저자: KevinKim—채널진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 1월 31일 'sell'에서 'I was wrong to say sell'로 입장을 바꾼 트윗을 중심으로, 시장 반등과 'buy the dip' 흐름, 경제지표를 해설하는 영상이다. 마이클 버리 입장 변화: 1월 31일 'sell'을 주장했으나 이후 'I was wrong to say sell'로 번복했다. 같은 날 과거 1920년대 이후 'buy the dip' 전략의 성과를 보여주는 차트를 공유했다. 시장 상황: 12월 매도세는 세금손실 회피 매도의 영향으로 해석된다. S&P500은 하락일 이후 평균 0.3% 반등하며 대공황 이후 두 번째로 강한 반등 속도를 보이고 있다는 Bloomberg 기사 내용이 인용됐다. 진행자는 나스닥이 강세장으로 복귀했다고 봤다. 경제지표: 신규실업수당청구 19.8만 건(예상 19.5만), 연속청구 168.9만 건(예상 170만). 4분기 GDP 성장률 2.6%(전기 2.7%, 예상 소폭 하회), 개인소비 1.4%→1.0%로 예상 하회, GDP 디플레이터 3.9%, 근원 PCE 전분기 대비 4.4%(이전 4.3%)로 소폭 상회했다. 종합하면 인플레이션은 다소 높고 성장과 소비는 약해 경기침체에 약간 가까워졌다는 평가다. 금리·시장 반응: 10년물 금리 약 3.57%, 2년물 약 4.13%로 장단기 금리 역전이 지속 중이다. 5년 기대인플레이션 율은 은행위기 이후 하락했다가 다시 반등 중이다. 나스닥과 S&P500은 발표 직후 일시 약세 후 반등했다. 은행위기: 실리콘밸리은행 등 중소형 은행 위기 이후 규제 논의가 이어지며, 스트레스 테스트가 형식적 컴플라이언스가 됐다는 비판이 언급됐다. 진행자 전망: 과거 침체 예상이 줄어들며 연착륙 가능성을 언급했고, 노동시장은 여전히 타이트하다고 봤다. 명확한 종목 추천은 없었다.
다듬은 글
holy smokes Michael burry just a flip-flopped we also got some new data this morning on what's going on with consumers GDP and inflation we'll talk about that in this video in just a moment but first holy smokes what a flip-flop this was Michael burry on January 31st when he tweeted the word sell period he tweeted that after an incredible December uh sell-off which was probably driven by substantial tax loss harvesting in fact Nancy Pelosi and her husband took over two and a half million dollars of losses on companies like Salesforce Tesla PayPal just to dump out of the market presumably to tax us Harvest to offset other potential gains that they had since usually their signal they're the signal of what to do they did some big tax loss harvesting too a lot of Tesla investors probably tax loss harvested leading Tesla to hit its bottom in December and Michael Murray after the January recovery tweets sell well guess what Michael burry has tweeted today and it is a total flip-flop a complete flip-flop from what he tweeted on January 31st Michael Murray tweeted the following I was wrong to say sell holy smokes oh I hope you're not using Michael Murray as your financial advisor and even though I am a licensed financial advisor I'm not trying to solicit your business I don't do personalized Financial advice I do run an act and actually manage ETF I have affiliate links for like life insurance and free stocks linked down below but more importantly Michael burry wrote I was wrong to say sell and Beyond suggesting that he was wrong to say sell and he just tweeted this as well he also tweeted the following with a chart coming from a Bloomberg story that we also covered this morning in the meet Kevin report the Bloomberg story has to do with buy the dippers and Michael burry tweeted going back to the 1920s there has been no by the effing dip generation like you congratulations and he shows these blue charts on the right side the blue bars being higher than at any point in history and it says the s p 500's average return following down Days by year this is the second best year for the buy the dip strategy now this was uh all in an article by Bloomberg talking about how by the dippers are back and forth where the stock market and especially the NASDAQ is now back in a bull market we actually covered uh this this morning uh in our meet Kevin report and you can see the section over here look at this section they're referring to the fear of missing out on the next big rally is leading to a replay of dip buying impetus during the 2020 bull run the S P 500 wow imagine comparing today to 2020 which was basically v-shaped recovery right I mean that would be a pretty sharp Nike Swoosh because this is the thing the recovery I think we get with a lot of volatility in it but wow the S P 500 has gained an average of 0.3 percent following any down days this year on Pace for the second biggest Rebound in data going back to the Great Depression 1927.
