저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 평생 학습과 가치투자 원칙을 강조할 뿐, 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다. 영상은 멍거의 명언과 철학을 소개하는 내용이며, 자막에 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인, 금, 엔비디아 등)에 대한 가격 전망 발언은 등장하지 않는다. 핵심 주장: 평생 학습이 성공의 핵심이며, 버크셔 해서웨이의 기록도 버핏의 지속적 학습 덕분이라고 설명한다. 핵심 주장: 가치투자의 본질은 기업 전체를 적정 가격에 사는 것처럼 생각하고, 안전마진을 확보하는 것이다. 핵심 주장: 전문화가 대부분에게 유리하지만, 기본 아이디어는 10~20%의 시간을 들여 다른 분야의 큰 개념도 알아야 한다. 핵심 주장: 오래된 낡은 아이디어를 버리는 습관이 중요하며, 좋아하는 아이디어를 폐기할 때마다 스스로를 칭찬한다고 한다. 핵심 주장: 흥미 없는 일에서 성공하기 어려우므로 본인이 관심 있고 유리한 게임을 찾아야 한다. 핵심 주장: 모든 지적인 투자는 결국 가치투자이며, 중국 기업이 미국 기업보다 강하고 성장이 빠르다고 본다(국가·종목 관련 장기 견해, 구체 기간 없음). 핵심 주장: 만족 지연(검소한 저축)이 장기적으로 유리하며, 충동적인 소비는 피해야 한다. 핵심 주장: 반증 증거를 인정하고 잘못된 믿음을 바꾸는 것이 합리성의 핵심이다. 리스크/조건: 특정 가격 목표, 기간, 자산 방향에 관한 언급은 없다. 연준 정책 등 거시 이야기는 개인적 견해를 피하고 있다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 멍거는 자신과 버크셔의 과거 성과를 근거로 장기 낙관을 말하나, 단기 예측은 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
charlie munger is warren buffett's right hand man and one of the greatest investors of all time in his own right he started his career as a lawyer before discovering his passion for value investing and amassing a fortune of over 1.6 billion dollars warren buffett considers charlie munger to be one of his greatest friends and he has learned a lot from him at an incredible 96 years old charlie munger is still doing what he loves he's like the yoda of value investing extremely wise thoughtful and intelligent 15 top rules for investment success so if you appreciate this hard work is also now bear in mind charlie munger is 96 years old so he can be quite difficult to follow but if you concentrate and listen carefully you will learn so much from his valuable wisdom now let's get into the video and without lifetime learning you people are not going to do very well you are not going to get very far in life based on what you already know you're going to advance in life by what you're going to learn after you leave here if you take berkshire hathaway which is certainly one of the best regarded corporations in the world and it may have the best invest long-term investment record in the entire history of civilization the skill that got berkshire through one decade would not have sufficed to get it through the next decade with the uh achievements made without warren buffett being a learning machine continuous learning machine the record would have been absolutely impossible the same is true at lower walks of life i constantly see people rise in life who were not the smartest sometimes not even the most diligent but they are learning machines they go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that habit help particularly when you have a long run ahead of you we have to deal with things that we're capable of understanding and then once we're over that filter we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage we have the mindset of the person that's buying the whole business at the price you would realize by multiplying the price we're paying by share by the number of outstanding shares and and we want they price for the whole business so calculated to look very attractive so we like buying individual shares at a price that's lower than we think a rational person would pay if he could buy the whole business i was wondering how you can thrive as a polymath in a world that celebrates specialization well that's a good question i don't think operating over many disciplines as i do is a good idea for most people i think it's fun that's why i've done it and and i'm better at it than most people would be and i don't think i'm good at being the very best at handling differential equations so it's it's in a wonderful path for me but i think the correct path for everybody else is to specialize and and get very good at something that society rewards and they get very efficient at doing but even if you do that i think you should spend 10 or 20 percent of your time into trying to know all the big ideas and all the other disciplines otherwise i i use the same phrase over and over again otherwise you're like a one-legged man in an ass kicking contest this is not going to work very well you have to know the big ideas and all the disciplines to be safe if you have a life lived outside a cave no matter how wonderful it is it's not worth an infinite price so we have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural businessitudes of life any year in which you don't destroy one of your best loved ideas is a wasted year it's well known that you help coax warren towards quality which was a difficult transition for him i was wondering if you could speak to the hardest idea that you've ever destroyed well i've done so many dumb things but i've i i'm very busy destroying bad ideas because i keep having and so it's hard for me to just single out one from such a multitude but i actually like it when i destroy a bad idea because i think i'm on the right i think it's my duty to destroy all that i know so many people whose main problem of life is that the old ideas displace the entry of new ideas that are better that is the absolute standard outcome in life there's an old german folk saying that describes that he says we're too soon old and we're too late smart that's everybody's problem and the reason we're too late smart is the stupid ideas we always have we already have we can't get rid of now it's a good thing that we have that problem in marriage that may be good for the stability of marriage that we stick with our old ideas but in most fields you want to get rid of your old ideas and and it's it's a good habit and it gives you a big advantage in the competitive game of life since other people are so very bad at it what happens is as you spout ideas out what you're doing is you're pounding them in and so you get these ideas and then you start agitating and saying them and so forth and of course the person you're really convincing is you already have the ideas you're just pounding them in harder and harder one of the reasons i don't spend much time telling the world what i think about how the federal reserve system should behave and so forth as i know that i'm just pounding the ideas into my own head when i think i'm telling other people how to run things so i think you have to have mental habits that i don't like it when the young people get violently either get violently convinced on every damn cause or something i think they know everything some 17 year old who wants to tell the whole