저자: FrancisHunt/MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Hunt는 금이 4,400~5,600 대범위 박스권 내 횡보 중이며 5,000이 핵심 레벨이라고 봄. 은은 중간선 아래로 약세지만 정상적 리듬으로 해석. 오일은 장기적으로 금 대비 상대가치 하락 지속 전망, 이번 위기는 유가 문제가 아닌 부채·사모신용 위기라고 주장. Faber는 법정화폐 구매력 장기 하락을 주장하며 금 장기 강세(2만~3만 달러 장기 전망)를 제시하나, 단기적으로 4,000~3,000 하락 가능성도 언급. 본인은 매월 금속 매수, 달러 현금도 보유.
다듬은 글
I'm someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years. And I buy every month some. And I also tell people that uh they should own some precious metals because if they don't own it, they trust central banks. And look at the characters that sit in these central banks. Would you trust them?
That uh Probably not. But but um The capital preservation assets, the monetary assets is gold and it will outperform um consumables, consumer consumables such as energy uh as an asset class. It's a monetary metal. It is money in a period that excess phony money in the form of USTs, that's treasuries, and USDs are in a period of debasement.
However, consumables will go up The current structure, according to trader and the Market Sniper founder Francis Hunt, is a large continuing range rather than a finished trend. Gold has been fluctuating between important levels with some positions serving as crucial structural and psychological turning points.
Consistent purchasing at lower levels in response to repeated attempts to break above resistance points to a market that is absorbing positions rather than committing to a clear direction. However, silver presents a somewhat different narrative. It has had difficulty regaining vigor after peaking close to 120 and declining toward the mid-60s.
It is currently hovering considerably below its midpoint around 92. Early in the cycle, this relative weakness is common and not always indicative of a negative outlook. Hunt notes that silver typically follows gold holding off on taking more aggressive action until it has received confirmation. Silver's current lag is part of a typical market rhythm, even though some would read its behavior as a negative continuation.
The larger gold structure does not support a significant downside prospect. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and ring the bell for the latest analysis on gold and silver markets. There's for a period a bit of a blow-off move and then a harsh sell-off. Let's go with Fatter Cookie just so that pops for you a bit more.
So, the final run-off into the 5,600 and then the smackdown to the 4,400. Now, we mentioned the fib, we're going to leave it up there, which is the current high. There's the 5 6 Typically, law of round numbers a nose across the line. The sprinter never runs up to the 100-m line, he runs through it. 5,602 as shown on OANDA.
It might vary on your broker platform. The low 4402 down here, you can see that the midpoint, the 50%, is $2 above the 5,000 mark. The 5,000 mark is the most significant key level of significance for gold uh between 1,000 and 10,000. And then I'll probably say 7.5 uh but that's getting into the the lower weeds in terms of all of that.
Uh 5,000 is a massive massive level. Um we also highlighted on the gold versus the euro that you had an upside HVF that made a beautiful performance to target there. Profit should have been taken. It's part of a inside of the range wind-up that gave you a localized high still within the range before a sell-off period that saw the gap gap be closed.
You also had a nice little fractal that was at our second interim that helped provide the boost to get you through to that target. Remember that was on the gold euro and the gold Aussie dollar uh because this was slightly higher on the dollar. It's a less than perfect setup uh and we wouldn't have traded that given the better setup that we had.
The funneling all occurred, yes, you guessed it, at the key levels of significant significance if we can get our words out today. That was in and around the build-up just to the 5,000 level. So, at that point you were failing to hold the 5,000 level for any significant period. Every time you ran it, you were being backed off.
There you go. There you go. And then sitting set get get ready go go go. You had the look one way, the test to the downside, and the fat that is volume that makes it fat push up to the second interim. Then you got the winding-up structure and you got a marginally larger by width somewhat fat uh candle that had the gap into the Sunday open that was the in the sudden hostilities and the supply chain related uh aspects.
Then, post the fact of the war, actually you had dissipation as oil dominated the liquidity demand. And other [snorts] thoughts also, of course, slipping under the radar to some degree is the private credit uh aspects of this that is all um been very very interesting. And as we've highlighted on our tweet feed uh or X post that in the end this is a debt-based crisis.
I want to keep this largely technical and talk to talk about the precious metals, but I do also need to remind people that the private credit is just a fancy new Wall Street ruse for doing excess fiat proliferation creating a boom-bust cycle uh that invariably enriches themselves where they uh privatize the gains on the upside of the expansion and they socialize the losses to the downside.
This is the modus operandi every single time. Think about where else you use that phrase every single time. Um so, what's actually happening right now is you have no clear drivers and you've got a couple of hammers with buy-up wicks below the 5,000 level. So, it's quite clear that below 5,000 on a low interest period in precious metals, there it is being bid up uh steadily.
We're currently trading 515 um at the moment. So, what do I suspect happens next? So, people have said, "Oh, you gone suddenly very quiet." You get all this clever dickism in the comments from the lowest common denominator. I recognize that most people watching aren't like that. No, when you get in a major expansion in volatility, it's no longer an interesting period for us to update and talk on metals.
We've actually been trading other things. If you want to find out what we've been trading, please feel free to click a link uh and book a call. We respect uh our premium members first and foremost and we serve them first and foremost. When there's nothing much to report apart from that small winding-up setup, which we gave everybody an opportunity to participate in with targets on the gold Aussie and euro, there's nothing much more to say.
It's going to get you up in the range, but for now we're trading in the range. The range is the high of 5 6 and the recent localized low of 4,400. This was a big event and it's going to take some time before you move on, but move on you will. Gold will outperform oil. And continue to say so uh despite the fact that obviously you've had a little bit of a catch-up moment on oil valuation versus gold.
