저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 외무장관 발표로 호르무즈 해협이 휴전 기간 동안 상업 선박에 완전 개방된다는 소식을 호재로 해석. 유가는 80달러 초반으로 하락, 미 10년물 금리 4.24%로 하락, 금리인상 가능성은 거의 제거되고 연내 금리인하 여부는 동전 던지기 수준이라고 주장. 과거 6~7주간 나쁜 경제지표는 전쟁 탓으로 돌려질 것이며 약세 투자자(베어)를 끌어들일 호재라고 봄. 시장 약세/강세 지표는 높은 수준이며 현재도 매수 기회가 있다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes, just minutes ago, Iran's foreign minister says in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is now declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire and totally open between now and when Kevin's coupon code expires at meetkevin.com.
Okay, no, seriously, this is this is actually really great news. They are opening the straight for the remaining period of the ceasefire. This doesn't mean that negotiations are absolutely complete, but it does follow Donald Trump's optimism yesterday on not only making an agreement that will exceed 20 years for controlling the Iranian nuclear restrictions for nuclear enrichment and of course collecting the 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, about 1,000 lb.
Uh, this is huge. Obviously, as a result of this, we're seeing oil prices come down, we're seeing rates come down. Uh, we're about to have a kind of plays we're looking at on this, but something that's just really important for everybody to remember is the the last roughly six to seven weeks uh, have generated a lot of bad data from inflation expectations to consumer expectations to retail sales to uh, suppressed consumerism to uh, you know, whatever.
All of that data is still going to come out in data that we get at the end of this month, at the beginning of next month, the middle of next month, towards the end of next month. So, now we still have six to seven months of bad data to go through, but everybody's going to look at that bad data and say, "That was all because of the war." This does not mean that the war is over, but this is really bullish because it finally pushes a lot of the leftover bears.
Mind you, our bear bull scale is is one of the one of the highest levels it's been in a while. We've been buying a lot of the dip not only during the war. We bought the dip quite a bit before the the first ceasefire was announced but even afterwards. There were plenty of opportunities still to be had.
There's still opportunities to be had today. So there's still buy the dip opportunities maybe not on the index levels right but that's we're definitely buying and have been buying as our analysis which you can always join at mekevin.com. But the point is these data sets that people might be latching onto as leftover bears I like to say are all going to get discounted by markets as ah well that was during the war time.
And instead now that we're seeing rates come down hopefully they come down more. Oil's down to the low 80s still not back to 60 where it was in January but it's coming down. We're seeing the 10-year treasury come down to 4.24 that's great and we're now removing all potential rate hikes. They're gone.
We're down to just 0.3% chance on rate hikes. We're closer to a coin toss as to whether or not we're going to get a rate cut this year. That's the best place we've been for rate cuts. There's literally a Goldman Sachs line on the Bloomberg terminal right now that says Goldman warns continued market recovery hinges on rates relief.
That's what we're starting to see. So this is a fantastic way to start Friday. I need to have some tea and get to the course member live stream I'm a little raspy. We'll see you all soon. Congrats everybody this is this is grea.
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