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버핏의 2023년 1분기 13F 보고서 분석 영상. 버핏의 포트폴리오 변화를 종목별로 점검하고 주요 시사점 4가지를 정리함. 결론: 버핏은 은행주를 전면 부정하지 않으며, 지정학적 우려로 TSMC를 청산했고 애플 비중을 크게 늘렸다는 것이 핵심. [포트폴리오 전반] 이번 13F는 자회사 Jin Re(General Reinsurance) 보유분이 Berkshire 보고서에 포함되어 일부 매수가 자본 추가로 보일 수 있음. [셰브론(CVX)] 지분 약 18.76% 매도, 포트폴리오 비중 약 6.65%. 최근 1년 -9%, 5년 시장 하회. 배당 수익률 약 3.84%, 배당성향 30%대, 35년 연속 배당 증가. [옥시덴털(OXY)] 약 1700만 주 추가 매수(약 9% 증가). 1년 -13%, 10년 -32.8%로 부진했으나 잉여현금흐름/주당 성장이 강해 장기 긍정적으로 봄. 배당은 2020년 삭감 후 회복 중. [US뱅코프(USB)] 전량 매도(약 660만 주). 2022년 Q4부터 분할 매도 지속. 연초 대비 약 -35.75%. 배당 수익률 약 6.5%, 공매도 비중 낮음. [은행주 시각] Bank of America 2.25% 추가 매수, 현재 비중 9%대. Ally Financial 2.68% 감축, BK 전량 매도. 은행 전체를 회피하지는 않는다는 해석. [TSMC(TSM)] 전량 매도. 2022 Q4 86% 감축 후 이번 분기 청산. 대만 지정학 리스크 우려를 인터뷰 발언으로 뒷받침. [애플(AAPL)] 약 2000만 주 추가 매수. 포트폴리오 비중 38.9%에서 46.4%로 확대. 최근 3개월 주가 11% 상승. [파라마운트(PARA)] 배당 80% 삭감, 실적 쇼크, 1년 -43.5%, 공매도 약 20%에도 9만 3천 주 추가 매수. 영상 진행자는 본인이라면 편입하지 않겠다고 밝힘. [시사점 4가지] 1) 은행 전면 회피는 아님(BAC 증액, USB·BK 청산 병행) 2) 지정학 우려로 TSMC 청산 3) 애플 비중 약 46%까지 확대 4) 하락 종목(파라마운트)도 매수 가능, 다만 진행자는 비동의 진행자 결론: 누구도 항상 맞을 수 없고, 투자 성공 기준의 시간축은 투자자마다 다르다.
다듬은 글
four times a year all investment managers that have over 100 million in assets under management have to file what is called a form 13f these forms disclose exactly what moves the biggest investors in the world like Ray dalio Michael burry and Charlie Munger are making in their portfolios and more importantly in my opinion it tells us what moves Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been making over the past few months so in this video I want to briefly go over every move that was made in Buffett's portfolio dig a little deeper into some of the bigger moves that he made and I also want to give you four major takeaways from this report so that being said let's jump into it now before we dig deeper into the moves that Buffett has recently made there's something we need to understand about this particular 13f that just got released and this is something Berkshire Hathaway pointed out in a news release since Berkshire Hathaway acquired General reinsurance Corporation also known as jinri in December 1998 reportable 13f Securities owned by jinry or its subsidiaries have been reported by New England Asset Management Incorporated a holy unsubsidized those filings have been referenced in berkshire's form 13fs as other included managers beginning with form 13f to be filed later today the Holdings of General will be included in berkshire's 13f filing so you need to understand that some of the companies listed right here that were technically owned by Jin re are now going to be shown on Berkshire Hathaways 13f because jinri is a company owned by Berkshire Hathaway so some of these companies what looks like Berkshire Hathaway may have added some Capital to these positions they were technically already owned by Berkshire Hathaway so it's important to point that out so now let's look at each of the moves Buffett made in his portfolio line item by line item and to analyze this I'm going to be looking at a website called dataroma.com it's a really cool website I'm not in any way affiliated with them but they provide some really great data for institutional investors we can see the activity from each position we can see the share count change and we can see the percent change to Warren Buffett's portfolio so let's go ahead and start at the top and look at the positions he added Capital to that he already owned we can see he added Capital to hpq oxy Apple Bank of America mkl Citigroup and Paramount Global these are Physicians that already existed in his portfolio