저자: Kevin · 외국인
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S&P500 신고가에도 동일가중 RSP는 7주 연속 하락하며 2002·2022년과 유사한 바닥 신호라고 주장. 금리·유가·기업이익 충격이 정점을 지났으므로 금리·유가 하락 후 주식 랠리가 확대될 것이라 전망. QQQ 800 돌파 가능성과 AI 수혜주(브로드컴·엔비디아·AMD·마벨 등) 상승을 강조. 하이일드 스프레드 확대와 Fed 추가 인상 등 리스크도 언급하나 낙관적 결론. 본인 강좌·구독 서비스 홍보 비중이 큼.
다듬은 글
So, the S&P 500 is about to reach all-time highs, but the vast majority of stocks are not at their peaks. Actually, look here: The equal-weighted S&P 500 is not the same as the regular S&P 500. Instead, it distributes the shares evenly within those 500 companies, effectively dividing 100% of the pie equally among them.
This is different from how it is done now, when a company like Nvidia has a much larger share. So the technology sector is skewing the regular S&P 500 index in the upward direction. But look at this. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is headed for its seventh consecutive weekly decline. This is an erosion of market breadth, and it's the worst we've seen since 2022 .
Many people remember 2022 and say it was a hellish time. And I mean, look what we have on the fear and greed index. You have stock price breadth, which is the number of stocks that are rising compared to those that are falling, right? They are now at a record low. It is believed that you are in a state of extreme fear.
Added to this is the strength of the stock price. These are new record highs versus lows. There is massive negativity and extreme fear here. So, what's going on? Is this a very bad bear market signal? I mean, think about it. The last two times we had such series, one of them was in 2022. The other was in 2002.
And both of them are very important signals for the market. But why? Again , how can the S&P 500 rise to all-time highs in this economy and still appear to be thriving, judging by the S&P 500 ? Look at this. We literally just hit all-time highs. Just this morning. The Nasdaq 100 rose about 80 basis points.
It was a real rocket. We were sending alerts, buying dips on QQQ, you know, basically where QQQs were: at 700, 712, 708, 725 , 735. We were buying like crazy below that level around 735. Now the Nasdaq 100 is at 762. We keep moving while the RSP is sending us a signal that we haven't seen since 2022.
And what happened before that? 2022. So what does this signal potentially mean? Well, in my opinion, this is a very positive signal. This sounds crazy because when we think of 2022, we think of a bad year. When we think of 2002, we think of the dot-com bubble. Well, wait a minute . The market actually bottomed out in 2002.
And the market actually bottomed out in 2022. This is strange. Think about it. The market sell-off during the dot-com bubble began around March to May 2000 . And around March, uh, actually closer to January 2022. And you had a good 9–10 months of sales in both of those years. In both of these years, RSP equal weight, which is an ETF that tracks equal weight.
In both of these years, you had a kind of long period of decline. You can see it right here . You dropped to about the 200- day moving average, bounced off it, and stayed low. There was no other short bounce in 2023. And if you go all the way back, you can't, because RSP hadn't been released yet. But in any case, in 2022 you would have a similar drawdown.
This is the last time we had a big drawdown at even weight. At that time, RSP had not yet been launched, but equal weight still existed. So, why is this happening? And what does this signal to us today? Well, here's the thing. The 10-year bond yield jumped to 534 just a few trading days ago. That's the highest level we've seen since 2002, which is also really bad.
Why is this happening? Well, that's because we have a culmination of shocks happening at the same time. Look at these shocks . You have an oil shock, you have a rate/ yield shock. I think they are actually the same thing . And you have this economic shock that's happening right now. You could actually call it a corporate profitability shock right here.
So, the rate shock is generally mortgages, credit cards, car loans. The oil shock is what we pay at the gas stations: diesel prices, gasoline, uh, you know, jet fuel prices. A corporate profitability shock is what you see for companies that need to borrow to support the development of artificial intelligence.
