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Michael burry just warned that this may be the last bear Market rally before we crash to the bottom just like in 2001 first the U.S nodem system crash resulting in all flights being grounded the FAA said that files were unintentionally deleted causing the crash Tuesday Morning the New York Stock Exchange halted 90 plus dogs after a technical error moved 40 billion dollars plus in market cap is our technology really that fragile or the Cyber attack is getting that serious so far in the first month of 2023 U.S raises depth ceiling for the 79 times since 1960.
60 000 plus Tech employees laid off average new car payment hits record eight hundred dollars a month 70 plus of economists expect a recession and now New York Stock Exchange mysteriously Hull adults trading for 90 Plus stocks making 20 percent plus moves in those stocks within minutes has uncertainty ever been this high and yet the S P 500 seems to want to move higher is this another bull trap rally is Michael burry right about the similarity between this market and 2001 why I believe interest rate will go lower pawn um you want to ge from my last video lacey hunt said he believes last November is when the recession has started so here are the layoffs since November number one Ford 3200 employees number two Amazon eighteen thousand employees number three Wayfarer 10 of employees number four Goldman Sachs three thousand employees number five Twitter seven thousand seven hundred employees number six Peloton 12 of employees number seven Microsoft 10 000 employees number eight Google 12 000 employees layoffs are beginning to spread Beyond Tech this is the start of a stagnant economy is secular stagnation over I do not think so today's inflation will not last but I believe that low rates will secular stagnation refers to economies suffering from structurally load private demand requiring very low interest rates to sustain demand and Achieve potential output indeed requiring interest rates so low that they are lower than the growth rate the empirical evidence was indeed overwhelming that most economies were in such a state real estate rates interest rates adjusted for inflation had steadily declined since the mid-1980s and were much lower than growth rates indeed typically negative disagreeing about secular stagnation with the first macro economist to identify it rightly as contemporary phenomenon is something that one should do very carefully because I believe that Global secular stagnation was and is driven by Deep structural factors that neither lockdown nor inflation have done anything to reverse once central banks have won the fight against inflation which they will we shall most likely return to a macroeconomic environment not dramatically different at least in this respect from the one before lockdown that means that safe interest rates that is rates for assets with no risk of default will be low again why do I believe rates will remain low the decline in safe rates on government bonds adjusted for expected inflation has been a steady and Global one since the 1980s the decline may have started earlier in Japan but essentially all advanced economies shared the condition until the post lockdown inflation of 2021 this trend did not result from particular events say the global financial crisis or the 2020 crisis while these led to temporarily lower rates these lower rates were short-lived deviations from an underlying downward trend this process was indeed interrupted by the rise of inflation starting in 2021 which has four central banks to increase interest rates to get inflation down to Target but even now at what may be close to the height of Central Bank interest rates in their fight against inflation real interest rates are still surprisingly low in the United States the 10-year nominal rate on government bonds is currently 3.4 percent well the 10-year inflation forecast by the Congressional budget office is 2.4 percent implying a 10-year real rate of 1.0 percent at the same time the 10-year CBO growth forecast is 1.7 percent implying that even today the 10-year forecast for R minus G is still negative minus 0.7 percent investors and even the Fed can be wrong however indeed they did not predict the current increase in nominal rates so one must dig deeper leading indicators Roar recession as NASDAQ soars to the best start to year since 2001.
U.S macro data has been ugly recently crushing the soft Landing narrative and today we get the clearest signal of that imminent hard Landing recession as leading economic indicators tumbled for the 10th straight month plunging most sense the GFC continuing to Signal recession for the U.S economy in the near term growth stocks have dramatically outperformed value stocks since the start of the year as the value growth ratio topped out perfectly at the cliff before the lockdown driven easing Fest the start of the Lunar New Year offers an additional Tailwind to the 36 percent jump in Bitcoin so far in 2023 if history is any guide every year since 2015 the price of the biggest cryptocurrency was higher ten days after the festival's on set a hundred percent win rate finally Bloomberg's Financial conditions index is at its loosest since before the feds started hiking rates in March 2022 I simply cannot believe that after all the job boning in the last two weeks as well as the explicit acknowledgment in fomc minutes that Powell will not have to aggressively push back against this unwarranted easing legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock market could crash 50 percent this year as the bubble enters its final phase Grantham said the ongoing deterioration of the financial conditions will be capped off by a downturn in the housing market representing the final phase of the stock market bubble that should help Drive the S P 500 to 3200 by year end in a worst case scenario grant them sees the S P 500 falling as much as 50 percent to about two thousand and investors shouldn't look to the Federal Reserve for help in the form of interest rate cuts according to Grantham that's because in 1929 2000 and 2007 the largest part of the stock market decline occurred after the First Rate cut from the Fed despite the painful recent experiences of the 2000 and 2008 bear markets we continue to hold on to the hope that the First Rate cut will be guaranteed to kill the bear we really are an incredibly optimistic species that these very negative examples despite being clear and recent are so easily ignored Grantham said I think Grantham is agreeing with Michael Barry and they are right what I think will happen first is that TLT will lead the NASDAQ higher before the final crash happens TLT will continue going higher as the stocks crash down this is my client Teddy Easy's book Wicked [ __ ] perfume it is an erotic novel such an amazing book in my book rainbow Focus
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