저자: RaamdeoAgrawal—ZeeBusiness출연 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장은 장기 상승 여력이 크며 지금은 투자하기 좋은 시기라는 낙관론. 시장 전망: 닉스티(Nifty)는 2028~2030년 사이 4만 포인트 도달 가능성을 언급하며 단기 등락보다는 40년 장기 관점 유지를 강조. 연 12~15% 성장 전제 하에 시장이 5년 횡보할 가능성도 있다고 봄. 기업 실적·경기: 은행·금융 섹터 실적 강함, 2분기 이후 둔화 가능성 언급. 이륜차 수요 양호(히어로모토코프 등), GST 징수액 증가, 제조업 PMI 양호, 인플레이션 통제권 진입. 세계은행의 글로벌 성장률 상향(1.7→2.1%)을 긍정 요인으로 제시. 수급: 국내 기관·개인 자금 유입이 향후 10년간 시장 비중을 5~6%까지 키울 것으로 전망. 프로모터 매도 등 공급 증가는 건강한 과정으로 해석. 금리민감주: 자동차, 부동산은 지난 12개월 기저효과로 성장률 낮음. 부동산은 수요 견조, 중가 주택 중심 호조 언급. 은행: 마진 최고, 신용비용 최저 구간. 신용 확장이 아직 본격화되지 않아 추가 상승 여지 있다고 봄(단, 과열 우려 언급). 신규 이커머스·퀵커머스: 수익모델 아직 불확실하나 소매(리테일) 시장 규모(약 7000억 달러)를 근거로 장기 기회 강조, 향후 1~2개 대형 기업 등장 가능성. 리스크: 글로벌 경기 둔화, 밸류에이션 부담(이익 대비 선행 상승) 언급. 장기 유지 전략 권고.
다듬은 글
While there may still be market concerns in markets around the world, fear of inflation, or speculation about when the price hikes will stop, the Indian market is making lifetime highs with tremendous strength. You're wondering where we've reached, but Nifty is so far away. Bank Nifty has barely reached 200 points, and the smile on your face is seen moving towards new highs every day.
So, we've started a special series. Yes, when the market is near its lifetime high, if you trade there, it's very important for you to understand what's next. What to do next? Buy now, invest money, maintain profit, and if you want to do all this, where to do it, how to do it. That's why we're going to start this series with the market expert and India's biggest expert of Ved Creation, Motilal Oswal, founder and chairman of Definition Services, Ramdev Agarwal.
He's with us in this video today. Sir, a very warm welcome to you after a long time. If we are meeting in the studio, then generally when we meet for a long time, then we ask about the movement, come on, you have to tell about the market, you have to build your wealth, if it is building well, then your condition is good, if you tell us about the market condition, then we will know what is happening in the future, yes, as you said about lifetime, so if wealth is good, health is good, then everything is good, first of all I am looking at everything starting with health, then this market keeps on increasing at 12, 13, 14 percent, tell me, right now your 18000 assistant friend, his Nifty is 37, 38, 40000, you understand this is 23, so you will see the index of ₹40000 anytime between 28 to 30, now when will that happen, how will it happen, at what speed will it happen, between 2028 to 2030, the target of Nifty is made around 40 thousand, it seems that brother, keep in mind the time period of 40 years, then invest after that, this time market There is no need to stay outside, yes this is the second headline, you have to buy stocks from outside, you have to buy growth stocks, value stocks, but it is very important that you are inside the market because whatever time the market looks like, it is possible that like last year we had thought that we will make 10-15%, it did not happen.
If valuation collection is done from that much then it is very good, what is the problem with that, the market will be current for a year, now this year I feel that it has come from running above the earnings, it is possible that the market may also run in 17-18-20, it is possible that the market is flat for 5 years, but the more it stops, the more your money is accumulating, that is our recurring deposit, that is with us and regret, that will run in 2023, right now our 23-24, but is everything going so well, the economy is recovering, your view of this becomes positive, earning sir shopping, we solutions are reasonable best, absolutely great time, absolutely first class time and usually sir does not even know the level of Sensex Nifty, many times when I ask me before the show, hey, tell me what is the level, but today sir said that if it should remain at this speed till 2018-200, then you can also see the appointment of ₹40000, it is not a big deal sir, you told many reasons, I Let me come to them one by one, first of all the thing that you always look at the most is whether the business in which you want to invest is working or not, this running season, real season is also over, after looking at this region you are more confident about the earnings of our company than before Positive was there in the banking and finance sector, it is very strong, it will be seen more strongly in this quarter, the first quarter of last year was bad, so this time there will be huge deltas.