Shocking profitability there. We clearly see a widening of spreads, especially in junk bond territory. Although it's not as bad as what we've seen in previous years. So, it's still too early to say that a real corporate profitability shock is happening. We're just seeing rates rise there. And of course, you have this economic shock, which is actually a blessing.
Not just the costs of agent-based AI, which I think is only just starting to rise, but also the costs of the AI infrastructure boom, which is of course one of the first red flags. If these expenses stop, it's the end. That doesn't mean it's good. So, this signal may actually indicate that we are close to bottoming out, as has historically happened before.
Which is strange, because how can we be at the bottom when we are at the top? And this is where, in my opinion, what is happening is what we are now taking into account and have already taken into account, as we said 3 weeks ago on this channel. 3 weeks ago I recorded a video where I said this is the peak of fear.
The NASDAQ 100 was at 700 per share through QQQ. It is now at 780. We have already grown by over 10%. It was the peak of fear. What did we take into account? We considered a price of $109 per barrel of oil. We have factored in almost five interest rate increases. We took into account a protracted war that would last forever, and we took into account the war in Ukraine that would last forever.
Russia-Ukraine. And we see that all this risk-taking has actually masked what is happening to the real economy. Look at this. The New York State Comptroller's Office found in a new report that Wall Street firms earned $45.9 billion this year , or 51.3% more than last year. In other words, Wall Street firms are getting rich off underwriting this AI boom through debt issuance, IPOs, or otherwise.
The commissions that firms receive from underwriting increased by 68% in the first half of the year. This is despite a growth in debt issuance of only 11%. So commissions skyrocket. But part of the reason commissions are skyrocketing is that these companies are making so much more money, especially the biggest players in AI.
I mean, look at this. The world's top 100 tech billionaires have added $845 billion this year as of September. This is madness. 845 trillion. Let me make sure I said it right. The world's 100 tech billionaires added 800...No. I said it right. Billions. Okay, not trillions. That would be madness. The entire US economy is about $25 trillion in GDP, right?
It grows to about 26, 27. So billions. The world's 100 richest tech billionaires added $845 billion . So, almost a trillion dollars of wealth for just 100 people. Can you imagine that? Imagine you're in a room with 100 people, and each of them has become $1 trillion richer. Now up to $4.6 trillion in total .
Elon alone accounted for about 30–40% of that. It's just incredibly crazy. The concentration of wealth that is happening. But this is fueled by artificial intelligence. And that's why I say we're probably in a state of peak fear, because I have a hard time imagining how all these problems can continue.
Either something breaks, or we normalize the situation by finding another safety valve. Let me show you a few options for how this works. First, it is the projected yield curve for the Fed to raise rates. So, essentially, the federal funds rate. It is expected that we will see another 3.3 rate hikes between now and next September.
This gives a total of 4.3 rate increases. Previously, a week ago, before the employment report, we had expected a 4.8 increase. A total of 4.8 increases. We can already see that the likelihood of further rate hikes is decreasing. This already takes some of the pressure off the betting market. OK. So, this is a betting market.
Corporate bond yields are rising because the entire yield curve is rising. But wait. What is really happening to yields today, with oil back below $100, which has become another pressure relief valve. Brent oil is now at $98 . And, oh my, what a surprise. The 10-year bond is below Kevin's forecast of 5.27% to be around the peak.
Yes, they went up to 5.32% and so on during the day, but I think we are very close to peak returns. We haven't passed that stage yet, but on this channel I try to have the courage to make predictions that are useful in the future. You know, I don't want to make a video like, "This is where I was right." Or: " That's where I was wrong, but then I was right again." And everything is so different.
The goal is how can we use this as useful information in the future? In my opinion, these shocks are already factored into the prices. Oil shock, rate shock, corporate profitability shock, economic shock from this boom. In terms of the inflation it creates. All these things are already embedded in the market .
So what happens if you say now , and that's how we reach all-time highs, right? This is how we get all- time highs. So what happens when this subsides? So what happens when this subsides? OK? So, the oil shock is passing, right? What will happen when the interest rate shock passes? And then the shock of corporate profitability will pass, right?