that now are larger positions now he had three new buys as well you can see he added Capital One Financial cof d-e-o and v t s those are positions we might talk about here just a little bit later in the video but now let's look at some positions that he reduced in his portfolio we have Amazon Aon Ally Financial atvi Activision Blizzard we have c e c v x m c k g m now the next positions we're going to look at Warren Buffett sold out completely you can see we have BK and Bank stock we have Rh Taiwan semiconductor that's really interesting and then we have USB us ban Court the first major move that I want to talk about is selling out of Chevron Corporation stock ticker CVX now he didn't sell his entire position but he did sell a good chunk you can see right here he sold about 18.76 percent of his stake in Chevron Corporation Chevron now makes up around 6.65 percent of his entire portfolio and come over here we can see the share price returns have been lagging for quite some time year to date they're down about 10 over the past year down nine percent and over the past five years still lagging behind the market even though it is in the green up around 21 and over the past 10 years up only 25.31 now what is interesting about this position is he started adding capital in Q3 of 2020 so he at Capital around this area right here and he just reduced his position by about 20 percent now throughout the past few years he's been buying and selling at different points so it's hard to say exactly what his profit loss is on this position but this is an interesting company from a dividend perspective we can see they have a pretty decent starting dividend yield sitting at around 3.84 percent if we jump over to the dividend tab on Seeking Alpha which by the way you can get for a huge discount at my link in the description if we come down here again like I just said close to a four percent starting dividend yield nice low payout ratio of just 30.34 percent and a somewhat okay five year growth rate 5.76 it's not the highest but it is still decent dividend growth but they also have a good history of increasing their dividend payouts at 35 consecutive years if we scroll down we can see that visualize over a 10-year period pretty consistent dividend payouts and consistently increasing those dividends over time so again although there was a 19 reduction in this position this position still makes up a pretty large position in his portfolio at around seven percent another major move that Buffett made that I do want to point out was he increased his position in Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock ticker o x y by around nine percent if we jump back over to data Roma you can see he added around 17 million shares of this company in the past quarter and again this is another Energy company that has seen really lagging returns over the past decade if we look year to date down around four percent over the past year down 13 percent over the past five years down 30 percent over the past 10 years down 32.8 percent so again definitely has underperformed the market over the past decade let's look at it from a dividend perspective if we scroll down really low starting dividend yield of just 1.23 percent now the payout ratio is extremely low as well at only 6.27 so they could pay out higher dividends if they should choose to do so but if we look at the dividend history this is where things become a little more interesting we can see it does look like they cut their dividend payouts in 2020 and it's recovered a little bit since then but it's still nowhere nearly as high as it was pre-2020.
