저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed의 금리 인하와 QT 조기 종료를 비판하며 인플레이션 재가속과 달러 약세를 주장. 금이 4,000달러대로 치솟는 것을 Fed가 너무 느슨하다는 신호로 해석. 장기금리 상승과 달러 탈피 흐름이 금 강세를 뒷받침하고, 결국 QE 재개로 이어질 것으로 봄. 비트코인은 수익 창출 능력이 없는 자산이라 하락 위험이 크며 과도한 레버리지 해소 전 붕괴 가능성 경고. 2007년 서브프라임 경고 때처럼 현재 금 급등이 큰 위기의 전조라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Well, first of all, I I think the Fed stopped hiking rates prematurely, so that was a mistake. And cutting them now is an even bigger mistake. Look, inflation is too high. It's at least 50% above the Fed's target and headed up. Uh that calls for higher rates. Gold at $4,000 is screaming that the Fed is too loose and it needs to hike rates.
Back when Allan Greenspan was Fed chair, he said he used gold as a barometer of whether or not he had the right interest rate. And he said if gold was at 400, it meant he was too loose. So what does 4,000 mean? Plus, I think it's an even bigger mistake that they're prematurely ending quantitative tightening.
The balance sheet is still 6.7 trillion. If you recall, uh, Ben Bernaki told the US Congress that we were not monetizing debt because he said that the increase in the Fed's balance sheet was temporary and that all the bonds that the Fed was buying during the crisis would be sold back into the market when the crisis ended.
Well, at the end of QE3, the balance sheet was 4 trillion. We're a lot bigger than that now. And that proves that Ben Bernaki was lying to the US Congress. We are monetizing debt and that's why we have such a big inflation problem that's going to get worse by these rate cuts. Let's get our other guest in here.
Andy, uh, I want your reaction to these words that turn the market on its head, but also pal talking about, as he was saying, ending quantitative tightening during his press conference on December 1st. Listen to this. The balance sheet is shrinking at a very very slow pace now. We we've reduced it by half twice.
uh and so there's not a lot of benefit to be you know to be holding on for to get the last few dollars because you know uh again the balance sheets the reserves are going to continue to shrink as non-reserves grow so you know there was support on the committee as we thought about it to go ahead with this and and announce effective December 1 that we will be you know freezing the size of the balance sheet and that the December one date gives the markets a little bit of time to adapt.
Well, gold's going a lot higher because the value of the dollar is going a lot lower. I mean, the Fed has made it clear uh that it doesn't care about inflation, that the 2% target uh no longer exists. The Fed is easing into rising inflation. And I think the bond market is figuring this out. That's probably the most problematic reaction today.
Look at the big increase in long-term interest rates following this rate cut. And in fact, I think this is going to continue. And I think the yield on a 10-year out to the 30-year are going to be quite a bit higher uh when the FOMC meets again in December. And I think the bond market is basically saying, you know, we don't believe uh you know, the the the rate cuts.
Uh we don't believe that inflation is headed back down to 2%. Uh and so we don't want to buy these long-term bonds. And this is part of the ddollarization trade uh that is continuing to push more and more money into gold. And I think later in the year and next year, you're going to start to see significant and broadway based US dollar weakness against other fiat currencies and even more weakness in the bond market which is going to bring the Fed back to quantitative easing.
I think ending QT is just the first step towards re you know relaunching quantitative easing and I think that's what the markets are also sensing which is why the price of gold is going much much higher. I going to put my assets to preserve their value. Not necessarily looking for the best new thing, but looking for a way to to protect yourself from debasement from from inflation.
That's what that what people should be focused on. I just think though that and you guys, you know, could just watch out for this over the next several weeks, couple of months. But, you know, I think what happened on on Friday, you know, late in the day with the tokens and Bitcoin, I don't know that that was a one-off thing just related to Trump's post, that could be just a dress rehearsal for what's about to happen in crypto.