Oil prices are falling, regardless of whether a deal is made with Iran or you simply redirect oil supplies. When this shock passes, the interest rate shock passes too. When the rate shock passes , the corporate profitability shock passes. What remains? There remains an economic shock, which was positive.
Unlike all the others—this one was bad, this one was bad. Only the good remains. And that's how you get new all-time mega highs. That's how you get a euphoric rally. This is how you get a euphoric rally. Here's why I'm optimistic: a rally from the peak of fear three weeks ago to the end of the year.
Now, we talked about this very clearly on the channel, but we also discussed specific call options. For example, there was one that we talked about on Friday this ...this is the schedule...this is what we determined on Friday. We actually had a schedule from Friday. This is the updated schedule from this morning .
But we identified this particular trade on Friday, it was at 1656, so we have n't had a chance to see a rebound yet. But we saw this at the level of historical volatility over the last 6 months, and we thought: this is a very good strategy for a call option. And this is exactly what we do , it was Friday.
Today, this option on this ticker is up about 40%. We talked about this some more . I'm going to calculate exactly how much he's grown right now. But we discussed this more this morning on the live broadcast for course participants. So you can view it there if you want. But we were considering the December option.
I won't name the ticker because I can't reveal all the insider information. I think we're already very generous. If you want to join us, come to meet reinvest, or excuse me, go to reinvest1.com or meetkevin.com and join the reinvest membership. So, it was 179-178...no, 1780. And we're at the midpoint now .
1780. Yes, okay. So, now it has grown by about 30-35%. OK. So, now, not quite 40, but still pretty good by this option. Good. So what does this mean in the future? Well, first of all, we have to talk about the overall uptrend, because RSP, in my opinion, is equilibrium—it's just a signal of the bottom of 2002 and 2022.
And I just explained how this top can actually look like a bottom . Now we need to talk about why equal-weight companies are suffering, especially utilities, which should be fueling the whole AI boom, right? Shouldn't this be dominant now, but it isn't. Many small- cap companies are also performing poorly.
We'll touch on that in a moment. I just want to give you a quick reminder: go to mekevin.com. Check out our Reinvest 1 superintelligence platform . This platform: if you join once, you will get lifetime access to Reinvest 1 inclusions, that is, to everything on the site, to everything we offer. Alpha membership, trading alerts, so you get this Alpha report before the market opens every day, trading alerts, our terminal that's coming out at the end of the year.
This will be a research and stock terminal. It will be truly incredible what we release with this. A lot of work goes into this, and by the end of next year we will be hiring significantly more people than we do now to make the product better and better every day. Including our Homes platform, which is also included there.
All nine courses, all the live streams for participants, the " Agent AI for Consumers" module, it will be released in the first quarter, and in the second quarter we will have the Reinvest business plan , which will also include "Agent AI in Business," which is just incredible. So check it out. In my opinion, you should really join by 2027 because then we will charge an annual fee.
But if you make it to that point , you don't pay anything . You pay once, and that's it. So I see it as, I joked this morning, it's like Social Security, where new people will pay for data for those who have been in the system for a long time. Well, by the way, you could be part of this social security group, you know?
Yes. So, you just, you just have to join us. OK. So let's now focus on this RSP issue. So , here's the thing. The Russell 2000, i.e. small- cap companies, fell about 8.5% from its record on August 14. They are lagging the S&P 500, and over a third of the Russell 2000 members can't cover the interest they owe, the same interest they pay out of their operating income.
So many smaller companies found themselves in trouble. Utilities also found themselves in trouble. So companies are suffering from interest, utilities are suffering from interest, and utilities, which are down about 13% in just the last 30 days, are suffering in part because the 10- year Treasury yield is so high.
People buy utility companies because they offer dividends . But why take a risk with a utility company whose pricing power is limited by monopoly and oligopoly regulation? Why take a risk for a small dividend when you can get a risk-free rate of 5.29%, right? In addition, the KBW bank index has fallen by more than 12% since mid-August.
