저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 미국 국가부채 규모보다 재정적자와 인플레이션을 더 우려한다고 말함. 달러의 준비통화 지위에 대체재가 없어 국채 수요는 당분간 유지될 것으로 봄. 연준 대차대조표 확대는 문제의 핵심이 아니며, 현금 보유 대신 좋은 사업 보유가 낫다고 강조. 달러는 장기적으로 가치가 떨어질 것이라는 전제 하에 현금은 나쁜 투자라고 언급. 2008년 금융위기 대응도 회고.
다듬은 글
Randy Jeffs from Irvine, California. The March 25th, 2024 Wall Street Journal reported that the Treasury market is about sixfold larger than before the 2008-2009 crisis. Do you think that at some point in time the world market will no longer be able to absorb all of the US debt being offered? Well, I would say the the answer, of course, I don't know, but the my best speculation uh is that US debt will be acceptable, but uh for a very long time because there's not much alternative but it won't be the quantity and that it it uh you know, any any you know, the national debt was nothing to speak of like, you know, for a long, long time and then uh it won't be the quantity.
It'll It'll be whether in any way uh inflation would get let loose in a way that that really threatened the whole world economic situation and there really isn't any alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency and you get a lot of people will give you a lot of speeches on that, but that that really is the answer that and uh and Paul Volcker worried about that back in 19, you know, well, before 1980, but he had threats on his life and I happened to have a little contact with him at that time and uh he was an amazing, amazing fellow that uh that in effect decided that he had to act or no billionaire.
The financial system would fall apart in some way that he couldn't predict and and and he did it and he said you know, people threatening his life and do all kinds of things and but he was the man for that crisis. Uh but it it wasn't the quantity of US debt that was being offered that threatened the system then it was it was the fact that that inflation and the future value of the dollar, you know, the cash is trash type thinking that turn that you know, that that was setting up something that could really affect uh future of the world in terms of its economic system and Paul Volcker took it on and and uh he was good as could be.
And if you haven't read a book or two about him uh [clears throat] or [snorts] the one he last wrote, you really ought to take a look at it. Uh but uh [clears throat] it is I I don't worry about the quantity. I worry about the fiscal deficit, you know, if it it but I'm not a warrior just generally. I mean, I I think about it and uh uh but uh I don't sit and [clears throat] get up work myself into a stew about it at least, but I but I can't help thinking about it and that's uh we've got a a we've got a great attention.
It's it's interesting and I think it media enters into this and the uh focusing that focuses on the Fed and they you know, they just love it because things are always happening and economists are always saying what's going to happen with the Fed and everything else, but the the fiscal deficit is what should be focused on and uh and Jay Powell is a a a not only a great human being, but he's he's a very, very wise man.
But he doesn't control fiscal policy and every now and then he he's sends out a kind of a disguised plea for please please pay attention to this because that's where the trouble will be if if we have it. Yeah. This question comes from Lindsey Peter Schumacher in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Does the current size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet concern you?
In particular, the result of quantitative easing, uh the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet out of nothing. The net effect in assets is a form of single entry accounting creating something of value out of nothing other than a series of book entries on uh entries and wondering what Mr. Munger thinks about this as well.
Well, I don't think the Federal Reserve is the problem and I think they can't solve the fiscal problem. Uh and uh uh I don't I don't I do not worry about the Federal Reserve and uh uh I think it's fulfilling the functions for which it was established. I probably would not have been They only they have two objectives and I would not have been one probably it would have changed the inflation objective to 2% a year from from zero.
[clears throat] I I that that uh you know, I think that if you tell your people that you're shooting to depreciate your currency at 2% a year, uh that has a lot of implications, although it feels good to a lot of people. A lot of people want a little inflation. Uh but nobody wants a lot of inflation except somebody's got a lot of debts.
And uh uh uh I I do I do not worry about the Federal Reserve balance sheet. I look I I enjoy looking at it, and the numbers are big. I always like big numbers, but but uh [clears throat] uh it is not it's it's interesting. The most one one of the most interesting figures to me is currency in circulation.
I mean, it has gone They were saying cash is trash back in 2007 and 8 and all of that. Cash is going to disappear. Well, if you look at the Federal Reserve balance sheet, it's gone from 800 billion to 2.2 trillion. And most of that's in $100 bills, overwhelmingly. And if you figure it out, I think there's about 50 $100 bills per person, babies, everybody in the United States.
And uh I would really like to know where all of that is. I mean, it No nobody's hoarding eurodollars and you know, in South America or Africa or wherever. And and uh the demand for currency now, you know, it's some of it may be used to be settled drug dealers uh activities and all of that, but anybody thinks cash is trash ought to uh look at the uh look at the Federal Reserve balance sheet.
And And actually, you can look at how many $5 bills and $2 bills and ones and all that and then the action has been in what in $100 bills. I mean it is it is just astounding the way that $100 bills have spread and of course we don't know where they I don't know where they are and I don't think the Fed can know exactly but they probably make a lot better guess than I could.