It's possible that gold is pricking that bubble. And I think the risk is high right now of a major crash in that market. I mean, probably higher than I think the risk has been since I can recall that the bottom could just drop out of this market. You have so many people so bullish, so long, so leveraged, thinking nothing can go wrong.
And to me, it looks like it's an accident waiting to happen. Well, that leverage got flushed on Friday. I don't think the leverage is anywhere near flush. Yeah. You know, I think this is really kind of a put up or shut up moment for Bitcoin because, you know, for years it's been hyped up as digital gold, as a hedge against dollar debasement, inflation, and Bitcoin is now in a pretty big bare market, priced in gold.
It's down more than 25% as we speak from where it was in August. And so, gold is making record highs. Silver is breaking out to record highs. The world is ddollarizing. massive deficits as far as the eye can see. Fed cutting rates into rising inflation. All this is very negative for for the dollar and central banks are getting out of dollars but they're buying gold.
Uh bigger investors are now starting to look for hedges and and they're buying gold. And what's Bitcoin? I mean, if Bitcoin is not a store of value, if it's not a safe haven, if it's just a tech stock, well, what kind of tech stock is it when it has not only does it have no earnings? Because there are some tech stocks that also don't have earnings, but it has no prospect of ever having earnings.
At least when you buy a tech stock, you're you're betting on the potential for future earnings. Bitcoin has no potential to earn anything. So, yeah. I mean, one point, two, actually two points on a digital digitized gold. The good thing about it is it's actually still gold. It represents ownership of real gold.
And what digital gold does is it improves on the monetary properties of gold. It makes it more funible, more portable, and better to use as a medium of exchange. Right? So that's what you're talking about actual tokenized gold and not the the nickname of Bitcoin as right. I'm talking about real gold that you own,
but you own it through a token that you can exchange with other people. But yeah, I get it that the Trump family has taken a big stake in Bitcoin. That's another argu problem I have with the Trump administration. But, you know, I think that the biggest consensus trade right now where you have the the most can't lose only can go up attitude is in Bitcoin for the reasons that James just mentioned.
It seems like everything has gone right. There's nothing that can possibly go wrong. And that's when the market goes in the other direction. And I would say that given all that Bitcoin has going for it as far as hype and the the polit the politics behind it with all that, why isn't it going up now? Why is it going down?
Why is it collapsing? I think that's a warning sign that the bottom's about to drop out of this. You know, Bitcoin and gold going up for I think different reasons. But, you know, I was just listening to Scott Bessett was interviewed just before we started talking and he was asked about the rise in gold and if he's concerned about it and he completely brushed it off and says there's nothing to worry about.
Are you do you like gold? Are you interested? Well, of course, but let me finish my point here. But Scott Bessett basically, no, we don't. It does it's not a warning sign. Everything is great. We're cutting government spending. The US economy is great. Inflation is is is gone. So gold's going up for reasons having nothing to do with inflation or a loss of confidence in the US.
I mean completely dilusional. And then he went on to praise Allen Greenspan as the maestro as a great Fed chairman without even realizing that Allan Greenspan is the main reason we had the 2008 financial crisis. It was his reckless monetary policy that fueled that housing bubble and the mortgage finance bubble.
And yet he doesn't even get that. And because that he wants the Federal Reserve to do the same thing that Greenspan did. He wants rate cuts and more money printing. And he has no idea that the crisis that's coming is going to be much worse than the financial crisis that the Fed helped create before.
This is going to be a sovereign debt and a US dollar crisis. And I think what's happening in gold right now is ve very reminiscent of what happened in subprime in 2007 which really was, you know, foretold the '08 crisis. And when that warning bell went off, nobody believed it. Nobody on Wall Street, nobody at the Fed, uh, Ben Bernaki said, "Don't worry about subprime.
It's contained." And I was saying, "Nope. This is the tip of an iceberg. Get ready for a major financial crisis." And it hit the following year. I think gold surging like this every day going up.
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