now one metric that I'd love to look at is free cash flow per share and I want to look for the growth and you can see that on the cash flow statement so if we scroll down here come a little bit lower and right here you can see the metric free cash flow per share and if we look here we can see this company's actually had extremely good free cash flow per share growth now this makes me feel a lot more confident in this company Long Term despite what we've seen from a dividend perspective and a share price appreciation perspective if they can continue to increase their free cash flow for share growth I think the share price appreciation will follow we'll probably also see some pretty nice dividend increases in the future as well another major move that I want to quickly point out is that Buffett sold out of his entire stake in U.S Bangkok stop kicker USB currently trading at 28.68 cents per share if we jump back over to dadaroma again you can see he sold 100 of his position which was around 6.6 million shares but this is actually a position he's been selling out of for a while if we scroll down and look at Q4 2022 we can see he reduced his position by about 91.4 percent and in Q3 of 2022 he actually reduced his position by 35 so this quarter he went ahead and sold out of the entire position now this was a position they added back in 2006 and they added Capital to it a couple of other times that you can see year-to-date the company has dropped in its share price by quite a bit down about 35.75 and if we look at this article it's Seeking Alpha it kind of makes it pretty clear why we can see the financial industry is deeply interconnected and it's easy for ripple effects to occur which is probably the biggest reason for the huge sell-off we've seen in USB over the past couple of months now again the good news about this dropping in share prices the company now has a starting dividend yield of 6.5 percent and something that's interesting to me as well as the short interest for this company is only sitting at 2.34 so although there has been a lot of downward pressure with a lot of Regional Bank stock it still seems like there's not a lot of people betting against this stock now let's go ahead and dig into the dividend metrics just a little bit for this company we can see again starting dividend yield of around 6.5 percent payout ratios so you can get around 50.5 percent so that is a little bit higher than I typically like to see it but it's still not dangerous now we have a five-year growth rate of around 10 percent and a dividend growth history of 12 Years let's go ahead and look at that dividend history and you can see the increases happen pretty consistent actually a lot better than a lot of other bank stocks now this wasn't the only financial position that Buffett sold out of but I'll touch on that in just a moment so we talked about some of the major moves that Buffett did make in his portfolio over the past quarter but I still want to give you four major takeaways and this is actually something that I talked about on my Twitter account just a couple of days ago so go follow me over there if you're interested in getting more investing Insight I'll go ahead and walk you through a couple of the tweets that I put out but the number one point I wanted to make is that Buffett did sell some Bank stocks but he isn't against them either Buffett sold 100 of his position in USB and BK and he also reduced his position in Ally Financial by 2.68 percent but he increased his position in Bank of America by 2.25 percent which now makes up over nine percent of his entire portfolio we can see this is actually one of the largest positions in his entire portfolio if we scroll down it's second only to Apple which makes up an astounding 46 percent of his portfolio now the second takeaway that we do want to look at is that Buffett does have concerns over the current geopolitical landscape and this led him to selling 100 of his shares in taiwan's semiconductor and we can see this is actually something he started selling off just a little while ago if we click on activity and scroll down one of the thing you'll see in Q4 of 2022 is he reduced his position in Taiwan semiconductors by 86 percent but he went ahead and sold out of the entire position in the most recent quarter and this is actually something he talked about in a recent interview so I'll go ahead and play the clip I do think that that uh they there's a danger there to some I don't have any idea there's actually a danger of seismic action I mean and and and where they're located the third major takeaway is that Warren Buffett absolutely loves Apple stock so much so that he's comfortable with it being almost 50 of his entire portfolio in last quarter's 13 F filing Apple made up 38.9 of his portfolio and in his most recent filing Apple now makes up 46.4 of his entire portfolio this is due to the fact that Buffett added over 20 million shares and apple is up over 11 in the past three months in the fourth and last takeaways actually one of the most interesting in my opinion and that is Buffett is not afraid of a falling stock in the past year stock ticker p-a-r-a Paramount Global is down 43.5 percent and it's down 28 in the last month they just had a very disappointing earnings report and they cut their dividend by 80 percent and despite all this Buffett actually increased his position in Paramount by 93 000 shares again if we jump over to Seeking Alpha and look at Paramount you can see the company's currently trading at around 15 per share look at the past year down over 46 percent look at the short interest almost 20 percent if we click on earnings we can see they had huge misses on their most recent earnings report and again like I just mentioned they just had a huge cut to their dividend so Buffett definitely sees something in this company I guess that most people aren't seeing personally I don't see any reason that I would consider adding this company my portfolio but I'm also not Warren Buffett so there you go those are some of the moves the greatest investor of all time made in his portfolio in q1 of 2023.
it's important to remember that no investor is Right 100 of the time and their timeline to consider something a successful investment may be way different than yours so that being said thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like And subscribe to the channel
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