저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준이 인플레이션 싸움에서 졌고 인플레가 재상승(9%까지)할 것이며, 미국 경제는 약하고 주식시장(S&P500)은 금 대비 크게 고평가. 금이 25년간 S&P를 이겼고 금광주는 PER 12배대로 극단적 저평가, 장기 보유로 큰 수익 기대. 비트코인은 디지털 피라미드 사기로 보며 트럼프의 비트코인 준비금은 기부자 배불리기라 비판.
다듬은 글
failure of the mainstream to understand what's actually happening you know we have this false narrative all year about how strong the US economy was how strong the labor market was and despite the fact that Trump uh was elected by people who uh expressed their concerns about how weak the economy was the number one issue in the election was the economy because it was weak and inflation because it was strong and people still don't get uh the predicament that we're we we have a weak economy the only thing that's strong is inflation and that's the other thing that surprises me again or maybe it doesn't surprise me but that people don't understand that the FED has lost the inflation war that it didn't win it surrendered and that far from or rather than moving back down to 2% that inflation is headed back up to 9% in fact it's going to it's going to get higher next time so you know we've got the worst of Both Worlds coming uh High much higher inflation a much weaker economy and electing Donald Trump unfortunately is not going to change that the FED hasn't handled anything appropriately maybe if you go back to Paul vulker but you know prior to that or subsequent to vulker I don't think they've handled anything appropriately I think that's why we're in the dire circumstances that that we are in is because of how inappropriate fed policy has been including the current policy I mean the FED made a mistake in lowering rates to zero uh it never should have lowered them to zero even before Co but it made a bigger mistake bringing them there after Co the FED never should have done any quantitative easing going back to the first time I did it in 2009 it's been one mistake after another the FED shouldn't have lowered rates to 1% uh that and helped deflate the housing bubble uh so you know the mistakes have been going on ever since Greenspan was the FED chairman unfortunately and you know it hasn't gotten any better rates are still too low the FED never should have stopped hiking they they you know they they never got into restrictive territory def despite the fact that they claim rates are restrictive they're not restrictive in a sense that they're stopping the borrowing the borrowing and spending has continued unabated by the public sector and the private sector the savings rates have collapsed the the purpose of higher rates is to discourage borrowing and to encourage savings but none of that has been achieved because the FED stopped too soon and so we continue to go deeper and deeper into debt this despite the fact that the FED is hiked rates and now the FED is cutting rates uh so they're pouring gasoline on the fire that they lit well it's been a good year for gold um you know gold has paired its gains a bit in dollars since Trump was elected although it's gone on to make new record highs in other currencies uh you know the Canadian dollar the Australian dollar the Euro the pound you know we've seen record high gold prices in you know after Trump was elected uh and that's because you know the dollar has benefited from a lot of the false optimism surrounding the US economy and how it's going to Faire relative to the rest of the world uh based on Trump um and I think if the world didn't have so much false optimism I think the gold price would be you know quite a bit higher than it is now probably you know maybe $2 $300 an ounce higher uh than it is uh I think we're going to get there I think it's just going to take a little while for uh the illusion to fade and for people to wake up to the reality of of the problem well they could move in the same direction I just think gold will move a lot faster so in real terms the S&P will be going down look the US Stock Market no matter how you look at it is very overvalued now the only way it's not overvalued is if you say well the dollar is going to crash and and so you know priced in what the dollar is going to be worth in the future maybe it's not overvalued which which could certainly be the case but in terms of gold in terms of how many ounces of gold you need to buy the S&P versus what the earnings are of the S&P in Gold so how many ounces of gold is the S&P earning right now versus the price of the S&P in Gold the PE is much too high you know based on where it historically would be and so I think that real us stock prices are coming way down what happens to nominal prices is harder to say and I think even less relevant because what matters to investors is not what their what their stocks are worth on paper but what the value of those stocks will buy you in the real world gold has been rising against the S&P for 25 years gold has beaten the S&P for 25 years so that's not true now the cost of mining has gone up a lot as well so that has uh reduced somewhat uh or substantially in a way the gains that gold companies have had from a higher gold price because they've also had a higher production cost but uh recently that's kind of turned around we've seen production costs falling with the price of gold continuing to rise so I think that ultimately that's going to really play well into margins for these companies but if you look at the PE of these stocks like look at Newmont mining it's at a PE of 12 A2 and barck