Marc Faber On Stocks, Bonds, Gold And More | Trading Nation | CNBC

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2016년 11월 30일 CNBC 트레이딩 네이션 인터뷰. 결론: 미국 주식은 지수만큼 강하지 않아 과매수 시장을 피하고 과매도된 자산에 분산투자해야 한다는 입장. 미국 시장은 2014년 12월 이후 S&P 성장의 90%를 페이스북·아마존·넷플릭스·구글이 견인했고 일반 주식은 부진했다고 주장. 신흥국 주식은 2011년 이후 매도세였으나 2016년 들어 러시아 +34%, 브라질 +64%, 카자흐스탄 +58% 등으로 미국을 상회. 2017년 신흥국 비중 확대 권고. 유럽 비중도 확대 권고. 미국 달러는 심하게 과매수·고평가되어 있어 지금은 투자하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 싱가포르 주식이 미국 대비 저평가라고 봄. 금광株는 최근 조정 후에도 매력적이라고 평가. 금은 2016년 달러 기준 11%, 파운드 32%, 유로 14% 상승해 세계 최강 통화라고 주장. 미국 경제에 대해서는 이전보다 덜 비관적이라면서도 트럼프가 케인즈주의적 개입과 대규모 화폐 발행을 할 것이라 우려. 최근 12개월간 국가부채가 1.6조 달러 증가했다고 지적하며 성장의 질이 낮다고 평가. 일반 투자자에게 권하는 것: 장기국채(TLT ETF)는 며칠 내 3~4% 상승 가능성, 금과 백금은 저평가, 유로 매수, 미국 대신 일본 비중 확대, 신흥국 매수. 인도 화폐 회수 이슈와 루마니아 주식도 언급했으나 별도 방향 제시는 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Welcome to Trading Nation. We're pleased to welcome today the editor of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom report, Mark Faber, who is with us from a certain point in the world. Mark, it's always nice to hear your opinion. You know, our viewers and listeners know you more as the " apocalypse man," but are you buying stocks during the so-called " Trump rally"?

02. Listen , there's a lot of liquidity in the world , and we've seen a sell-off in bonds, and more recently, in precious metals . Therefore, I believe we should look at markets, sectors, and stocks that are oversold and avoid those that are overbought. The fact is that the US market is not as strong as the indices seem, because, as CNBC's Jeff Mack pointed out the other day , 90% of the S&P's growth since December 2014 has been provided by Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, while common stocks have not performed so well.

03. Since 2011, there has been an active sell-off in emerging market stocks. This year, most emerging markets have actually outperformed the US. Russia grew by 34 %, Brazil by 64%, Kazakhstan by 58%, Thailand by 18%, Indonesia by 14%, Vietnam by 15%. And I think in 2017 I would recommend increasing the share of emerging markets in the portfolio.

04. I would also increase the European share, partly because I think the optimism about the US dollar is excessive. I think the US dollar is horribly overbought and overvalued. Therefore, I would not invest in the US dollar right now . Of course. OK. You mentioned...let's move on to specific ideas. You named markets that performed better than the US, and this has been taken into account.

05. Are you buying stocks in these markets, Mark, or have they completely exhausted their growth potential? Not really, because some of these markets have performed very poorly in the past . If you look at Brazil and Russia, they have been performing terribly since 2011 and have just bounced off the lows.

06. So I think the potential is still there, but right now I would look at Singapore stocks. I believe Singapore stocks are undervalued compared to the US. And, as I said last year, exactly a year ago, when Barrick was worth about $6 and Newmont Mining was about $17. I believe that gold mining stocks are still attractive after the recent correction.

07. Don't forget that there has been a lot of negative talk about gold lately . But the fact is that if you consider gold as a currency, it is the strongest currency in the world this year. This is an increase of 11% in dollars, 32% in British pounds and 14% in euros. So I don't think things were that bad even after the recent correction .

08. Is it fair to say that you are a little less pessimistic about the US than before? Less pessimistic, not optimistic, but less pessimistic, actually. I think that , unfortunately, I would also vote for Mr. Trump if I were an American. But unfortunately, I think he's a Keynesian, an interventionist, and that he's going to print money.

09. He will have to print money on a massive scale. The US economy is actually not doing very well. Let's say, assuming nominal GDP growth was around 5%, in other words, 2% inflation and 3% real growth this year or next , then over the past 12 months, the national debt alone has increased by $1.6 trillion .

10. So what is the quality of this growth? So you... are of no quality? Yes, I hear you. What should we do then? Mark, without going into complicated schemes, let's assume that someone watching this is not going to buy Romanian stocks or even Brazilian EWZ. But if you were to ask the average investor , what would they do today?

11. I would buy Treasury bonds. I think they will recover. There is a stock called TLT—it's an ETF for long-term treasury bonds. I think it could grow by 3-4 % in just a few days. I would buy gold and platinum. They are underrated. And I would buy euros. And I would increase Japan's share, literally instead of the US.

12. And I would buy emerging markets. Good. Japan, gold, treasuries and emerging markets. To Mark Faber, these are real ideas for investment, and we are certainly grateful for that. We won't be doing a separate segment on Romanian stocks, although we might do it with you, Mark. That's why we love you. We can talk about anything.

13. Thank you. Let's talk about Indian stocks sometime. Yes. And about how and why they literally run out of money. There is no large denomination currency there because it was withdrawn. That will be another topic for conversation , Mark, and we look forward to it. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you and thank you for watching Trading Nation.

14. Watch the live version on CNBC's Power Lunch program . See you there too. Have a nice day. Hello, thank you for visiting the CNBC YouTube channel. Don't forget to subscribe to stay up to date with the main events of the day. news from CNBC. Thank you for watching.