In the June quarter, after that, it means there will be a carefree period and it will slow down a bit, so see what is happening, the biggest thing is that the recovery was cash, earlier there was all the discussion, there were Apaar and items, it was being done, but motorcycles were not sold, now that is becoming a bit wide spirit, okay shops are not visible, it seems that no country white spread recovery, finally trial do, there is reach to the village at the lower level because I am seeing that the demand for two wheelers is very good right now, you see Hero MotoCorp, all these are correct, brother, their demand was very good in April and probably June is also going very well, so looking at this, it seems that no recovery Vikram, good, your credit after, the bread number is also 13 14% 15%, well, on top of that, you see that the GST collection, which someone can do fake, every math, it is coming, 1507 thousand crores first month of the year after 187 so this is also very good and I think how is the 12% confidence last then the return that will come next month is also good from all sir, you see the PM for infection, services are 62 63, manufacturing is very good since 2015 and inflation is under control, interest rates have also picked up, right now I am enjoying it, I will have to go shopping in the market and for you shopping happens when the market is a little cool or loose, but now even then there is a strong environment here, so one reason you have mentioned is that the company's earnings are strong and tax collection is there, but looking at our situation, that is, the scene becomes wide and looking at the outside situation, it seems that the matter becomes loose, today the World Bank has also said that they are increasing the global growth estimates, they are increasing it from 1.7% to 2.1% for this year, so our loss is 6.6 to 6.3 something like this, so will this not happen sir, we were strong, if the outside economy and If it grows more, then whatever sectors we have, those which are dependent on the global market, their growth will increase further.
Sir, I am doing all of that. Ask these people how they are doing the calculations, but whatever they are saying about 6, 26, 3, they are such point three point four plus mines, so whatever they say a year ago, its direction is known, but then the focus is on increasing that much location. Now from here, in the next 10 years, the next 10 years are the most important, no matter who is investing, then in the next 10 years, it will become five to six percent in the Indian Gadda world.
Now, how do you allocate in that, I mean, if you stop at one percent, then allocations will come in large numbers and when it comes, they go in wholesale and they will come, then correct in the house, you sell without looking at the price and will do it without looking at the price. Now when will that happen, then this stampede will be avoided when another local market is formed, our investors have matured, in the beginning everyone says that it is Robin Hood.
Robin is happening in 2020, this big matured money did not turn out to be, now on one side consider it local, on the other side when the fees go, these two engines will fire together, what is there in this, these promoters, domestic promoters, they will supply a little for them, new supplies will come in which is a very healthy process, it is the rule of the market that brother, if the market goes up then you should get new supply, so the market also gets bread break from it, the companies which have not been EPU and when did they happen, all those companies are lines or all those who are excited about private equity will be there, so clearly the money which is currently listed in private will be free here and then it will go and come to private also and on this side, the promoters who feel that brother, I have to buy a big house right now, friend, I have to do something else, so give the bill also, cup supplying on profit booking from promoter side, that will also happen, so like that, but the level will keep increasing, when will the fish come, they will tell you exactly when they will come, they will come, meaning there is no benefit in asking them, there is no person there, there is some Jabsedar of five, like that There is no one, you are seeing that trade is being made, everyone has a condition and ultimately GDP growth rate and copper profit will come in a very sustainable manner, so there is no choice, talking about auto, it has been your favorite actor too, but all the rate sensitive stocks, banks and real estate which are related to the Indian economy, amazing numbers, amazing growth, should this space still remain, what was theirs, it was bad in the last 12 months, they mean it is basic, like two wheelers etc., theirs was not that good as compared to the last, this is the first year, so their base is down, from where is the growth rate looking match, it is looking like this till 25, which you will see by 12th November next year, then it will be stuck at 12-15%, so clearly sustainable rate is not 2025 but more 10, 12%, 13%, this type of thing will come, so but like you talked about real estate in rate sensitive, then in real estate, first of all there was duty cut over in the beginning So, I thought it was happening because of that now, but the demand is sustainable, it is sustainable cross India, so I think real estate is a very big sector and like the welfare in the market also comes from the market, some portion of that also goes to real estate, so this time, hasn't there been that much deep collection in the market for a year, like last over D flat, friend, it was stopped, what happened to that, so you people, whoever wants to withdraw 20 crores from 10 crores, have very easily invested in mid-range real estate, so in this way, now the supply required for real estate is being received, a lot of that is getting transferred, I am asking for stock, sir, so SN Market Gojup, from here, small 18000 becomes 2022000, I am relieved that it will have a big impact, you have to come to real estate in a very realistic way, well, I want to take your opinion on banks, there are two types of views, one is that the business is strong, everything is on the other side Many people say that the dangerous margins are picking up and now we should wait a bit.
