 매출과 이익을 깎아 소비자 주도 경기침체와 실적 악화로 이어질 것이라는 논리다. 저축 대비 GDP 추세를 근거로 제시한다. 비교 사례: 1970년대 스태그플레이션과 기록적 고통지수 상승에 빗대며, 실업과 물가가 동시에 치솟는 시나리오를 언급한다. 파운드 급락과 영란은행 채권 매입, 중국 위안화 강세 시도 등을 위기 징후로 든다. 동료 예측: 제레미 그랜섬도 최근 랠리를 베어마켓 랠리로 보고, 고평가 자산과 연준의 긴축이 폭락을 부를 수 있다고 주장한다. 대응 조언: 변동성이 커진 시장에서는 현금흐름이 강하고 경쟁우위(해자)가 있는 기업에 집중하라고 권한다. 대상 자산 예측: 구체적 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았으며, 전반적 미국 주식시장 하락(폭락) 경고가 핵심이다. 리스크: 시점이 명시되지 않았고 '수개월 내' 위기를 언급하나 정확한 타이밍이나 목표치는 없다. 출연자 전망: 버리는 2008년 주택시장 붕괴를 예측한 이력을 강조하며 이번에도 큰 폭락이 올 것이라고 확신한다.
다듬은 글
the investing Legend known for predicting the 2008 housing market crash Michael burry also known as Big Short is now warning investors that the greatest crash in the broader asset markets in history is coming Barry was so successful with his stock picks that American registered investment advisor the Vanguard group and insurance and related Financial Services holding company White Mountains Insurance Group started following his investment choices in November 2000 Murray started the hedge fund science Capital which was widely profitable from the get-go by the end of 2004.
he was managing 600 million dollars and turning money away to fully serve and focus on his current clientele then by 2005 Barry shifted his focus on the subprime market this is when Barry predicted that the real estate bubble was bound to collapse as early as 2007. bury is foreseeing the mother of all crashes backed by the biggest decline in corporate earnings the world is about to wake up to this crisis within the next few months and bury will once again make billions in the process the past 13 years represented the largest bull run in U.S history the SNP 500 has increased by over six times in value since 2008.
this unprecedented price increase was fueled by growing liabilities total public debt is tripled to over 30 trillion dollars since 2009 and while it's impossible to know how much debt is too much it's certainly not sustainable to keep adding trillions of dollars in debt every year the growing debt balance is coupled with a massive decline in consumer savings the U.S personal savings rate is currently reaching levels that haven't been seen since 2008.
total personal savings have also declined to levels not seen in almost a decade despite inflation the fact that total savings are declining while trillions of dollars are being added to the economy is extremely concerning to make matters even worse credit card debt is reaching all-time highs signaling that the consumer is getting weaker and weaker every day looming a consumer recession and more earnings trouble the weakening consumer directly impacts the sales of companies as the economy works with a circular flow for investors what they could have bought for thousands of dollars a few years back may only cost a hundred dollars by the time the bubble bursts and if the investor needs money right away this is going to be difficult as stock market prices don't rebound as quickly especially following recessions for non-investors and everyday people a recession leads to overall increase of prices for food and other Commodities unemployment will take a huge hit and even those who manage to still secure their jobs may be affected by wage decreases this will also affect business no matter what kind as all products and utilities will see an upsurge in price many businesses close down during recession as well material and product are more expensive furry is giving numerical evidence as to why the lowering consumer sentiment will cause a recession the reason why is that the low consumer activity will lower corporate earnings decreasing household income and leading to even less saving very reiterated his statement by showing the downwards trend of the U.S personal savings to GDP charting total U.S personal savings GDP bury is clearly calling for a consumer-led recession but he's not the only one saying that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell once said in 2019 that he was very worried about the growing U.S debt the total U.S debt back then was roughly 22 trillion dollars that number has now increased to over 30 trillion dollars which is a 36 percent increase in three and a half years all of this is concerning but you might be wondering what degree of the collapse we are talking about here prominent economists worldwide often compare our situation to the 1970s when the U.S experienced inflation in the double digits the 1970s is often seen as a period of stagflation because the economy simultaneously experience high unemployment and high inflation this period of time coincided with a record increase in the misery index due to low consumer purchasing power imagine a period in which you not only become unemployed but also witness your money become worthless another Factor adding to the inevitable Market meltdown this added with global happenings such as the Russia Ukraine war and continuous lockdowns in China have increased the value of the US dollars to new record highs against other Global currencies the British pound got absolutely destroyed recently and because of this the bank of England went on a 65 billion pound or 72 billion dollar Bond buying spree as the increasing power of the US dollar was threatening the UK's Financial stability there have also been reports of the People's Bank of China preparing to sell dollars and buy offshore Yuan to increase the power of the Chinese currency the increasing rates devaluation of other Global currencies in contrast to the US dollar as well as authorities and the government taking rapid action in order to calm down markets are telltale signs of turn to the Great Recession according to Barry unlike in 2008 where Barry was one of the very few people who saw the financial meltdown happen a mile away signs are more obvious this time another doomsayer joined bury in indicating that a market crash is coming namely Jeremy Grantham claims that the recent rallies seen in the stock markets is just a bear Market rally and in his research note titled entering the super bubbles Final Act he claimed that the mix of overpriced assets and Federal Reserve fight against inflation could lead to a market crash it is difficult to know what will happen exactly however Murray has a history of making precise predictions that often seem pre-scient in hindsight the broader markets are experiencing increased volatility therefore Market participants should focus on firms with strong cash flows and competitive moats if they plan on staying in the markets foreign
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