But I do know what's happened and you can watch it every week and you'll watch currency in circulation probably grow a little bit and uh and believe me [clears throat] cash is not trash. Charlie? [clears throat] Well, I don't know where we're headed with all of this. It's been very extreme. I think that you you could be pretty extreme in fighting it depressions and so forth if you revert it afterwards to a period of some discipline.
But if you just I missed that. Some discipline but if you're going to just keep borrowing you're printing money and spending it. I think eventually it causes bad trouble and you can see it in Latin America. Latin America let its currency get out of control all the time and of course it lagged the United States in economic achievement greatly.
So I think we pay a price if we [clears throat] if we ever give up our old ways entirely and go into a new world where we just try and print money just make it easier to get make to get through the year. We paid a price in World War II. I mean everybody school kids and everybody else myself included I'm with we bought what were originally called war bonds and defense bonds and savings bonds and all that but but from 1940 to to 1944 or five you paid out 1875 and you got $25 back and every kid saved savings and stamps and all that but when you got all through you know you had 120% of GDP in the national debt instead of 30 or 40% and we had a lot of inflation subsequently a lot so the people that really that bought those bonds and supported the war had a portion of their purchasing power taken away from them well there there wasn't anything wrong with that particularly but when a country gets in the habit of doing that uh I don't think it's I think it's [clears throat] tough to tough to figure out where the breaking point is with society but I don't think you want to come anywhere close to it Yeah but it's also tough to have a mass of people unemployed that's the tension well that's that's why the Fed has two objectives in terms of employment and inflation and uh but they're not the ones that that created after this and so far the system has worked pretty well although like I say it's been so far the man who's jumped off a tall building it's all right till he hits the ground well but but you there could be ways we can stop now at the third floor or the sixth floor we don't know what floor it is but we know it isn't having hit the ground but the question you know politically it's very very very tempting to to vote appropriations and it's not fun to vote taxes and Russell Long headed the Senate Finance Committee.
They got a building named after him now. He said, you know, "Don't tax you, don't tax me, tax that guy behind the tree." [clears throat] Basically, that is the attitude of I mean, that it's the reality of what is useful in politics. And so far this country's managed to work very well with a lot of things that could theoretically cause a lot of problems, but it doesn't mean it doesn't guarantee us the future on it.
And and being the reserve currency lets us do a lot of things, but it it also creates a lot of consequences if we screw it up. Charlie? Well, we're beating a subject to death, but I it is a problem. I wish we had a solution. And one incredible year. One incredible year. One in a lifetime, I hope. But yes, tell me about it for you.
Well, it it was it really was an extraordinary time in this country. We came closer to a financial meltdown than than uh certainly anytime I've ever seen, and probably in certain respects even there was even more panic than the the Great Depression, cuz it came on so fast and so unexpected. And and uh and uh the whole country wanted to deleverage uh corporations, individuals.
And fortunately, we had a government that responded, and it was you know, it was it when we talked last that it it was little question in uh of whether Congress would respond like they should. They they they finally they finally did. And I I I I I felt they would in the end. I mean, in the in the end they come together for things that are this vital to the country.
But but we had the right people in in in Washington. If if if we'd had a group that had uh behaved like a deer in the headlights, uh that deer would have gotten run over. is something that goes with your philosophy today. Get out of cash and get into assets cuz we don't know what's going to happen to the dollar.
Well, cash is always a bad investment. Uh I mean, even when people said cash is king a year ago, I mean, that's crazy. I mean, cash wasn't producing anything and it was sure to go down in value over time. I mean, you always want to be sure you have enough. I mean, it's like oxygen. You want to be sure it's around, you know?
But you don't need to have you don't need to have excessive amounts of it around. And cash uh we will always have enough cash around. But anytime we have surplus cash around, I'm unhappy. I mean, I would much rather have good businesses than cash. And and we found a chance in the last year or abouts to deploy We we came in with something over 40 billion in cash and we've got about 20 billion now and we've had some earnings.
So we we put a lot of cash to work and I like that. Now, I'd much rather own a good business uh than have cash. Uh and it is a hedge against the dollar? Well, you can say all assets are a hedge against the dollar. I mean, the All you know is that the dollar is going to be worth less 10, 20, 30 years from now.
I say worth less, not worthless. Right. You got to watch that. But it will be, you know, and that's that's true of almost every currency that I can think of. The question is how much it depreciates in value. But cash Cash is not a place to uh that Now, why is that? That the dollar is going to be worth less.
Because we'll we'll we'll print more of them in relation to the amount of goods that are moving. You know, if if we If we dropped If we dropped a million dollars of cash in every household in the United States today, everybody feel very good except the people that invested in things that were denominated in dollars.
And Exactly. Yeah, there will be no tendency uh toward deflation in in in this country over time or or in virtually any country. toward inflation. Absolutely. Okay. I think it's the same
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