that's the article Michael burry uh read it was actually one of the front page articles this morning and apparently it convinced Michael burry to tweet I was wrong to say well so what does this mean for the Nike Swoosh and the recovery well obviously it's pretty optimistic this is fantastic news uh Michael Barry one of the biggest bears is actually coming out going damn okay well maybe I was wrong that takes something because he's not doubling down like most bears are doing you go to like Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson what are they doing they're doubling down on how basically we're going to hit new lower lows and instead when we actually jump over to look at the Nike Swoosh uh one of the things we're noticing is that every time we had rotated down last year we wrote it after a little bit of a rally we rotated down to a new low look at that we had pain in December of 2021 uh the a couple years ago now geez well a little more than a year ago anyway we rotated down had a little rally plummeted lower had a little rally plummeted lower now what's happening how to Rally stabilized had a rally did not make a new low now we're back in rally it's an interesting Trend and I think it's the setup for the Nike Swoosh recovery this is why we do the fundamental analysis we do in the course member live streams so exciting but let's talk about some of the data that just came out this morning and what did potentially means going forward especially as it relates to what we just heard from Michael Murray now we gotta talk about GDP and jobless claims that just came out these and this data just came out we got initial claims for jobless data coming in at 198 000 jobless claims the expectation was 195.
the more jobless claims we get the more of a sign that maybe some of the impacts of higher rates are starting to hit the last report was 191 we were expecting 195 we got 198. continuing claims unfortunately though well I guess good for the individual but not so great for necessarily the economy came in low the estimate was 1.7 mil we came in at 1.689 suggesting people were able to get right back into the labor market uh we did get GDP annualized quarter over quarter at 2.6 percent slightly lower than the survey and Last Read of 2.7 we also got personal consumption which has officially dropped Last Read 1.4 percent the current survey 1.4 percent current result one percent so miss on personal consumption GDP Price Index stable at 3.9 percent that is consistent with the prior and the survey core pce quarter over quarter that's the quarter measure of the personal consumption expenditure that is not to be confused with the data that we get Friday morning on the 31st which would be the month over month and year-over-year figures for pce quarter over quarter pce actually Rose a little bit to 4.4 percent up from the priority to 4.3 and the survey of 4.3 so what do we make of this well somewhat mixed data here a little bit higher on the core inflation numbers here on uh on the quarter over quarter GDP a little slower than expected and Retail and personal consumption coming in slightly lower than expected we don't necessarily like that because what we want to do is avoid a recession while at the same time inflation comes down we just got the opposite right we got a little bit more inflation and a little bit less GDP and a little bit less retail sales so we actually went today's these numbers that just came out a little closer to recession a little further away on the battle for ending inflation and the inflationary fears so I would say not fantastic I'd like to take a quick look to see how the market is responding to that these are not horribly different though from expectations so they're pretty close and the market initially had a slight red Candlestick on the NASDAQ we slightly red candlesticked over uh to the uh in this case 200 minute moving average however we immediately green candle sticked right after that on the NASDAQ so it looks like the market is is willing to accept more patience here the same thing happened over here on the 200 minute candle for the S P 500 another place that we can look will be the uh let's look at yields so let's see how yields are moving specifically bonds looks like bonds basically flat on this news here we've got the tenure sitting at 3.572 if we compare this to the two-year treasury yield we'll be able to look for an inversion of the yields curve and remember it's generally the subsequent re-steepening of the yield curve uh that is the most painful two-year sitting right now at 4.126 so still inverted on the twos tens over here and a lot of folks say that you get the inversion basically right when you hit recession so something to keep in mind there let's take a look at what Wall Street is suggesting about this uh and potentially also CNBC so let's give them a quick listen here right here yesterday and today um all right how's the days in okay you have any room service um no Joe we're at a pretty decent hotel here you know we've been doing this for a while when you jump over to CNBC sometimes they just talk about nonsense uh anyway so uh no real comments from Wall Street just yet uh let's see if they actually have any from on CNBC yes otherwise I'll go to Bloomberg why don't they show up in JavaScript I think the story Joe whether I came up with at the very beginning and seems to be the case right now is they seem to be getting jobs or maybe it's just the extended uh benefits package makes them ineligible for jobless claims but but the idea that we're still under after how many weeks running now uh is really quite remarkable you would have thought we would have had a surge yet and it's interesting the FED just can't get that job market to loosen up the way it wants to give me the I know there's going to be a first read on first quarter GDP give me your preliminary read on first quarter GDP yeah we're seeing like we're seeing like a two percent I think was the latest Joe in fact I was