Uh gold will outperform perform oil. Oil is a consumable and it is uh the world is full of it. There is no peak oil, by the way. It's not lazy aged dinosaur bones for which there's a finite amount and we've now sucked up all the Stegosaurus uh um juice. Um no, sir. No, sir. Three bags full. Uh it is never It does go up when gold goes up because those are typically associated when you look at the big time frames.
Those are typically associated with fiat debasement periods, which is also known as high inflation periods. Um so, there is a correlation in terms of if you look at the big charts when they both go up and down. In the longer term, when all this debt has been uh and financialization has started to take place, the capital preservation asset, the monetary asset is gold and it will outperform um consumables, consumer consumables such as energy uh as an asset class.
It's a monetary metal. It is money in a period that excess phony money in the form of USTs, that's treasuries, and USDs are in a period of debasement. However, consumables will go up as part of the cost of living. So, you get a lot of people saying to you, "You said oil would go down." Yes, we said initially it would go down relatively and and nominally it did go down from when we called it at $87 to 56.
But now it's and it's also it's gone down hugely in relative valuations to gold uh extensively. And it's had its first reversal after smashing our targets and overperforming. But it my suspicion is it's going to continue to extend its relative valuation in due course while people get over the fact that they think this is an oil crisis.
It's a fiat and debt crisis and that will rear its head soon enough and private credit is the fraying edge of the weakest credit that the Wall Street cartel created as a asset class uh for numbskulls to invest in. Understanding long-term monetary cycles is crucial. According to renowned macro investor Mark Faber, who is known for his cautious market outlooks, he makes the argument that whereas real assets like gold have historically preserved value, paper money tends to lose purchasing power over time.
According to this viewpoint, even though prices occasionally declined, the current gold bull market may still have significant potential. Although gold has already surpassed $5,000 per ounce, falls to $4,000 or even $3,000 might yet occur as part of typical market swings. However, persistent global debt build-up, currency depreciation, and expansive monetary policies may eventually drive gold to historically unheard of amounts.
Some long-term projections place it at $20,000 to $30,000. . I'm someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years. And I buy every month some. And I also tell people that uh they should own some precious metals because if they don't own it, they trust central banks. And look at the characters that sit in these central banks.
Would you trust them? Definitely not. But but um I'm also holder of dollars because I have a financial business. And I buy and sell securities. And occasionally I have a liquidity uh because of my views and occasionally I have liquidity because I sold a position that we own and so forth. Anyway, the bulk is still nowadays in US dollars.
I have some portfolios which I value in euros. And I have some portfolios I value in Swiss francs. And the valuations will fluctuate a lot depending on the assets. And uh it fluctuates frequently in unexpected ways. I As I said, I have a very large exposure into precious metals. But the time may come where I would say I put all in precious metals.
I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs. They have 80% of their assets in gold and gold uh in precious metals. My preference is to own precious metals. But I see the necessity of paper money for the purpose of buying and selling goods because you know, you go into a department store, you need a a unit of account to buy something.
And for that unit of account, paper money is suitable. But it would seem to me that paper money is not suitable as a store of value because the purchasing power of money, and I can say that I look at the prices I paid in the '50s and '60s when I was growing up and the prices I have to pay now. Uh of course, paper money has lost purchasing power.
On the other hand, assuming I put all the money on deposit in treasury bills and I rolled it over, or I put it all in gold, then the purchasing power was probably better maintained. Do you understand? With the accumulating interest. Yeah. Uh so so the calculations are not so easy. Mhm. But uh in general, if you look at history, the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero.
Always. Because when problems arise in a social system that knows money, the solution to the problems the optimal solutions would be tight monetary policy and default. But these measures are so painful on society that the rulers or the politicians will not choose them because the the the principle uh concern of a ruler, king, or lord, or emperor, or a democracy is to stay in power, for the party to stay in power.
So they use the method of printing money to overcome the near-term problems and they say to themselves, "Well, uh we'll solve that issue later." Mhm. But once you embark on money printing, and this I want to observe and really emphasize, once you embark on money printing like Bernanke did in December 2008, you cannot stop it without significant pain.
And this significant pain is avoided by printing more. Now, in the theory of economics in the classical theory, it's shown that you need to print increasing quantity to keep the system going. Like as you know, the interest payments on the government debt has gone through the roof. I think it will continue to go up.
And soon it could be the entire budget. Yeah. At that time, what else do you want than print money? Although he prefers to hold precious metals, Marc Faber notes that he understands the usefulness of paper money in daily life. Since gold coins cannot be used to pay for goods at a department store, money is a necessary means of exchange.
However, paper money has historically fared poorly as a store of value. Faber continues by outlining the reasons behind the constant depreciation of paper money. Theoretically, perfect remedies to economic or social problems such as strict monetary rules or defaults are politically unpopular. Whether they are monarchs, emperors, or democratically elected politicians, leaders typically prioritize maintaining their position of authority, so they print more money to temporarily address issues while pledging to address the fallout later.
Once money printing starts, it's quite hard to stop it without seriously hurting the economy. Governments keep printing in order to avert the suffering, which result in continuous currency depreciation. Faber promotes holding precious metals as a hedge against currency devaluation and the dangers of putting your trust in central banks because of this history.
He urges individuals to invest a portion of their fortune in gold or silver, and he personally purchases metals each month. But he also keeps cash on hand, mostly in US dollars, for pragmatic purposes including managing liquidity and operating his financial company. He points out that some investors, true gold bugs, own as much as 80% of their assets in gold, even if he hasn't yet invested all of his money in precious metals. .
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