저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 진행자는 2023년 1월 기준으로 기존 약세 입장에서 벗어나 비관론을 낮추고 조심스럽게 중립~약한 강세로 전환했으나, 새로운 저점 가능성은 배제하지 않음. [시장 입장 변화] - 1월 1일 이후 약세 입장을 완화했고, 1월 5일 패트리온 미팅에서 매수 재개를 언급했다고 함. - 아직 바닥을 확정한 것은 아니며 신저점 가능성은 열어둠. - 수익률 곡선이 역전 해소되면 시장이 랠리할 수 있다고 봄. 이 때문에 '약세보다 강세에 더 가깝다'고 설명. [거시 전망] - 제이미 다이먼과 폴 크루그먼이 경기 침체 우려를 완화하는 발언을 함. 연착륙(soft landing) 가능성이 몇 달 전보다 높아졌다고 진행자는 평가. - 매크로 분석 인용: S&P500이 실제 경기침체에 들어가면 최저점은 3200~3400 수준일 수 있음. - 금리 인상은 2023년 2월 이후 마무리 국면으로 봄. 미국 2년물 금리는 약 4.9%에서 정점을 찍었을 것으로 전망. - 중국 경기 재개방이 공급망과 시장에 긍정적이라고 언급. [부채한도] - 미국의 디폴트 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 부채한도 상향은 거의 확실시된다고 전망. - 달러 약세는 부채한도 상향 기대와 연관 가능성. [비트코인·크립토 뉴스] - 비트코인: 일봉 기술적 분석 기준 박스권 하단 지지 후 상단 목표를 보는 시각. 구체 목표가는 명시되지 않음. - 제네시스(Genesis) 파산 신청: DCG 계열의 위험이 확산되면 우려스럽지만 시장은 이미 상당 부분 반영했을 것으로 판단. 회사 채무 약 35억 달러 규모로 언급. - 바이낸스: 자금세탁 혐의 관련 이슈와 비트 비츠(BitBits) 자금 흐름 이슈가 함께 언급됨. - 그레이스케일 BTC 신탁(GBTC)은 기관 흐름의 선행지표 역할을 할 수 있다고 설명. [리스크] - 금리 인상 지속, 신용 계약(contagion) 확산, 경기침체 시 지수 추가 하락 가능성. - 진행자는 자신의 입장이 확신이 아닌 포지션 변화라고 강조하며, 시장에는 매수자와 매도자가 모두 필요하다고 언급. [출연자 전망] - 진행자 본인: 비관에서 중립~약한 강세로 전환, 신저점 가능성은 배제 못함. - 다이먼·크루그먼: 침체 우려 완화 쪽으로 입장 조정.
다듬은 글
good morning afternoon or evening ladies and gentlemen all in crypto here and welcome back guys for what is going to be your daily cryptocurrency market update in this one we're going to be quite news focused because there's lots of things taking place internally um within the crypto space um and we're also you know what we try and do in these Market updates is it is look at where the cryptocurrency market is relative to the sort of broader world of Finance around us and try and figure out where it's potentially going you know where we are in this bull or bear Market um and and what essentially um is to come before us um now I'm not calling this a bull market by any stretch of the imagination guys you know we we've adopted and it's important that I continue to reiterate my stance a non-barrassed approach really from January the 1st um after being a bit of a a bear or an aggressive bear all of last year and we actually did say that we had put some money back into the markets um on the 5th of January I did an altcoin video where I actually um showed um a patreon meeting on the 5th of January where we actually spoke about buying this was before this candle of course um and it now seems like that may have been a good idea however just because we're not bearish doesn't mean that we're calling a bottom and people's not like the fact that I'm basically saying to you right now that I can't rule out a new low but what I can say is I'm not as bearish as I was all of last year or you know since 44k for Bitcoin all the way down and we actually did reallocate for the first time in a long time and but we will get to the price and everything I want to just really get through some of the news because there's a lot of it we'll also talk about the fact that Jamie Diamond is changing his tune about the economic hurricane so we actually covered this Jamie Diamond came out and said there was any kind of economic hurricane on the horizon and he's now saying actually it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case there's a few clouds um but he may have been he didn't mean to predict widespread collapse um and also you've got the likes of uh Paul Krugman saying a similar thing and these were people we actually covered the articles that spoke about their stance on the markets and we were with them on that and actually isn't it interesting how you know we're all kind of um somewhat changing our tune in regards to this drawn out bear Market or you know that's led by higher interest rates and actually now kind of going well look markets are going to start pricing in what's coming down the road and that environment has completely changed with low inflation and you know the only real threat is is something breaking but something typically doesn't break and we did this in yesterday's video Until the yield curve is uninverted which means that markets May rally so I I would definitely say I'm more bullish than I am bearish um we've got a number of other things you know this is from macro Alf if we really get a proper recession in the SPX ultimate low might be in the uh 3200 to 3400s um we also spoke about this I I released a video last night about 10 p.m for me um talking about the debt ceiling so lots of people throwing this around and saying oh no the us is going to default do you really think the U.S will default and not pay their debts for the first time ever which will just basically devalue the debt system and call it all into question and cause complete chaos and Corruption over upping the debt ceiling like they've done continuously and we've actually did speculate as people that do cross-market analysis and say this is probably why the dollars had such a bad time because people are pricing in them raising the debt ceilings thus devaluing the debt and what is currency backed by debt and how does it come into existence so we've done a whole thing on that and also binance was finally uh was Final