저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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경제는 견조하고 인플레는 완만히 둔화 중이라 Fed가 금리를 인하해도 무방하다는 주장. 다만 금·비트코인·주식 등 자산 인플레와 좁은 하이일드 스프레드를 우려하며, 1996년式 과열(메ltup 후 메ltdown 위험) 비유를 든다. 연말 S&P500 5400 목표를 유지하고 6000~6500까지 상향 가능성을 언급, 현 시점은 강세장으로 투자 유지를 권고. 중국 디플레가 상품 인플레를 억제한다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg audio Studios podcasts radio news Equity markets coming off the last week of the year the best week of the year investors looking ahead to Friday when fed share JP speaks and we get the core PC deflator Ed yardeni of yardeni research writing this in the financial times at this Nevada level all is right with the US economy because it is growing while inflation remains moderate if the economy is doing well with the current level of interest rates why love of them Ed yardeni I'm pleased to say join us now for more and fantastic piece in the Ft enjoyed reading over it when it came out a little bit earlier this morning you say why mess with success can I get your base case do you think they will mess with success well based on what I heard coming uh in the press the press conference that J pal had it seems as though uh he at least U is uh continuing to uh tell us all that they are probably are going to lower interest rates um and uh that kind of again raises the question exactly why is that I mean we had a hot CPI and PPI u in a few days before his press conference and yet not withstanding that he expressed confidence that all all is well uh and he's right about the economy the econom is doing absolutely fine uh I I think there's some fed officials who believe in the concept of real interest rates that if uh inflation continues to come down then real rate real rates will be restrictive and that might cause a recession so I I'm concluding that the fed put might actually be back so if they do go forward and mess with success given that you believe the fed put is back does it really matter is it equities up and up and up and away no it's it's it's fine for the for the economy I think inflation is still going to moderate though I think they're taking a chance here there's with oil prices going up the way they have uh that's that's an area that can always spill over to the rest of the economy so I I don't think they want to get get everybody thinking about the possibility of inflation coming back but yeah I think this is starting to possibly be reminiscent of the 199s and if you ask me where we are in the 1990s I think we're at December 5th 1996 where Allen Greenspan asked how do we know if it's irrational exuberance and I'm concerned that the market uh we go up too fast uh I mean it's it's great on the way up uh M melt ups are wonderful but uh by definition they can lead to meltdowns and so that's where my concern is look I I've been forecasting 5400 by year end we can get there by the end of the week the way things are going well but just to sort of sit a little bit Ed on what you were talking about with respect to Commodities or oil prices we've seen a number of strategists Goldman Sachs coming out and seeing the potential for a 15% gain in raw materials over the duration of this year in part because the FED is going to allow growth to continue Mike Wilson over at Morgan Stanley also talking up the liking likelihood that a commodity oriented cyclical boom really gets ignited at what point does this become a problem for the broader market with the idea of inflation coming back well I'm not that worried about the inflation story because I think certainly on the good side China is going to continue to export deflation uh we continue to see that their producer price index is negative we continue to see that import prices for the US coming in from China uh those are negative on a year-over-year basis uh China's in a pretty serious recession uh they're really in a property depression kind of similar to what happened in Japan a while ago and in the United States and it takes years to offset or to come out of that kind of deflationary experience so I'm not particularly worried about about the price inflation I'm more concerned about asset inflation you know it's not just the stock market that's on a tear it's also gold it's Bitcoin uh the spread between high yield uh corporate bonds and the treasuries is is extremely narrow so that's where the fed's running a risk here I I think there should be three mandates if they're going to have a mandate to keep inflation down price inflation down keep unemployment rate down they also have to be concerned about financial stability Ed when you look at the take from a M aleran and he told us on Friday it might not be this pinpoint when it comes to inflation maybe the FED is now targeting a range and he said last week was a really good um moment where potentially you saw that shift do you agree do you think the FED is now looking at a range instead of 2% well it seems more like the that based on what pal said that their target is still 2% they're not putting that in in a range is just pile kept saying over and over again that they're shooting for 2% over time 2% over time he said it several times uh and that implies that U they're willing to lower rates before they actually get to 2% whereas the message before seemed to be that uh they're not going to lower rates until they're actually at 2% or so close to it and so comfortable that it's going to stay there uh that uh they can go ahead and ease so I think the message right now is uh pretty pretty ambiguous quite honestly it does kind of make me wonder you know what do they know that I don't know uh what What's the rush to lower rates the answer to that Ed is maybe nothing as you know because they're often surprised by many things anded I just want to know given everything you've said in the last five minutes or so what are you advocating for in equity markets what are you advocating for now from here to your end well I'm still going to use 5400 I mean obviously we were only you know what 2 3% away from that uh but I'm uh I think it's still a bull market I think uh by and next year we'll be looking at 6,000 maybe 6,500 by the the year after that so I think we're still in a bull market and I I think you stay invested and if we get a melt up uh well we'll we'll have to discuss whether it's time to take some profits before a meltdown but that's that's a risk scenario right now it's not the most likely scenario so where does the financial stability Point come into play How concerned are you about that well I I think uh it's it it is kind of like the 1990s in that regard but it's it's not 1999 it's more like 1996 uh so we're we may be early on in the financial instability issue here but things move pretty quickly these days and everybody knows the history of the stock market they know knows what happened in the 1990s and uh If the Fed really uh you know gives us a a rate cut before we're expecting it uh I think you'll see the market moving a lot higher how much are you concerned about bonds waking up to the idea of something of a range of the idea of sticky your inflation right well I think the Bond Market uh is uh happy to see the inflation coming down uh and I think uh the bond market struggling the way all of us are with the fed's message what do they really want to do here uh you know the the fomc statement made it made it sound like uh we're going to wait until we we we have the data that gives us confidence that inflation's coming down and and pal modified that statement by saying that you know things probably AR going to work out in that direction and this just sounds like extend the cycle which raises a question about the cycle that I'd like your input on hear a lot of people come on this program and say we're late cycle I think Lisa has asked the question a few times just how late are we actually Ed given the conversation we're having well I think uh We've we've discovered over the past couple of years that history doesn't always repeat itself but it does rhyme and uh you know we we are I think somewhere in the middle of the cycle I don't think we're we're we're late I think the economy is still showing uh plenty of signs of inflation's coming down but you know you have to put everything in a global context it's not just uh this the same old us business cycle it's you have to put it in the context of what's going on in China what's going on in Europe what's going on in the geopolitics Ed Denny if you Denny research Ed thank you sir giving us lots to think about
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