Why ? Well, partly because people think that Meta Muse will help people not only cancel subscriptions to smaller companies that are drowning under the weight of higher interest rates, but also potentially cause depositors to flee, because Meta Muse can look at your Rocket Money or whatever you use, look at your bank accounts and say, "Hey, you should be making more money here." "Do you want me to do it for you?" Capital One is down 20% this year, Wells Fargo is down 14%.
That's a lot. And that's because households have about $5.4 trillion in checking accounts, not in the markets. So, there's this reshuffle happening beneath the surface of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. And this reshuffle could be painful because of the downsizing. But we don't see it yet. That's why the market isn't worried, and the market overall continues to rise because there are no red flags yet.
This morning we received the weekly data from ADP. We have data for two working weeks. Both figures exceeded 22 and 23 thousand per week, which is fantastic for an economic boom. But what you're actually noticing is that some of the biggest AI brands are the ones who are benefiting from this boom. We bought a breakout on Broadcom just below 355.
It just soared to 378. For Nvidia, we were predicting a breakout from the 227 level. It is now breaking out. We also expected a breakthrough in cybersecurity. This is all related to artificial intelligence. He is actively breaking through . I mean, you can look at a company like CrowdStrike. This is a crazy breakthrough.
A breakout was predicted at 266 for Marvell. And if you look here, we literally went line by line today. By the way, you could hear and see about this in our Alpha report, which we release every morning. But from 266 to 294, just look. This is great. So the problem is that these are your AI beneficiaries.
Cybersecurity: Jamie Dimon suggests that cybersecurity concerns are now 10 times greater than before, due to a " mythological moment" from Claude, i.e. from Anthropic. So the AI players win. But the rest are still having a harder time catching up. Because the comparison to 2022 and 2000 suggests that we are indeed in the process of bottoming out for the rest of the S&P 500.
Now I want you to think about what happens when software goes up, yields go down, corporate earnings go down, oil prices go down, and all these other lagging assets start to go up? After all, you don't reach all-time highs just because Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft are growing, even though, you know, these are other companies that we've been following.
We're talking about the Nvidia breakthrough, or, sorry, the AMD breakthrough. I think we predicted it at 466. Right now, this thing is worth around $650. Microsoft, I still think, is going to 566, somewhere around 562 dollars. It is on track to do so after breaking the 500 level. It has been rising almost every day for the past week.
And there is still potential in these stocks. But imagine what happens when this rally expands and you don't have peak fear on the RSP, the equally weighted index. Or there will be no peak fear in market breadth, and that breadth will start to widen again as oil and rates fall. Then you will get a boost across the entire stock market.
And if this is added to the profits from artificial intelligence, which are already fueling the upper segment and pushing us to all-time highs, then this is how all-time highs really stop being just highs. They become something like a bottom. It's strange, the strangest thing to say is that right now, at historic highs fueled by the biggest companies, we could actually be at a broader bottom, similar to 2022, 2020, or 2002.
And we will get a rally against this backdrop. Dude, Qs are going to break the 800 mark this year. Now, does this mean there are no “red flags”? Of course, there are definitely red flags. Boom underwriters are a big red flag. This is your Anthropic and Open AI. What will happen to them? Oil, we really need the price of oil to steadily decline.
It's good that the oil is flowing again, so to speak. This is great. We have been talking about this for a long time , which, in fact, even reduces the need for a deal with Iran. But all of this generally fuels enthusiasm and is an environment of uplift. Could this also lift companies like Oracle and some software assets?
I think so. I think Palantir will cross the 200 mark. I think, you know, even some of the software companies that were left behind during this last software rush could also start to grow as the entire economy benefits from lower returns. So I'm pretty excited about this. Now, another thing to pay attention to is the talk of the Fed raising rates, which we already touched on.