world what to be done without abortion or foreign policy in the middle east or something all he's doing when he he or she spouts about what he deeply believes is pounding the ideas he already has in which is a very dumb idea when you're just starting and have a lot to learn so it's very important that habit of getting rid of the dumb ideas and one of the things i do is pat myself on the back every time i get rid of a dumb idea and you say can you really reinforce your own good behavior yeah you can but other people won't praise you you can praise yourself i have a big system of patting myself on the back every time i get rid of a good a much beloved idea i pat myself on the back sometimes several times and i recommend this the same mental habit to all of you the price we pay for being able to accept a new idea is just awesomely large and then of course we would vastly prefer a management place with a lot of integrity and talent in terms of picking what to do i want to report to all of you that in my whole life i've never succeeded much in something i wasn't interested in so i don't think you're going to succeed if what you're doing all day doesn't interest you and you've got to find something you're interested in because it's just too much to expect of human nature that you're going to be very good at something you deeply dislike doing and and so that's that's one big issue and of course you have to play in a game where you've got some unusual talents you do not want to play if you're five foot one you don't want to play basketball against a guy that's eight feet three it's just too hard and so you gotta figure out a game where you you have an advantage it has to be something you're deeply interested in berkshire and warren and you were known as value investors is that not the core discipline of berkshire hathaway anymore or does that not even matter well you got to remember that in our way of thinking all intelligent investment is value investment because why would you want to buy something which wasn't worth as much as you were paying for it and who wouldn't like buying something for less than it's worth so the only difference when people talk about value invested you're always a value investor now there are various ways to look for value investments just as there are various places to fish and of the first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are the first rule of value investing is to find some place to fish for value investments you know i think the strongest companies are not in america i think the chinese companies are stronger than ours and they're growing faster and i have investments in them and you don't and and i'm right you're wrong cloning is a very interesting idea you do remove ideas from one place and bring them into another if that's cloning i do it all the time of course it's useful if i were you people to look at what other people you regard as great investors are doing for ideas the trouble with it is that if you pick people as late in the game as berkshire hathaway right you're buying our limitations caused by size sure you really need to do it from some guy that's operating in smaller places and finding places with more advantage and of course it's hard to identify the people in the small game but it's not an idea that won't work if i were you people of course i would do that i would want to know exactly what the true people were doing and i would look at every one of them of course it's obvious that deferred gratifiers do better over the long pole than these impulsive children that have to spend on money on rolex watches and other folly and not that i'm picking rolexes any worse than at a philippe or something but but i think everybody should whose adult should save and not be stupid spending money and and defer gratification to get more later and all those good things that we were taught you know by benjamin franklin thrift and so forth and the odd thing about it is that people are kind of born deferred gratifiers or not they've done recent psychological work on that subject and lots of luck if you're an impulsive person that has to be gratified immediately you're probably not going to have a very good life and we can't fix you you know i'm 18 right now i'm in college and sometimes i lose interest in what i do uh and you're 96 and you're so passionate about what you do um so what what keeps you going like what is your how do you still have the motivation thank you well maybe i've been lucky i like what i do i have wonderful partners and friends i have a nice family my problems are interesting to me i have been a very fortunate man and i don't know how to make everybody else lucky well i could have had a different hand and been some miserable alcohol like throwing up in the gutter it's it i i don't thank you very much for having us here today and sharing your wisdom and your beliefs i was hoping that you might share with us some examples of how you've used disconfirming evidence to change some of your important determinate determinedly held beliefs well of course being able to recognize when you're wrong is a godsend if you take a good bit of the monger fortune came from liquidating things we originally purchased because we were wrong of course you have to learn to change your mind when you're wrong and and i actually work at trying to discard beliefs and most people just try and cherish whatever idiotic function they already have because they think it's their notion it must be good and i think of course you want to be re-examining what you previously thought particularly when desk confirming evidence comes through and there's hardly anything more important than being rational and an objective just think of all the dumb things you can do in life think of the brilliant people who are just utterly brilliant who do some of the dumbest things oh to be 90 again charlie says all he wants to know is where he'll die so he'll never go there you know and so you but life has been awfully good to me and charlie so we have no complaints what you don't want to be is like the man and they had his funeral and the minister said now it's the time for somebody to say something nice about the deceased and nobody came forward and nobody came forward he said surely somebody can say somebody something nice about the deceased and nobody came forward and finally one man came up and he said well he said his brother was worse yeah yeah l.a i just want to win
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