just trying to look it up before because I was inside listening to Sheila bear but but uh CNBC update yeah former chair bear who is uh really good but but the the last thing I saw Joe was there two percent so so that recession that everybody thought was going to happen in the first quarter isn't going to happen and I don't think they're predicting it for the second quarter it's down the road someplace and at some point um I guess it happens in the sense that you have these inventories pull back but but I was talking to somebody last night who said they have a lot of retail clients and the retailers were preparing for this downturn and of course once you prepare for a downturn sometimes that shock doesn't ever happen because you prepared for it you got a frog in your throat that little froggy yeah are you okay that's actually a fan I don't know why they're so distracting I don't you know I think it's so interesting that I think fate loves irony Elon Musk says that I'm stealing a quote from him and how crazy would be if we don't actually get the recession like he just said policeman just said we might not actually get the recession because people come to prepare for the recession how weird is that that would just be bizarre that like okay all right let's be a little more careful wait let's not go to the Moon here with our spending let's just be a little bit more relaxed and measured and then what ends up happening people are relaxed and measured you get slightly above uh zero growth but you don't get Negative growth and then what you don't get recession that would be wild and see I think there's a lot of talk right now that the way that we get lower prices will really be like lower stock prices the start of the recession that's what a lot of people are predicting and projecting right now uh it's uh worth looking at the five year Break Even inflation rate because the five-year break-even inflation rate is moving up a little bit and the moving up of the five-year break-even inflation rate does potentially suggest the fed's gonna have to talk that down again and really push us into recession to actually get that inflation down so we did have a softening there with the banking crisis of that five-year Break Even but now as the banking crisis is fading you're actually getting uh The Five-Year break-even inflation rate kind of try to move back up I'd like to see this trend continue if I go ahead and draw a trend line here let's see what we can draw it's very difficult to kind of draw something solid here let's see if I maybe go from over here here maybe maybe we could draw a trend right about here we'd like to see this overall downtrend obviously you know in the big zoom out here it is but uh it's a little problematic that we had this Spike over here and that was before the banking crisis so the only thing that really recently lowered these expectations for inflation were the banking crisis so not fantastic let's listen into a reaction over here on the data even if Silicon Valley had been in the stress test for real last year rather than their dress rehearsal with the scenario I think they would have come out just fine but what does that point us to that points us to the fact that the stress test has become a compliance exercise it's become eminently predictable and you know Becky I would be surprised if there weren't some if there hadn't been some voices in the FED over the last several years saying we need to be testing for increased interest rates but just as supervision generally I think the stress test is has just weakened over the years yeah and that's likely to continue to happen you know Joe Biden right now is talking about this idea of maybe punishing uh the mid-sized Banks and the larger Banks but exempting smaller banks credit unions are banding together blaming uh markets and saying look it's not fair to punish all the small Banks because if we collapse it's not a big deal we're small but then at what point are you systemically important and that was supposed to be 250 mil but apparently it was the smaller Banks like Silicon Valley Bank or signature or silvergate that were important enough to basically bail out so it's interesting regarding this data that just came out uh we do have a comment here that uh quote data offers a little fresh insight there isn't much new insight from this morning's data releases jobless claims were pretty much bang in line with expectations while there were some modest downside adjustments to stale Q4 GDP figures thanks to a downgrade of consumer spending estimates core inflation was revised slightly higher but that's pretty much ancient history now tomorrow's February pce data will be much more relevant for the near-term fortunes of the market but arguably even that data is stale after this month's turmoil ah they basically just put salt on the pce release tomorrow come on man that's not cool I want to cover the pce tomorrow because that way I can remind you about life insurance and and free stocks linked down below and an ETF and hatever it's actually an interesting point though I mean could it be that inflation data from February is stale because of the banking crisis I mean I suppose do like do normal people spend less money because of the banking crisis we know businesses do but do regular people really care I don't know uh I I suspect not but uh that gives you the numbers that came out this morning why the numbers from this morning could be a nothing burger what they could potentially signal I like leesman's argument about wow it seems like the FED just can't do anything to get jobs down because people are just finding new jobs kind of reiterates the idea of a tight labor market I suppose but at least you could still check out the links down below and support your favorite Channel on YouTube as always appreciate you coming back and subscribing sharing the videos try to provide the best value possible thanks so much thank you
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