uh destination for millions in funds from bit bits latto so this was the other day there was some pretty shocking news that the US Regulators were going to come out and they had a crypto statement to make and had everything to do with this exchange this would explain why binance actually um I had those money laundering charges on them previously so like I said a lot to get through guys so let's get through it all crypto lender Genesis files for bankruptcy in latest blow to Barry silbert's uh dcg Empire so this of course um Genesis trading file for bankruptcy after suffering at crippling losses from the collapse of FTX and hedge fund three hours Capital so this is the kind of contagion that we also spoke about um some of Genesis largest clients including Circle you know so there'll be more collaterals as a result of this and of course the Winklevoss twins who own Gemini exchange that used um Genesis trading to facilitate their their Genesis earned program their customers have been absolutely scolded as a result of this and and Tyler's and Cameron threatening legal action against ECG uh CEO after Genesis bankruptcy in actual fact if you understand how bankruptcy works it means that you can't touch the individual behind the company the company basically allegedly owes around about 3.5 billion dollars to top 50 creditors um you actually can't go after the individual behind the company you can only go after the company that's it you know this is kind of how companies or corporate companies work I doubt I've actually had people go bankrupt on me that have owed me money in the past um and and trust me there's nothing you can really do to get the individual and I've actually had personal stories where I've had somebody go bankrupt on me that's owed me money or their business has gone bankrupt and the individual's still been swaning around in a in in a at the time a 16 plate Mercedes anyway um so this is you know what does this mean really is is the interesting well if there was more containing with dcg you've got to remember dcgo grayscale's BTC which we've said actually potentially could be a bit of a a lead indicator for Bitcoin and show you what institutions are doing you know it ran before Bitcoin did um if there was wider spread issues with dcg yeah I think that would be a real issue but we've kind of already known and markets have probably already priced Genesis in you gotta remember at this point we've retraced the entire FTX move which we've have said was on the horizon remember we're doing daily Bitcoin ta videos I didn't get much love you know we call this beautiful just chopping up the ranges and looking for targets all here um and then we were looking for higher targets higher up um we will do actually talk about Bitcoin on the technical level um because actually it's very interesting what it's doing here and you know we remember 5th of January was here ladies and gentlemen so people say we're late to the party we often our late to the party just not this time so yeah what this means you know if there was further contagion I think it would be pretty devastating maybe there are some smaller companies that that suffer as a result of this and the continued blows that the crypto space has dealt out but this is pretty big news that these guys are a filing for bankruptcy it's another one bites the dust and we'll see what's to come from it moving on to some more sort of macroeconomic news or I will actually finish off with some or finish off the crypto news first binance was Final Destination um so essentially this is probably why binance had those um uh money laundering charges slapped on them I can't remember exactly where it was but it probably had a lot to do with this that this is not something I was paying attention to bit bits latter I hadn't even heard of it until they were called into question um but it's certainly interesting explains what's going on with binance um I think that's all the crypto news that we have um or the main crypto news over the past 24 hours before we do some TI let's jump into the macro environment remember this macro environment is being controlled by interest rate hikes interest rate hikes in my opinion are coming to an end we did this by doing an experiment looking at the two-year yields um for the US and said that you know they kind of topped out about 4.9 rates aren't going to go much higher that's about where rates are likely to go actually some markets surprisingly been significantly lower you've got the FED still coming out and talking uh very tough Christine the guard actually made a comment the other day that we can look at potentially uh saying that you know if you're a market business you might want to rethink what we're doing and I do think there's an element of that um but there's also an element of these guys having to talk tough them talking tough is actually monetary policy because it impacts the markets and impacts you know people might it it has that demand destructive event because if they're scaring people they're not going to be forthcoming with what they're buying um but this was interesting