저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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정부 셧다운 종료가 금 $100 상승의 촉매였으며, 재정 확대와 통화 증발이 지속돼 금·은이 신고가를 낼 가능성이 크다. 반면 비트코인 버블은 꺼지는 중이며 암호화폐 관련 주식과 비트코인 재무 기업들이 큰 손실을 볼 것이라 주장한다. 비트코인이 10만 달러 아래로 떨어지면 5만 달러까지 하락할 수 있다고 전망한다.
다듬은 글
But the fact that so many silver stocks are basically in bear markets when silver is trading at the second-highest price it has ever traded. It just shows you how quickly the sentiment soured on a sell-off. And remember, silver got down to about $46 at the low, and now we're back up to 53-plus.
Uh, and as I said, 50 is no longer the resistance. I mentioned that on the podcast I did on Friday, right after I got back from the New Orleans conference. I also mentioned that there wasn't a lot of euphoria there. I mean, yeah, there was some, but it was tempered, and a lot of people were worried about a bigger correction. A lot of people were talking about taking profits.
What I was saying is that the mistake people are going to make in this bull market is taking profits too soon. Now, sure, traders could have sold and bought back these gold stocks. They did have a big enough pullback. In fact, you could still buy back in even if you got out right at the top.
But most people aren't going to get back in. They're going to get out, and they'll be waiting for a bigger correction. Corrections are generally very swift. Maybe they're shallow and they're over with. A lot of people who probably bailed out aren't back in yet, and the next thing they know, we're going to be at record highs.
Now, certainly in the metals themselves, silver could easily hit a new record high this week. Gold is a little further from its high. Gold still has a couple hundred dollars to go, because I think gold almost hit 5,400. So we need a bigger rally in gold than we do in silver, but they're both likely to make new highs.
And I'm going to get into some of the fundamentals, because there were a lot of very bullish news items in the market. Of course, one of them is the end of the government shutdown. I mentioned on the last podcast that it looked likely the shutdown would end, and by Monday morning it was pretty much a done deal.
That was really the catalyst for the $100 rise in the price of gold. A $100-plus move was the end of the government shutdown. Now, a lot of people might have thought intuitively, well, wouldn't that be bad for gold? Wasn't gold going up because the shutdown was bad for the economy? It was creating uncertainty, and that was benefiting gold. So once that uncertainty was behind us, once the government reopened and that was good for the economy, that would hurt gold. That's what a lot of people might have thought.
But the opposite happened, because the government reopening isn't bad for gold. It's the government staying open that's bad for gold. When the government is open, it's doing bad stuff. It's spending a lot of money. It's borrowing a lot of money. It's printing a lot of money. The problem with the shutdown was that we didn't shut down enough government. Maybe if we shut down a lot more government, that might have been bad for gold.
But the fact of the matter is it's business as usual in Washington, D.C., and that's good for gold, because it means the reckless spending is going to continue. The money printing is going to continue. So inflation is going to get worse. The dollar is ultimately going to crack, and all of this is bullish for gold and bullish for silver.
But before I get to some of the other things that happened, I also want to juxtapose what's happening in gold and silver right now with what's happening in crypto, Bitcoin, and the whole crypto industry. This is also happening in general, because the Dow Jones hit another new record high today.
We're getting closer to a 50,000 Dow, which doesn't really mean much in the context of $4,000 gold, right? The media won't talk to you about that, but we're at around 48,250 on the Dow. So the Dow hit a new record high today, but the NASDAQ was flat to slightly lower on the day. So you're seeing more of a rotation continuing out of growth, particularly technology stocks, which had problems last week and are having more problems again this week.
So some money is coming out of the tech sector. But before people started moving money out of tech, they were moving it out of crypto. Crypto is number one, because the crypto bubble is deflating. There's a lot more air that's going to come out of this thing. But the country that leads in crypto is the country with the most to lose when the bubble pops.
Because we're the leader in crypto, we're going to lead in the economic damage from the bursting of this bubble, right? There are going to be significant implications for the US economy, which is also good for gold, because all the losses and malinvestments that get exposed will help gold. And of course, a lot of people who work in the crypto industry are going to be out of work. So unemployment is going to go up. A lot of negative things are going to happen.
I don't know if it's as big as the bursting of the dot-com bubble, or maybe it will be bigger. But if the AI bubble bursts along with the crypto bubble, that's going to dwarf the dot-com bubble. I do think the crypto bubble is bigger than the dot-com bubble all by itself. We did get into a recession when the dot-com bubble popped, although we also had the September 11th terrorist attacks. But I think we're already in recession.
So all the job losses and investment losses, and remember, people are going to react to this reverse wealth effect. If Bitcoin cracks 100,000... I know it dipped below it last week, down to 99, but they were able to circle the wagons and prop it up. If we crack and make a really big drop in Bitcoin, even at 50,000, which is still a really high price for nothing, the losses are going to be substantial.
And of course, if Bitcoin goes to 50,000, a lot of these stocks that are down 70% are going to be down 95%. Some of them are going to be down 100% because they'll go bankrupt. I think a lot of these Bitcoin treasury companies that bought up a lot of Bitcoin are going to be selling it at big losses. When all these Bitcoin buyers turn into Bitcoin sellers, look out.
And of course, the biggest seller of them all will be MicroStrategy. I don't know how long Saylor can hold out, probably longer than most, but eventually he's going to be selling Bitcoin. This is a key thing to watch.
For those of you who watch my podcast, I've been saying this for a while. I know Bitcoin has gone up a lot, but over the past four years, it hasn't. For all the people who were talking about the end of the bull market, there has only been one day when we had a higher price. Yet despite that, there are plenty of silver stocks still in bear market territory.
People need to wake up and smell the tulips and realize this trade is over. All the big money has been made. Now the key is to get out. That's what they're trying to do. That's what all this stuff was about. That's why they needed Trump in office. They needed the US government to pump this thing up so they could dump. Get out. It's above 100,000. You'll thank me later.
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