gold it has a p of 12.8 these are ridiculously low valuation for these stocks where you have a S&P trading you know closer to a 30p historically uh newon and and and Barrack trade at premiums to the S&P not you know huge discounts so the main reason I think that gold stocks are still this cheap has to do with investor confidence or lack of it I just don't think there's any interest in buying these stocks and so they're very cheap because nobody wants them people would rather buy the S&P they would rather buy Tech stock they would rather buy Bitcoin and so there's very little investor Demand right now for these gold stocks despite the fact that their business models are working and they're a lot more profitable than they were a few years ago uh but if investors don't care about the profitability and they don't share an optimistic outlook for the future price of gold because they just think Gold's going to crash for whatever reason even though it's been steadily increasing for 25 years it's been it's been climbing a wall of worry uh you know the expect ation has always been that price of Gold's going down not up and it keeps confounding Expectations by Rising anyway uh so that's really why gold stocks are cheap I mean because I think investors have got it wrong and they being mispriced but that's the opportunity in the sector you buy the stocks when nobody wants them and you hold them until everybody does and then you can sell them at a much higher price so that's what I've been doing I've been holding them for a long time waiting for people to figure this out it's taking them longer than I thought to come to the correct conclusion but the longer it takes the higher the price is going to be when they finally figure it out and so the more money that I'll make I think and the more money that people who are doing the same thing so you know I've got a fund the europacific gold fund which you know I would en encourage people to own uh you can buy at no load at sh fidela you got to buy the no load class so you can contact my guys at your Pacific Asset Management we also have separately managed accounts in Gold stocks uh I think these are going to be uh the 50 100 Baggers I think you know the junior mining sector is completely unloved and as cheap as it's ever been if you buy the right stocks I think you you you can really hit it out of the park um you know but you know you got to be willing to take the risk there's no guarantees especially when you're you're mining for gold but I don't think it's a danger to gold in fact if anything it may ultimately help gold because uh of all the money wasted on bitcoin it contributes to inflation it contributes to making an economy less competitive uh and less productive you know if we waste all of our money on bitco coin and figuring out how to trade Bitcoin and mine Bitcoin and you know whatever those are resources that can't be invested productively to produce things that people actually need uh and they actually want uh and so uh Bitcoin is probably good for gold uh you know it's bad for the people who buy Bitcoin because they could have bought gold instead now I know yes the people who bought Bitcoin uh years ago instead of gold have made a lot more money on paper the problem is most people who bought Bitcoin are not selling any of their Bitcoin because they think it's going to keep going up indefinitely and so they haven't actually realized any of those gains uh the smart people are selling they're the ones that bought you know 10 years ago you know at a much lower price and yeah they're cashing out they're laughing all the way to the bank uh you know but the hotal gang is going to be left holding the bag I think the main reason that Donald Trump embraced crypto was to get the votes of the crypto Community especially young people who typically vote Democrat and now they had a reason to vote Republican because the Republican candidate was promising to make them Rich uh and so he got a lot of votes but he also got a lot of campaign donations that he needed from the crypto industry and so what he's doing now is paying back those donors by promoting Bitcoin and talking positively about a Bitcoin Reserve so that the people who donated to his campaign can cash in on that investment by selling Bitcoin into all this height now whether or not he actually follows through uh with a Bitcoin Reserve which really to me is an act of treason I think it's a terrible thing to do to the country uh you know to reward a handful of crypto buyers at the expense of the entire country uh by by wasting uh money by going into debt uh to buy nothing uh so I really hope that Trump uh doesn't do this I I I think that the Lumis bill is going nowhere I don't think there's any support for that bill outside of maybe a handful of people in the house or the Senate so I think the only way there's a Bitcoin Reserve is if Trump does it on his own by some kind of executive order if that's even uh constitutional uh but I hope that that doesn't happen you know I mean like I've got no problem if people want to buy Bitcoin I mean I think it's a foolish thing to do I think it's a digital pyramid scheme a chain letter blockchain letter I think a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and I think it's bad for society that we're squandering this money but you know it's a free country supposedly you're free to squander your money
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