But if we get another weaker jobs report, like 29,000 instead of the expected 84,000, and the previous two months were down 60K, then the Fed is done for. You will get something like "once and done." And any hint that we'll only do it once means we'll now have to play back another three and a half declines.
This means that the market will grow even more. Now let's look back for a moment to what was happening back in the 2002 era. If we go back there, the S&P 500 index fell by about 47% from March 2000 to October 4, 2002. So, again, as I mentioned at the beginning of the segment, 2002 was the year of bottoming out.
And it was only after the Federal Reserve really rescued the market that you were able to break away from the bottom around March 2003. So between October 2002 and March 2003, you were pretty stable. And what happened in 2003 is that the Fed stepped in and saved the markets. In '22, we obviously got a cycle of Fed rate hikes.
And we saw the S&P 500 fall 18.7%, and we stopped in October. Look at this. Both have hit rock bottom. 2002 hit bottom in October. And 2022 hit bottom in October. Is it possible that RSP just bottomed out on Friday? What number was it on Friday? Was it Friday the 1st? Friday could have been the 1st.
This is Wait. Today is already Oh, wait. No. Friday was the 2nd. Wow . Ha. Friday was the 2nd . Yes. This is quite possible. And it really matches. So, it's quite strange to think about it. So this idea that RSP weakness or balanced index weakness only happens in a bear market, that if we looked back and said, "Well, it was a bear market for everything but the richest tech stocks, and then when everyone else joins in, suddenly the path to growth opens up." I don't know.
This is my take on the bullish scenario. Maybe, maybe, I'm wrong about this. But remember, I have predicted several times on Qs that we will break all-time highs. We have done this repeatedly in the Alpha report. Join us at reinvest1.com. We hit hit hit hit hit . And so I'm really excited about it, and I think it's going to continue to do so .
Now I am not blind to the risks that are in the market, two canaries. But the canaries are happy and singing now. So, um, I'm less worried. Now, I also want to be clear that around the time of Oracle's 9/11 reporting, I rejected the data center "bag" thesis , and that's when I stated that during that peak of fear, data centers had found their bottom and were effectively launching the hardware rally 2.0.
It was at the very beginning, like the 2nd week of, well, September 11th. So, about the second week of September. And if you look back at the data center sector, where are we now relative to that time. So, let's come back here. September 11th was right here on SpaceX, 147, right up from there. We played on this.
Oracle is still hanging around where it was on September 11th. September 11—that was this red day. That's when the reports came out , somewhere around here when the reports came out . So, this was, in my opinion, the bottom line for Oracle. We're still at the bottom , so we haven't moved on from that.
But it was a signal for other players as well . For example, look at Nebius. Nebius right here, it was a little data center hole that it was in , right under the 216 line. We're at 252 right now. And I think it's going to jump up to 339 soon. Nebius has a huge potential to break out of this, well, kind of equilateral convergence.
And I think he'll just break through it. So I'm really excited about it. I'm a little more worried about Coreweave because they have a lot of debt, but they could also find their bottom right now, right in the September 11-14 zone. And so I abandoned my thesis about the " sad owners" of data centers, although, to be fair, these guys suffered for about the first two weeks.
It was a straight path down, I mean , look at the Coreweave chart, it's just a drop. I think that's behind us . So think about it. Let's try to put it all together, because there is a lot of information. Peak yields , peak corporate profits, peak oil prices, peak Fed rate hike expectations, bottom in the data center hardware market.
Okay. All of this together means that there is huge growth potential ahead. Of course, is it possible that some plague will kill us all, or Iran will get a nuclear weapon, and everything will go awry ? I don't know, it's unlikely. But, apparently, there is always a tiny possibility. However, for the sake of complete transparency, this is my perspective on what is happening in the economy, and why this all-time high is not really a high, and this rally is just beginning.
This morning, people asked me : " Kevin, should we sell?" And I think the answer to that should be pretty obvious. So, if you want to watch, join us. Join us at Reinvest One. You will receive a complete archive of all live broadcasts for course participants, starting, I think, in 2018, when I launched them.
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