so Jamie John is changing his tune about the economic hurricane um and essentially uh after difficult 2022 for investors there may be a ray of light peeking through uh at the start of the new year uh take heart from JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond he clarifies Tuesday that maybe he shouldn't have said last year for a economic hurricane is coming um there are clouds for sure but he didn't mean to predict widespread collapse his bank is still hiring Nobel prize winning Economist Paul Krugman said maybe his worries about the Outlook were overblown as well a soft Landing is more likely than it seemed a few months ago we've actually spoken about all this um outside the US things don't seem as bad as they could have been China's also reopening so that's also quite abolishing for markets generally in the supply chains you know this is the thing I think I think actually some people are rather annoyed that we came out in January and said actually we're not bearish anymore after being bearish for so long you've got to understand it's my job to do that it's my job to look at the markets regardless of what the Sheep are saying you know and going yeah actually we're going to change our tune here doesn't mean we're all in crypto right now what it really means is you know we took a a position and that's all I'm really going to say on it and anybody wants to find out more about that you're welcome to join my patreon if you don't like what you're hearing because you disagree with it and you're still expecting low prices you know I don't know why that's an issue you've got to understand that how markets need both buyers and sellers if you want to continue to be a seller by all means but right now we're saying we're sticking our neck out and everybody else is still bearish calling for multi-year Bear markets and saying actually at this point we're not bearish we still think yeah okay given everything that's going on granted there's potentially low prices but we see reasons to be bullish and we and we've actually gone over them and that spot you know doesn't look too bad here um but make your own mind up guys uh so this is from macro after talking about how you know if that is the case for the s p remember guys we did expect to pull back this this week we've got it a little bit less than what I've what I've expected we actually um speculated on the s p being on on this kind of you know we've all looked at it we looked at a million one times guys and we can look at it again just for argument's sake but we we did call for a pullback we actually thought the dollar would be a bit stronger dollars being horrific to be honest it could have everything to do though with them raising the debt ceiling which is looking very likely that they're gonna have to do this you actually have the bear narrative and the Bears pushing the fact that they think the US will default if you understood what it meant for the US to default you'd understand that they will not do that especially under the context that they have the option not to the debt ceiling is more like a rooftop bar all you can eat buffet with um narcotics freely available that's what that the debt ceiling is guys and this was interesting so this This Is Us right versus credit card debt um so the U.S savings rate is obviously in green credit card debts in in in in in red um I want to I brought this up because I want to make a point on metrics that's showing it's a really bad time well if you look historically bad times have been the right time to buy certainly when it's Peak bad times now maybe that's me filling my own narrative here um but you know we'll see um and and take for that what you will but there is still this sort of quite I guess gloomy economic situation with rate hikes and they're not really stimulating but you've got to understand that actually that's been priced in over probably the last two years uh or a year and probably aggressively priced it's really been priced since November when all markets sold off in expectation that that rates were going to go up um so I don't really want to Waffle on for too much longer you know this is rates going up for the first time in February look at what your markets did on the on the pretext of that I mean even something like gold you know it sold off more with it going Goldstone fantastic scores for 2K gold at the moment uh calls for a silver going through the roof um but using Bitcoin and the Spy as an example you know they sold off in preempt to this will they rally on preemptive it potentially going up and actually if you look at markets where am I here I am um they're potentially pricing in rates going up uh you know into the future now so they're not no longer looking for downside more looking for upside in my opinion anyway that's all I've got for you in this video guys I don't want to keep you on for too much longer if you've enjoyed this content like it's always appreciate it so as a comment and I look forward to seeing you all in the next YouTube video have a fantastic or a fabulous Friday guys see you in the next one
Comments 0