저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 실물경기·금리민감주(은행·자동차·부동산)에 대해 긍정적이며, 부동산 섹터는 성장 여지가 크다고 본다. 금리민감주와 인도 경기: 자동차·은행 등 금리민감 종목의 실적이 좋고 성장이 이어진다고 언급했다. 최근 12개월 부진 후 이차전지·이륜차 등은 기저효과로 성장률이 올라오지만, 지속 가능한 성장률은 20~25%가 아니라 10~13% 수준으로 본다. 부동산: 인도 전역에서 수요가 지속 가능하며 부동산은 매우 큰 섹터라고 평가했다. 금리 인상 영향으로 초기 우려가 있었으나 수요는 견조하다고 봤다. 자본 공급이 원활해지고 있어 시장이 상승하면 자산 효과가 크다고 설명했다. 은행: 은행 실적은 마진 최고, 신용비용 최저의 '드림 런' 상황이며 대출 수요도 좋다고 밝혔다. 과거 부실 상각분 회수도 진행 중이다. 다만 시장에 과열 신호가 있어 일부 이익 실현 목소리도 있다. 본격적인 과잉 대출(잘못된 신용 확대)은 아직 시작되지 않았고, 그 시점이 오면 은행 문제가 생길 수 있다는 경계도 언급했다. 아직 상승 여력은 남아 있다고 봤다. 디지털/신규 상장 기업: 최근 상장한 이커머스·신기술 기업들은 초기 고가 발행 등으로 손실을 냈지만 글로벌 조정을 거치고 있다. 자산경량 모델이라 설비 투자가 적고, 식료품 리테일(7000억 달러 규모) 등 기회가 크다. 향후 1~2개 대형 기업이 이 영역에서 등장할 것으로 봤다. 수익성 증명은 내년 이후가 될 것으로 예상했다. 출연자 전망: 인도 금리민감 섹터와 부동산에 대해 중장기적으로 낙관적이며, 신규 디지털 기업에 대해서는 수익성 확인 전까지 신중한 태도다.
다듬은 글
Sir, you talked about auto, it has also been your favorite actor, but all the rate sensitive stocks like banks, auto, real estate, which are related to the Indian economy, have amazing numbers, amazing growth, is this still the space where you need to step in, when the entire 12 months were bad, it means it is de-basic, like in two wheelers etc., theirs was as good as the last, it started in the first year, so their base is down, in the name of this, the growth rate is looking like this till 25, in which you will see 12, next year, it will settle at 12-15%, so clearly the sustainable rate is not 20-25, but more 10, 12%, 13%, this type of thing will come, so but like you talked about real estate in rate sensitive, then in real estate, first of all, there will be a tower of duty, in the beginning, people thought that it will go down because of that, but the demand is sustainable, it is sustainable across India, so in my opinion, real estate is a very big sector and as per the market also, Isn't it true that some portion of the welfare that happens in the market also goes to real estate?
Well, this time, there has n't been that much deep connection in the market all at once. So, friend, what happened was that we had stopped, whose withdrawal was very easy, they have invested in the middle real estate, so in this way, now the capital supply required for real estate is being received and a lot of that is being transferred, so today in the market goes up from here, small 18000 becomes 2022000, I am relieved, this will have a big impact, you have to come to real estate in a very realistic way, well, they have brought in two types of banks, there are two types of views which are very strong, one is that the business is strong, everything, on the other hand, many people are getting out of dangerous margins, now we should stop for a while, so what is your view, we always keep meeting, today when I met them, everyone is saying the same thing, Sir, dream run, right, no, dream run, yes, meaning highest margin and lowest credit cost, so good, there is a very good demand for Sunny.
I asked, whatever was written off during the court period is also being recovered, their situation is good from all sides and the credit is still very good, so there is a rule of the market that brother, it has reached a peak, so it is sick legal, let's book a little profit, it may slow down a bit, but I think that the credit lending has not happened yet, so it has been 12 months, in its entirety there was a court due factor and it was clean, so the bank should create some kind of expansion for the bank's problems to start and there should be wrong credit expansion, if there is a very healthy karate together, from here, when it starts a little, there will be a lot of credit and there will be a lot of wrong type of credit, that has also not started, that time is also in a lot of mess with the bank in the garden and so without doing any wrong, their money is working well, so I think that even now Race 2 only you will reach the top tomorrow, I found it interesting, you told me there is still some time, so soon another space which made big headlines in the last one or two years I have been in the news, people have also broken down, some new e-commerce companies have come up, it will be very interesting, so sir I want to know your views, what I mean is that now they have reached a good level, where one should invest or should one remain cautious, they have moved a little above the good level, have you understood, sir, see what happened in digital, first of all we came in very fast, we made some shares at wrong prices and also made losses, but from there there was a sharp global collection and here also there was collection, but what was supposed to happen, brother, going down, all the entrepreneurs are thinking how to make profit, how quickly we can make profit, right now there is a problem as to who will show profit first, all the 810 companies listed are good companies, all are well founded, but now the problem is that brother, we will show it in the squad, we will show it next year, so now they are thinking that they will make profit, so as for profit, what is there in it, what is its business model, that brother, theirs is asset light Everything has been written off.
Whatever cost is off, there is no plane machine for them. Like, whenever you set up any other cement plant, you set up a plane or retail, you set up physical details. What is there in it, you have caps from all over the world and everything runs on the PNR, sorry balance. It comes from offers, gradually.
What is there here, everything is right after the last one. Now whatever will come, there will be a very bad profit. Now see, you have not made any profit yet. As far as the promise is, your profit is more in visible form. Well, one or two things are also going to happen, like retail is 700 billion dollar retail.
Your grocery retail will come, so that is a daily thing. Now what is there in it, all these brothers, all the marts you have [sangeet], what is the name of Zomato, blanket linked, just the other day, all that is explained there very well, they setup their sources of fear and it is going very fast, so maybe they would have burst, but this other business, it is also becoming very interesting and a very big opportunity and There is a growing opportunity, so I feel that from here also one or two big companies will be found in this segment, they are going to invest 50, 100, 200 billion in a timely manner, because it is also consolidated, see, when your business was starting, earlier it was ₹2550.
They used to decrease gradually, like we had 500 companies booking initially, then it became 10, 15, 20, so here I went in two rooms from the beginning there are one or two companies, so I think if these value creators and their management keep running properly, then there is money in the balance sheet, so there is also the possibility of reducing it and our new revolution delivery, everything is being delivered at your home, this is more than the last 3, 4, 5 years
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