So what is your view on the banking sector? Look at the banking sector, we always meet bankers and every week we meet them, so everyone is saying that brother sir, dream run, right, no, dream run, yes, I mean, highest margin and lowest credit cost, so good, demand is very good, ask Sunny about demand, absolutely correct.
Secondly, whatever they had written off during the court period, all of that is also getting recovered, their rates are good from all sides and the credit is very good even now. So, there is a rule of the market that brother, it has reached a peak, so it is sick legal, let's book a little profit, it may slow down a bit, but I think that credit lending has not happened yet, it has been 12 months, right now the entire court case was effective and clean, so the bank should create some expansion to start the problems of the bank and there should be wrong credit expansion, if all this has happened together, right now from here, a little when I mean, it is starting If it happens, it will be very high and there will be a lot of wrong kind of credit, that too has not started, that is the time right now, yes, that and also right now the garden is in a lot of trouble with the bank and so without doing any wrong, their money is working well, so I think even now Race 2 only, you will be at the top tomorrow, it is very interesting, you mentioned, there is still some time so soon, another space which has been in the headlines in the last one or two years, it has also broken, people have also lost a little, these new e-commerce companies which have come to ITO will be very interesting, so sir I want to know your views, what do I mean, now it has reached a good level where one should invest or should it remain cautious, it has gone a little above the good level, have you understood, sir, see what happened in digital, first of all we came very fast, we made some losses in the wrong prices, but from there there was a sharp global collection and there was collection here also, but what was supposed to happen, brother, going down, all the enterprises are thinking how to make profit, how Quickly, we are in profit, right now there is a problem as to who will show profit first, all the 810 companies listed are good companies, all are well-founded, but now the problem is that we will show it in the squad, we will show it next year, so now they are saying that they will earn profit, so now as far as profit is concerned, what is its business model, brother, their asset is light, everything has been written off, whatever cost is off, they do not have any plane machine, whatever other cement plant you set up, you set up plane or retail, you put in physical details, what is there in it, you have caps from all over the world and that in PNR, sorry balance is also relief, it comes from the offer, gradually what is there, everything is written after the last, now whatever will come, there will be a very bad profit, now see, profit has not been earned yet, promise is visible, it is visible, one or two things are also going to happen, like retail, retail means they say there is 700 billion dollar retail, which is your grocery retail, so that is an everyday thing, now what is there in that These brothers, all the marts you have [Sangeet] what is the name of Zomato, blanket linked just the other day, all of that was explained very well there, they setup their sources of fear and it is going very fast, so maybe they would have collapsed, but this other business is also becoming very interesting and there is a huge opportunity and growing opportunity, so I feel that from here also one or two big companies will be found in this segment, I mean, from the time being, annually because it is also consolidated, see, when your business is starting, earlier there used to be 25-50 companies, they gradually reduced, like when we started booking, from 500 companies it reduced to 10, 15, 20, so here from the beginning there were one or two companies in two rooms [Sangeet] so I think they only know how to create value, if the management continues to run properly, then there is money in the balance sheet, so there is also money to reduce and the new app Revolution delivery at your home Everything is being delivered, this is it
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