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The biggest technology story on Wall Street has been artificial intelligence. And for years, Nvidia has been one of the clearest ways for investors to participate in that story. But two famous investors are now looking somewhere else. Michael Burry, the investor best known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has been buying shares of Adobe.
At the same time, billionaire investor Bill Ackman has taken a new position in S&P Global. Both companies have recently faced pressure from investors. And that may be exactly what attracted these two contrarian investors. The interesting question is not whether Burry and Ackman are buying. The real question is why they believe the market may have become too pessimistic about these businesses.
Let's begin with Adobe. Adobe is one of the world's best-known software companies. Its products are deeply embedded in creative work, marketing, design, photography, and digital content production. But artificial intelligence has completely changed the conversation around the company. New AI tools can generate images, edit videos, create graphics, and perform tasks that once required specialized software.
That has created a major concern among investors. If AI can make content faster and cheaper, does that reduce the value of Adobe's products? The market has clearly worried about that possibility. Adobe shares have suffered a major decline, making the company look very different from the high-growth technology stock investors were excited about several years ago.
But Michael Burry sees another possibility. He appears to believe investors may be underestimating Adobe's ability to adapt to artificial intelligence. Instead of simply fighting the AI revolution, Adobe has been incorporating AI into its own ecosystem. Its Firefly technology is designed to bring generative AI directly into Adobe's creative products.
That could be extremely important. Adobe already has a massive installed user base. If those users can access powerful AI features without leaving Adobe's platform, artificial intelligence could actually make the company's products more valuable. There is also an important advantage that Adobe has over many newer AI companies, trust.
Large businesses and professional creators often care about copyright, licensing, and commercial usage. An AI-generated image might look impressive, but businesses still need to know whether they can legally use that content. Adobe has positioned Firefly around commercially safer, licensed content. That could become an important selling point as companies become more careful about AI-generated material.
Burry's investment therefore appears to be based on a simple idea. The market may be treating AI as a threat to Adobe, when it could eventually become one of Adobe's biggest growth opportunities. But Adobe still faces serious challenges. Competition is increasing. AI development is moving extremely quickly, and customers may become less willing to pay premium prices if increasingly capable alternatives become available.
So, Burry's bet is far from risk-free. Now, consider Bill Ackman's investment. His target is S&P Global. At first glance, it may seem like a strange company to mention in the same conversation as Adobe and Nvidia. S&P Global is not an AI chip manufacturer. It is not a consumer technology company, and it does not have the same excitement surrounding it as the biggest technology stocks.
But, that may be precisely why Ackman is interested. S&P Global operates several powerful businesses, including credit ratings, financial indexes, and commodity pricing information. These businesses are deeply embedded in the global financial system. Its ratings business is especially important. When companies issue debt, investors rely on credit ratings to assess risk.
And S&P Global operates in an industry where competition is relatively concentrated. Its index business is another major asset. The S&P 500 is one of the most recognizable stock market indexes in the world. Financial institutions use S&P Global's indexes and data for investment products, benchmarking, and other financial activities.
These are businesses that can generate recurring revenue and benefit from long-term relationships with customers. So, why has S&P Global come under pressure? One concern is artificial intelligence. Investors are increasingly asking whether AI could make financial information easier to access and therefore less valuable.
If AI can quickly retrieve and summarize information, some traditional data businesses could face pressure. Ackman's argument is essentially that the market may be misunderstanding the nature of S&P Global's competitive advantage. Its most valuable businesses are not simply selling pieces of information.
They operate important financial infrastructure. Credit ratings are part of the debt markets. Indexes are built into trillions of dollars of investment products. Commodity pricing benchmarks can influence transactions across global industries. That is very different from simply selling a database that an AI chatbot could potentially reproduce.
And this is where the investment strategies of Burry and Ackman begin to look surprisingly similar. Both are searching for businesses that have been pushed down because investors fear technological disruption. Burry is betting that Adobe can survive and potentially benefit from AI. Ackman is betting that S&P Global's core franchises are more durable than the market currently believes.
Neither investor is necessarily saying that artificial intelligence does not matter. They are betting that the market may be overestimating its destructive impact on certain established companies. That is an important distinction. There is another reason these investments are attracting attention. The broader market has been heavily concentrated around AI.
Companies connected to artificial intelligence have attracted enormous amounts of investor capital. Nvidia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. But when everyone is focused on the same group of stocks, other companies can become overlooked. That is the opportunity Burry and Ackman appear to be pursuing.
They are looking where the crowd is not. For Burry, Adobe represents a beaten-down technology company with a large customer base, strong brand recognition, and a potentially powerful AI strategy. For Ackman, S&P Global represents a high-quality financial information business whose competitive advantages may be stronger than recent market sentiment suggests.
But there is an important warning for individual investors. Following famous investors is not the same thing as understanding their investments. Burry and Ackman have different strategies, different risk tolerances, and different investment horizons. They can also withstand volatility that may be extremely uncomfortable for an ordinary investor.
A stock can fall significantly even when the underlying investment thesis is correct. And sometimes a contrarian investor can simply be wrong. That means the better question is not what did Burry buy, or what did Ackman buy. The better question is what do they believe the market is getting wrong? In Adobe's case, the debate is about whether artificial intelligence destroys the company's moat or strengthens it.
In S&P Global's case, the debate is whether AI makes its information businesses less valuable or whether its ratings, indexes, and financial infrastructure remain difficult to replace. Those questions could determine whether these stocks eventually recover. There is also a timing issue. A beaten-down stock can become a great investment if the business fundamentals remain strong.
But a stock can also remain cheap for years if the underlying problem is real. That is why investors should not confuse a falling share price with a bargain. The business still has to deliver. Adobe needs to demonstrate that AI can translate into sustainable growth rather than simply protecting its existing customer base.
S&P Global needs to show that its competitive advantages can continue producing strong earnings even as technology changes the financial information industry. If they succeed, today's pessimism could eventually look excessive. If they fail, the stocks could remain under pressure. So, should investors forget Nvidia and buy these two stocks instead?
Not necessarily. The more useful lesson is that Nvidia is not the only way to invest in technological change. The AI revolution is creating winners in semiconductors, cloud computing, software, cybersecurity, data, and financial infrastructure. Some of those opportunities may already be extremely popular.
Others may be sitting quietly in parts of the market that investors have temporarily abandoned. That is where Michael Burry and Bill Ackman are looking. They are not chasing the hottest stocks on Wall Street. They are searching for companies where expectations have fallen faster than the underlying businesses.
And that strategy can be extremely rewarding if the market has become too pessimistic. But it can also be painful if the market has correctly identified a permanent change in the business. For now, Adobe and S&P Global represent two very different versions of the same contrarian idea. The market sees risks.
Burry and Ackman see potential. The next few years will reveal whether they found genuine bargains or simply caught falling knives. And for investors watching from the sidelines, that may be the most important question of all.
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