저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 채권 자경단(Bond Vigilantes)이 다시 돌아왔으며, 물가 상승 가능성이 디플레이션보다 커졌고 분산투자가 여전히 합리적이다. 채권 자경단 개념: 통화·재정정책이 지나치게 인플레이션적이라고 판단하면 채권 수익률(금리)이 올라 항의하며, 이는 경기를 둔화시키고 물가를 잡는 역할을 한다. 1980년대에 이런 금리 급등이 여러 차례 있었다. 중앙은행 영향: 2008년 이후 양적완화로 중앙은행이 채권시장을 장악해 자경단이 한동안 묻혀 있었으나, 최근 다시 살아나는 것처럼 보인다. 인플레이션 전망: 대선 이후 확장적 재정, 무역보호주의, 이민 축소 등으로 물가가 오를 것이라는 인식이 퍼졌다. 경제는 이미 양호하며 임금 상승이 나타나 완전고용 신호가 보이고, 이것이 채권시장의 우려 요인이다. 디플레이션이나 저물가보다는 물가 상승 쪽 가능성이 높다고 본다. 주식시장 반응: 선거 후 채권 수익률이 오르면서 주식도 상승했으나, 공익·필수소비재·통신 등 금리민감주는 부진했다. 성장주·경기민감주·산업재·헬스케어·은행(규제 완화 기대)이 강세였고, 저PER 종목이 두드러지게 올랐다. 금리 민감주 부진: 금리 상승 환경에서 배당형·채권대체 성격의 섹터는 약세를 보였다. 자산배분 조언: 주식과 채권 중 하나만 고르기보다는 분산 포트폴리오가 여전히 최선이라고 답했다. 세금 관련: 면세 채권 투자자는 세율 인하 시 불리해질 수 있으며, 힐러리 집권 시 고세율 전망이 면세채에 유리했을 것이라고 언급했다. 세율 인하가 포트폴리오 일부에 불리하다는 주제는 다음 대담으로 넘겼다. 출연자 전망 요약: 물가 상승과 금리 상승 압력 가능성, 성장·경기민감주 선호, 채권보다는 분산 유지.
다듬은 글
welcome to training nation I'm Eric chummy joined now by EDR Denny president and chief investment strategist of your Denny Research and thanks for joining us here on trading nation how you doing today just fine thank you all right so let's go right to it you coined the term bond vigilantes back in 1983 tell me it are the bond vigilantes are they back I think they are back they've been sort of buried by the central banks central bankers have clearly taken over the bond market in recent years since 2008 especially with quantitative easing by purchasing bonds but there might have been buried that maybe they're coming back in zombies you know the Living Dead zombies huh and just I know it's basic but for our viewers who might be a little bit newer yep what is a bondage Elena just explain that super basic well the basic concept is that when the bond vigilantes aren't happy with what they're seeing happening with monetary policy fiscal policies if they think they're too inflationary then you'll see banyoles rising in protest in anticipation that these policies will lead to higher inflation and won't be good for fixed income investors and that backup in bond yields then in turn can very well have the desired effect by the other part of the bond vigilantes namely slowing the economy down and bringing inflation down during the 1980s we had several episodes were the basic trend of the yield was down but occasionally we'd have these pretty significant back up in bond yields that slowed the economy down and brought inflation back when you look forward and your forecast relative to what the Fed is saying relative to everyone else do you feel like there's more inflation ahead than people are thinking about or maybe actually more even come through that high well it seems as though overnight with the election results there was kind of a widespread perception that with the new administration we'll have for sure more fiscal stimulus we might have trade protectionism we might have fewer workers if immigration is a cutback and all these things are inflationary so the reality is the economy is actually doing quite well right now what wage inflation has actually started to pick up suggesting that we are at full employment and so those wage numbers are already starting to be a concern for the bond vigilantes even before we had a sort of a regime change if you will that might in fact spark more inflation so I I would think what's really changed is very unlikely we're going to be facing deflation or still lower inflation and more likely we'll be looking at inflation moving higher and you mentioned the election you mentioned regime change what about the stock market obviously we've seen a big rally since the election maybe PA would believe it in this Trump thing do you buy this rally do you see the valuation where the rest of the market sees it well you know these markets are all interrelated and the stock market basically came up with the same conclusion as the bond market bond yields went up following the election results and within the stock market the overall market went up but if you looked like a closer look you'd see that utilities and consumer staples telecom services the interest rate-sensitive stocks performed very poorly the big move was in growth and cyclical stocks industrials health care banks that might be able to look forward to less regulation so there's a lot of kind of dough see doing going on in the in the stock market where stocks that had relatively poor performance and low p/e suddenly are performing very well and the ones that were interest rate related are doing very poorly so then just real quick if somebody had to just pick one side of bonds versus stocks to actually put their money in do you feel like it's a neck wheeze or are they actually better off staying with bonds well I I think a diversified portfolio I'm sorry I can't give you a that's too easy right diversify yeah I don't think it's I wish it was that easy these days but it's that I think a diversified stock portfolio and a bond portfolios still makes sense I think tax-exempt investors are confronted with a problem that they might have a lower tax rate so they already own somebody's tax-exempt securities they might get penalized for the lower tax rate I mean Hillary would have been great for tax exempt bonds because she was talking about higher tax rates so I would say diversify as as usually is the best case and giving advice I think we started our next conversation for next time which is the fact that lower taxes is bad for parts of your portfolio so and Yardeni of course as always thanks for joining us here from your denny research coming on our trading nation hey there thanks for checking out CNBC on YouTube be sure to subscribe to stay up-to-date on all of the day's biggest stories
Comments 0